Sox Draft Carlos Rodon> Draft Day Discussion Thread

[ptatc]

Hoping for Aiken/Rodon falling to us. Just want to hear any name but these for the first two picks.

 

If they don't fall I want Nola way under slot.

With the way all the experts have him climbing the boards, do you really think he'll sign for any significant under slot?

[fathom]

Hoping for Aiken/Rodon falling to us. Just want to hear any name but these for the first two picks.

 

If they don't fall I want Nola way under slot.

 

Why would Nola take way under slot? If the Sox pass on him, he'd still go no later than 8 it seems.

[ptatc]

This thread will be fun to revisit 3-5 years from now.

I'm hoping to be alive and that point to have people take shots at me.

[Heads22]

I think our pick is totally dependent on Miami's interest in Jackson

[caulfield12]

There is something to be said for the still good stuff, with better command and proven against more advanced competition.

 

 

It's also one of the reasons it was difficult to judge Hawkins as a Texas prep hitter...

 

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2086538...-draft-prospect

 

You read this and you can understand why Aiken is Cooper's #1 guy.

 

I always had the idea that Aiken was low 90's, but comfortable 92-93 at his age, with that frame....impressive kid. Driven/determined.

According to this article, he's touched 98 before. Plus, he's going to fill out even more, one would think.

[southsider2k5]

If the Sox are split on Kolek/Nola it's just because they are afraid.

 

Upside on a healthy Nola realistically is going to be a 3 type of guy. He'll get there quicker, and if he does well then he's probably easier to extend. Downside #1 is he loses stuff and is a MLB #5 starter or reliever. Downside #2 is he just gets hurt and flames out. Extra factor here is that if you clearly pass on Kolek to take this guy, no matter what Nola does, if Kolek turns out you're going to have to live with letting your same-city rival or your same-division rival get an ace because you were too scared to put your balls on the line. And for that you would deserve to be fired.

 

Upside on a healthy Kolek realistically is going to be a 1-3 type of guy, depending almost entirely on his mental ability & composure on the mound along with his breaking ball, probably just one of the slider/curve to go with a change. If the secondary stuff comes along and he's a gamer on the mound, he's a true ace. Kolek might take an extra 1-1.5 years, still putting him as a fit with our core. Kolek would cost more money though if he does really well, and we'd have to be more aggressive in pursuing an extension to buy out his arb years. Downside #1 is he loses stuff or doesn't have the mental makeup and is more like a Gavin Floyd #3 type. Downside #2 is he also flames out. Extra factor here is that if you clearly pass on Nola to take Kolek, nodoby f***ing cares. No matter what Nola does, you're not missing anything in Nola you can't acquire through lesser means. From a hotseat standpoint, Kolek and his upside is the safer pick.

 

Then you have the trade value perspective. Let's say whoever you pick is going to be packaged in a big deal for a young star player. The next time there's one of these Stanton types out there, or whoever, what do you think the team you're dealing with would rather have, Kolek or Nola? If you have any worries whatsoever on Kolek once he's in your system, you can always deal him off for a haul assuming he's healthy and you're getting the deal done in time.

 

The game of baseball is based around pitching. Assuming 2 players are both healthy (and there is NO reason to assume Kolek is an injury risk while Nola is not, that's absurd, all pitchers are risks) and also assuming both players have the proper mental aspects/composure on the mound, the bigger, nastier guy with the much better arm is the one you want on the mound because he is going to have the best chance between the two of them of consistently getting hitters out.

 

What? There was someone yesterday b****ing about Joe Borchard. From the year 2000. People still bring up White Flag from 1997. They still talk about the 1994 World Championship that would be.

 

If there is anything White Sox fans do well it is remember and b**** about the past, of course that mostly happens from home, and not at the stadium, but that is another discussion.

 

[BlackSox13]

This. His command is his biggest selling point right now. Very advanced pitchability. Plus fastball and a couple other potential plus offerings.

I like what I've read, but what scares me is Nola's scouting reports sounds a bit like Broadway. You know, good command with good off speed pitches. But Nola is not Broadway so if the Sox draft him all we can do is hope Nola doesn't turn out to be Broadway 2.0.

[royoung]

Hawk is far more dialed in than you think. They still seek his opinions on players, and he talks to scouts all the time.

 

I believe they ask his opinions as he has been around the game of baseball for 50 years, but I don't think he's a big influence. If anything, Steve Stone's brain would be the one to pick, as we are considering several different pitchers.

[DirtySox]

Didn't he say just a couple of days ago Kolek to the Sox was the biggest lock of the draft?

 

How about we not s*** up this thread with your routine Law bashing?

[Eminor3rd]

With Kolek's late "slide," might he be abetter financial deal than we thought at #3?

[Eminor3rd]

How about we not s*** up this thread with your routine Law bashing?

 

Seconded.

[TaylorStSox]

He isn't a max effort guy like Peavy though. Everything I've read is he will be fine

There isn't a human on this planet that doesn't need max effort to throw that hard. Maybe his body can take it, but that would make him the exception.

[The Ultimate Champion]

There is something to be said for the still good stuff, with better command and proven against more advanced competition.

Agree, but again, we're not picking mid-to-late round here. Players like this exist in every draft, and you can find/develop them out of other organizations using lesser assets than the #3 overall draft pick. I mean, if we had an excellent RHSP between Sale and Q as your top 3 but needed something behind that, would you really be worried about the Sox having to find a #3-4 somewhere? We can pick these guys up whenever thanks to Mr. Cooper.

