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This isn't hard, dude. "His stats get way better when you factor in a little bit of respect from the umpires on how good his batting eye is." OK, that's an argument for why he will improve, and it's even a decent argument in that regard. What you said combined with what I said and, at the very least, Moncada is an above average MLB second baseman. But some people are going to be antsy about it until that actually comes to fruition. That's understandable. And yes, some results matter in 2018. But they need context. Giolito's overall stats are awful, but if you look at the last month or so, it's been much better. That's an important caveat for how we look at him going into the off season. Moncada's overall stats are below average, but if you look at certain aspects it gets better. It's stupid to throw out these results entirely, but they need context. So yeah, results matter, and if you're not looking at results at all, you're doing it wrong.

Frankly, because “woulda, coulda, shoulda” isn’t going to win us a ring. It makes us feel better about things, but it doesn’t help achieve the goal. Is it a decent argument as to why he can and should feasibly improve along my predicted lines? Sure. But until it turns into end results, it’s not going to mean a ton to many people. Do I share their complete despair? No, but I understand it. Results matter.

Looking at Batting Average alone really doesn't do justice to the type of hitter he is. He's not a one dimensional high average hitter. Much of his value comes from bases on balls, xbh, and speed.

Loved Fisk for that. I am old school and don't mind pitching inside at all. In fact, I believe you have to to be effective. I understand moving a guy off the plate and yea even intentionally hitting a guy. However, you should hit him where Kopech did (ass by accounts) but I don't believe in 99mph. 90 mph , (for Kopech might be a change up LOL) is plenty and you actually have to throw it hard enough to control it. Forever it has been part of the game up until the last 25 years or so. If you homered, you expected/prepared to get buzzed the next time. Some guys would buzz you twice so you knew the first wasn't a mistake. Look at this quote in a story from Callum Hughson of Dusty Baker being warned about Bob Gibson by Hank Aaron “(Hank Aaron told me) ‘Don’t dig in against Bob Gibson, he’ll knock you down. He’d knock down his own grandmother if she dared to challenge him. Don’t stare at him, don’t smile at him, don’t talk to him. He doesn’t like it. If you happen to hit a home run, don’t run too slow, don’t run too fast. If you happen to want to celebrate, get in the tunnel first. And if he hits you, don’t charge the mound, because he’s a Gold Glove boxer.’ I’m like, ‘Damn, what about my 17-game hitting streak?’ That was the night it ended.” —Dusty Baker

https://mobile.twitter.com/KnightsBaseball/status/1029752223646011393 Kopech starts April 4th and 9th in Charlotte. They fly to Indy, the Sox announce he and Eloy are coming up on the 11th. Eloy makes his debut on the 12th, and Kopech on the 14th.

I disagree with this statement wholeheartedly and pivot it more to a conversation about people who played the game for an extended period of time vs. those who didn't. You are taught to take the game out of the umps hands with two strikes. What that means is, as a hitter, you are typically taught to slightly expand your zone with 2 strikes so that you don't give up an at bat. Period. Moncada looks at too many close pitches and quite frankly too many pitches in general (that are in the hitting zone). This is an approach thing and while he absolutely has a good eye, he also is not near aggressive enough and is going to have to look at film and come up with an adjusted strategy. The entire Sox offensive coaching staff is essentially blasting Moncada for not being aggressive and it goes back to this basic concept that is essentially grounded in baseball players heads from a young age. And even as strike out numbers amount, the reason people are striking out a lot more isn't because they don't swing with 2 strikes and let strikes go looking...its cause they swing as hard as they can every damn time (vs. shifting an approach with 2 strikes to be more contact specific...look for the base hit vs. the HR).

Posts like these make it clear to me as to who watches games and who doesn't. If he were getting rung up on pitches that were an inch off the zone I wouldn't care as much. But when he routinely gets called out on pitches quite literally 5-6 inches off the zone, pitches that are called a strike in their respective locations 0-5% of the time, I really can't fault him for it, and neither should you

Fantastic post (and a first post too). Welcome to the board and completely agree with everything you said, as well as what Sir has articulated.

