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2020 Election Thoughts


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14 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The county where Trump held his rally had the lowest turnout in the state. 

I honestly don't understand the point of those rallies. The people who go to them are 99.99% gonna vote for Trump anyhow. I know if I were staunch of enough of a supporter for someone to go to their rallies, you bet your ass I'm gonna vote for them. 

Edited by chw42
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Fulton and DeKalb still have 23,000 to go...

 

Black voters again comprised 29% of the electorate, almost exactly approximating their turnout in November, which is frankly unheard of for a January runoff. And it's not just that. Ossoff was beating Perdue 93% to 7% among Black voters, nearly a double-digit improvement on Biden's performance.
 
What explains the Black turnout? One factor may well be Rev. Raphael Warnock's candidacy. Warnock, the head of Ebenezer Baptist Church, took considerable incoming from Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) during the runoff for his ties to the Black church community -- including controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright. It's uniquely possible those attacks backfired on Loeffler (and Perdue) -- serving as an impetus for the Black community to turn out in droves to vote for the two Democrats.
 
Trump won suburban Georgia voters by 3 points in November; Perdue is ahead of Ossoff by just 2 points. And perhaps as importantly, suburban voters turned out in similar numbers in the Senate runoffs as they did in the November general election. In November, suburbanites were 61% of the overall electorate, while on Tuesday they were also 61%.
 
Assuming those numbers hold, it suggests that Trump has done damage to the Republican brand among suburban voters that goes well beyond just races where he is on the ballot. And extrapolating further, if the suburbs are now a pure toss-up across the country, that would be, generally speaking, scary news for Republicans.
 
 
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At the same precinct, Jim Earwood, a 67-year-old retiree, said he appreciated Trump’s ceaseless commentary on the Georgia election, from his early and uncorroborated claims of fraud to his weekend call to the secretary of state.

“I’m glad he’s involved,” Earwood said. “Everybody says he’s not presidential, and that’s what I like about him.”

As he left the Christian church that served as a polling place, Earwood said he voted all Republican.

“I wouldn’t vote for a Dem here lately unless they let Jesus on the ticket,” he said.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/perdue-ossoff-loeffler-warnock-georgia-senate/2021/01/05/7d7b5afe-4f5d-11eb-83e3-322644d82356_story.html

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4 hours ago, chw42 said:

I honestly don't understand the point of those rallies. The people who go to them are 99.99% gonna vote for Trump anyhow. I know if I were staunch of enough of a supporter for someone to go to their rallies, you bet your ass I'm gonna vote for them. 

I mean this time it was mostly to let Trump yell about how the election was stolen, but otherwise look above - getting turnout among white nonvoters has been Trumps thing. They go to the confederate flag waving rallies, get excited, and that drives turnout.

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4 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

The county where Trump held his rally had the lowest turnout in the state. 

Three ways to view this. 

You know turnout will be low there so send your best person their to rally. 

Or,  you know he's a liability but you have to put him somewhere,  so send him to the fewest voters. 

He's turning off the moderate, sane, voters and the once grand old party will dive to the mainstream over the next two years. 

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Most polling and predictions had the Democrats taking control of the Senate and increasing their lead in the House.  On general election day, neither happened, and things were looking a bit grim.  But winning both Senate seats in Georgia is a massive win for the Democrats.  Not only does it give them the majority in the Senate, but the state has effectively flipped blue.  I do believe, however, that Trump and his merry band of dunces really hurt their chances in these special elections.

The one person at the center of what has happened is Georgia is Stacey Abrams.  She has done a remarkable job, and as I saw someone tweet yesterday, Biden should put her in charge of everything: Vaccine rollout, get out the vote, major league baseball...

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8 hours ago, chw42 said:

Yeah I realize that. But you gotta admit that he's honest in the face of defeat.

Sad that nowadays this is unexpected.  Even Rome fell and we're the Rome of today.

8 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

And the best part is if the President doesn't spend the last two months shitting on the electoral process, the GOP wins these two seats running away. 