 

Also if the Sox are concerned about getting players here as quickly as possible then obviously they still haven't learned anything because that goes completely against their stated current philosophy. Get the best players on the farm you can, develop them as best you can, try to figure out which ones you should trade and then do it, and when you call up players, make sure they're ready to be here and good enough to be here. Sox need to start at Step 1, not Step 4 or 5, and they need to go with the upside here.

 

[ptatc]

I said I want, as a biased Sox fan. Hahn has been alluding to us signing under slot for the overall draft for a while. If we could could draft Nola and sign him less than or equal to 5 million it would be a nice shot in the arm for the rest of the draft.

 

3rd pick - 5.72 million

8th pick - 3.91 million

I don't its realistic to think he will sign for significantly under slot so you would need to go to your next pick who you think is worthy of that slot.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Why would Nola take way under slot? If the Sox pass on him, he'd still go no later than 8 it seems.

I agree he's not going to be taken for way under but after the 3rd pick there's a big time drop off so we could potentially work something out prepick, even if it's a top guy. From 3 to 8 that's 2.5 mil on the table.

[royoung]

I like what I've read, but what scares me is Nola's scouting reports sounds a bit like Broadway. You know, good command with good off speed pitches. But Nola is not Broadway so if the Sox draft him all we can do is hope Nola doesn't turn out to be Broadway 2.0.

 

Aaron Fitt of BA saw his start in the SEC Tournament against Arkansas and said he was at 95-96 in a first inning or so, then sat 92-94 until the 8th. That would do just fine.

[DirtySox]

I like what I've read, but what scares me is Nola's scouting reports sounds a bit like Broadway. You know, good command with good off speed pitches. But Nola is not Broadway so if the Sox draft him all we can do is hope Nola doesn't turn out to be Broadway 2.0.

 

The "safe" pick at 1-3 is different than the "safe" pick at 1-15, which is where Broadway went.

[Buehrle>Wood]

How about we not s*** up this thread with your routine Law bashing?

Screw that he deserves to be called out for that comment if he's backtracking already.

[ptatc]

Agree, but again, we're not picking mid-to-late round here. Players like this exist in every draft, and you can find/develop them out of other organizations using lesser assets than the #3 overall draft pick. I mean, if we had an excellent RHSP between Sale and Q as your top 3 but needed something behind that, would you really be worried about the Sox having to find a #3-4 somewhere? We can pick these guys up whenever thanks to Mr. Cooper.

 

Also if the Sox are concerned about getting players here as quickly as possible then obviously they still haven't learned anything because that goes completely against their stated current philosophy. Get the best players on the farm you can, develop them as best you can, try to figure out which ones you should trade and then do it, and when you call up players, make sure they're ready to be here and good enough to be here. Sox need to start at Step 1, not Step 4 or 5, and they need to go with the upside here.

I don't think there are many pitchers with mid-90's stuff and his reported command. Usually the "impeccable" control guys sit around 90-92.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I like what I've read, but what scares me is Nola's scouting reports sounds a bit like Broadway. You know, good command with good off speed pitches. But Nola is not Broadway so if the Sox draft him all we can do is hope Nola doesn't turn out to be Broadway 2.0.

Lance Broadway up here was pretty much exactly Scott Carroll. Not the same type of quality starts Carroll made, but overall very similar.

 

If you assume you're going to fall some it's best to start out at a higher point. Rarely do players drafted/prospects become everything they were touted as, so if you're touted as an ace then you have a ways to fall while still being useful along the way, but if your best case scenario is a #2 (which IMO is another way of saying #3-4 stuff that overachieves, and personally I just believe in 1's, 3's and 5's in terms of stuff with the mental/pitching aspects positioning some as 2's or 4's) then you don't have very far to slide to still be useful. Even as relievers, Kolek's ceiling is a nasty closer, Nola's is more like a decent setup man.

[DirtySox]

Screw that he deserves to be called out for that comment if he's backtracking already.

 

Backtracking already? He said Kolek is still a possibility. This changes. All the time. Certainty doesn't exist. Welcome to the draft.

[Dick Allen]

I believe they ask his opinions as he has been around the game of baseball for 50 years, but I don't think he's a big influence. If anything, Steve Stone's brain would be the one to pick, as we are considering several different pitchers.

This is what I don't understand. Stone is just as anti-saber as Hawk. He mentions wins when judging pitchers seasons. Yet it is totally ignored. I do agree he knows a bit about pitching, and when they had the TJ segment the other day, his part where he showed how the younger HS guys throw breaking balls incorrectly causing eventual problems was top notch. But Stone is just as anti-HS pitcher as Hawk.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Backtracking already? He said Kolek is still a possibility. This changes. All the time. Certainty doesn't exist. Welcome to the draft.

According to Future Sox he called it a lock. So yes, welcome to the draft, Keith Law.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I don't think there are many pitchers with mid-90's stuff and his reported command. Usually the "impeccable" control guys sit around 90-92.

According to Perfect Game, that's exactly what he is.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9818

 

Edit: we should expect Nola to touch 95 as much as we should expect Kolek to touch 102.

 

Nola is a low-90s guy with great command of the fastball and change.

 

Kolek draws comps to Nolan Ryan and Kerry Wood.

 

If you're a-scared, buy a dog. Then you take Kolek.

Edited June 5, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[TaylorStSox]

This is what I don't understand. Stone is just as anti-saber as Hawk. He mentions wins when judging pitchers seasons. Yet it is totally ignored. I do agree he knows a bit about pitching, and when they had the TJ segment the other day, his part where he showed how the younger HS guys throw breaking balls incorrectly causing eventual problems was top notch. But Stone is just as anti-HS pitcher as Hawk.

 

It's probably because Stone isn't a loudmouth idiot.

 

Anyway, it still blows my mind with how infatuated people are with velocity. Movement and control have always, and will always, be more important than velocity.