There's a lot to like about going through this thread again. Some of what was posted here was predictive, and some posts were way off. [Both by myself and others.] "He has nothing left to learn in AAA. He's bored in AAA. He'll play up to his competition in the Bigs. And so on...

You are correct. So look at OPS instead. I don't care that Moncada is hitting .219; I do care that his OPS is .695. And looking at month-by-month, he did .877, .582, .592, .749, .606 so far. One excellent month, one average month, and three Engel months. The fact of the matter is that Ks must come down. Right now, he's striking out at a 35% rate. If he could get that down to 27% (190 Ks in 700 PAs), he could be at least above average. A .325 BABIP (assuming 25 HRs, and this is roughly his BABIP in MLB time with us) and 10% BB-rate with that K-rate would give him 160 hits in 630 ABs (.254 BA). OBP of .329. Assume 30 2Bs and 5 3Bs, and he accumulates 275 TBs for an SLG of .437. OPS is .766. Not bad, and he'd certainly be a starting two-bagger, maybe even top-10 in MLB. But not Robinson Cano, as many (I think) were hoping for. Now let's imagine if he can get down to current Kris Bryant levels (although I will add that Bryant started at where I have Moncada ending in the last scenario, but he was more polished, fine, OK). So give him a 20% K-rate, like Bryant attained last year. 140 Ks in 700 PAs. BABIP of .325 (and because he's not K'ing as much, we'll predict 30 HRs). Some of those looking Ks have now morphed into well-deserved walks, so he has a 15% BB-rate. That's 105 BBs (elite batting eye- this is totally possible). That BABIP and aforementioned assumptions gives us 168 hits in 595 ABs, for a .282 BA (OBP of .390). Assume 35 2Bs (again, less time striking out means more time to drill the ball into the gap) and 5 3Bs. That's 303 TBs for an SLG of .505 and an OPS of .899. That is what we traded Chris freakin' Sale for. But the Ks must come down. P.S. just for fun, if I took the 20% K-rate but kept everything else at his 2018 rates, here's what you'd get in 700 PAs: ABs- 627 BBs- 73 Hs- 178 2Bs- 30 3Bs- 7 HRs- 22 BA- .284 OBP- .359 SLG- .459 OPS- .818 That level is reached simply by cutting his Ks (albeit significantly). That's all based on his exact rates for BBs, XBHs of each type, and his current BABIP. No improvement except the K-rate. If he can start being aggressive earlier in counts and defensive later in them, he can be a perennial All Star. And like some have said, teaching Yoan to be more like Tim Anderson will be a lot easier than teaching Tim Anderson to be like Yoan.

I guess when it comes down to it, there is just a group of posters who can't handle the fact that the rebuild will take time, and that players might take some time to hit their potential. It happens. If you are so caught up in just looking at strikeouts and OPS to not see that Moncada has superstar talent in him, then you aren't watching baseball the right way. Moncada is still a pretty raw player. He also appears to be a super headstrong kid who, despite obviously having the entire White Sox coaching staff telling him to be more aggressive, hasn't been willing to listen to them, at least until this point. The thing that gives me more faith in him than in most are what his specific problems are. His strike outs are hugely exaggerated by refusing to swing at pitches which are even a spec of dust out of the strike zone. This is a problem that is much easier to fix than the problem of guys who chase out of the zone. Even just having the umpires give him the respect he deserves on the zone will make a huge difference. He will gain 50 OPS points just from that.

Here you go, right along with Kipnis...exactly in the middle of the pack for MLB 2B https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Of course, the problem is that it has been all downhill since April 23 when he was already around 1.8! Are people really saying they’d STILL prefer Moncada at 1.1 compared to a 3-4 fWAR and picking 4th-6th instead???

No, my point is that Ozzie Albies hasn't been that good since May (I used the last month because it happened to be a little worse). Yet to the Longo's of the world, he's some sort of cult god even though Moncada has a much higher ceiling.

Just quit. This take is so hot, planets revolve around it.

Christ, we get it. You like hot dogs.

The Offspring were my first big rock concert experience. Spring of 95 at the Aragon. Quicksand and No Use for a Name opened up. I saw a dude get a popcorn size tub of beer spilled on his head and a brawl break out within the first 30 minutes lol. Good times.