Thanks Trump.

There were 53,000 more votes cast for Republican senatorial candidates than Democrats in the general election. Something turned that around and you're probably correct on the reason.

6 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Trump entered the WH  with a Republican House and Senate. Now it looks like he lost it all. Maybe he was right. Maybe they got sick of winning.

Botching the COVID and acting like a damn fool too much will do it every time.
 

Edited by Stinky Stanky
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5 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Not so bold prediction. The Republicans will regain the Senate at the midterms. 

Probably.  The next two years will be critical for the Biden administration to get stuff done.

If the GOP is wise, they will need to push Trump out of the picture and start to rebuild some of their reputation.  Trump did a lot of damage to the party.  If they continue to support his conspiracy theory rantings, they may not be able to regain control of the Senate in 2022.

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15 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Not so bold prediction. The Republicans will regain the Senate at the midterms. 

Bold prediction: Dems gain seats.

I'm basing it on Trump taking a hold of the party. Unless they purge him from the party, he'll motivate Democratic voters, but without him on the ballot, the turnout isn't there for the GOP.

Lara Trump running in North Carolina is a disaster waiting to happen. If other GOP candidates try to court Trump's favor, it's only going to motivate the left.

 

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Today will be the final act trying to stay on Trump's good side. I have no idea why. His endorsement doesn't mean much now, and in 4 years it will mean nothing. These morons willing to wreck democracy for him don't pay any attention. Does Ted Cruz really think Trump will endorse him for POTUS in 4 years? Look at the spot he has put Mike Pence in. A guy way too loyal, but who is about to get shit on for not doing what he has no power to do.  In the end, that's what happens to everyone.

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14 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Today will be the final act trying to stay on Trump's good side. I have no idea why. His endorsement doesn't mean much now, and in 4 years it will mean nothing. These morons willing to wreck democracy for him don't pay any attention. Does Ted Cruz really think Trump will endorse him for POTUS in 4 years? Look at the spot he has put Mike Pence in. A guy way too loyal, but who is about to get shit on for not doing what he has no power to do.  In the end, that's what happens to everyone.

But does anyone expect the MAGA base to vanish overnight?

He's either going to drive a wedge between the party or they're going to triple down on MAGA.

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9 minutes ago, Quin said:

But does anyone expect the MAGA base to vanish overnight?

He's either going to drive a wedge between the party or they're going to triple down on MAGA.

The Republican Party is essentially the QAnon party right now. It all depends on what direction QAnon goes. If they triple down on MAGA, so does the base. If QAnon suddenly decides that Trump was part of the liberal child sex cult all along, then they'll anoint someone else.

The smartest direction for the party to go is Nikki Haley, so we know that's where they won't go.

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58 minutes ago, Stinky Stanky said:

What's the breakdown on seats that are up for re-election at that time?

2010 to 2016 to 2022. The Tea Party wave election and the Trump winning election come up. 14 are held by Democrats, 20 by Republicans after last night.

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32 minutes ago, Quin said:

But does anyone expect the MAGA base to vanish overnight?

He's either going to drive a wedge between the party or they're going to triple down on MAGA.

It will go away. Eric Trump is on TV now saying any republican Congressman or Senator that doesn't object today, well their political career is over. They will be primaried by a MAGA person. 2 years from now, this is going to fade, 4 years from now. no one will want anything to do with Trump except a few extreme kooks. 6 years from now, when some of these terms are up, never being a Trump supporter will be a feather in their cap.

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14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

2010 to 2016 to 2022. The Tea Party wave election and the Trump winning election come up. 14 are held by Democrats, 20 by Republicans after last night.

Two of the seats, PA and WI, are held by Republicans in states that Biden just won. All the rest of the seats are held by the same party that won the state in 2020.

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2 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Two of the seats, PA and WI, are held by Republicans in states that Biden just won. All the rest of the seats are held by the same party that won the state in 2020.

Rubio is up and that’s going to be a fun primary to watch. 

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