Nice. Good tune and band.

It is more than a 20 game brutal stretch. He hit .274-April, .205- May, .197-June .231-July .182-August. Luckily he had a solid April. He is not extremely young by today's standards but he is fairly new to US baseball.

I don't get your argument man. Are you trying to say that Moncada is already an extremely good player? If so, then you have some pretty low standards. Moncada has to prove that he is a good player. So far he has been nothing but hype. Also, you can't just throw out his bad months and say he is having a good year. Every team would have 5-7 all stars if we just threw out all the bad stretches of their season.

Who cares about Albies. I’m not sure why he continues to be brought up in this thread. He’s irrelevant to Moncada.

I really can't understand this. Small sample size is a constant defense of Moncada. But now, a small sample of an otherwise terrific season is an argument against Albies? AYFKM?

This is dumb. Moncada was a super highly regarded prospect who looked pretty nice and shiny, but also struck out a lot in the minors. Luis Robert is a super highly regarded prospect who looks pretty nice and shiny, but also strikes out a lot in the minors. Maybe you're joking about the Cuban thing, but it's not crazy to see similarities and be a little unnerved by them.

But if we all concede that he’s gotten hosed on probably 20, maybe even close to 30 called strikes that should have been balls, his k rate comes down significantly. Nobody can argue he hasn’t at least gotten “unlucky” with called third strikes, which is something that just doesn’t show up in the stat line. If even 10 at bats change from strikeouts to walks it has a 6 point effect on BA and a 20 point effect on OBP. now imagine a year he was “lucky” in that department

Well, we’ll see what happens next year. I’m trying not to get lumped in with the crazies- I do think Moncada will come around. I just think the lack of contact and bad approach shouldn’t keep him in Chicago anymore. He should go down for the rest of the Charlotte season, and then see if he deserves to come back.

Ya don't say?

51% hit probability

Lol, traded chris fucking sale for this kid and he was the top piece in the deal.

I don't think most 2B's even get to that ball.

I'm okay with losing for the draft but c'mon Yoan, sheesh.

One thing to keep in mind is that he's had something like 6 or 7 runs added on to his total this year because of horribly blown strike 3 calls not being made. The start in Texas is the perfect representation of that. If I didn't know any of the stats, I would say he's looked like a 3 to 3.25 ERA pitcher this year.

this is a good thread

They’re not excuses when they’re quantifiable and objective. sure, it doesn’t mean he’d be an all-star with normal umps, but they certainly have played a role

Sorry, that doesn't cause a hole in your bat. Yes he's been screwed a lot on pitches, but how about not falling behind in the count so quickly every at bat by not having a solid plan at the plate. The kid has had every excuse in the world made for him this year. His hit tool is just flat out awful.

it's in his head and I don't blame him. Never seen a season long screw job like this. It's probably about the difference in 50 OPS points.

Ozzie mentioned his body language as well. Says it doesn't look like he enjoys himself playing. I still think he will be alright, and think some of the body language is because he's not used to having a hard time playing baseball. But it is worth noting, this guy got paid before he became a major leaguer. The motivation may not be as great, and it would only be natural.

to be fair, post ASB, Yoan is 151/275/279

Welcome to the dark side

If the minor league season was longer, I'd say it's getting close to demotion time. It's so disappointing to see how much worse he is as a hitter now compared to when he came up last season.

Another great exhibit of how badly he's pulling off the ball. If it's not inner half, he has absolutely no chance. That was the 3 worst swings he's had in an at bat this year. Keep up the great work Yoan and Steverson.

The math just doesn't work. There are 30 teams with 8.5 starting position players per game (since DH/no DH). That's 255 regulars. Even if you want to cut that number in half and say that only the top half teams should be counted, now you're at 128 regulars when only 52 of them met the threshold. It isn't a fair or accurate lower limit.

Lol. You can spin the numbers however you want to fit your narrative that Moncada is a bad baseball player. Clearly providing you stats that illustrate otherwise doesn't work. We're all disappointed with his season. We all think he should be better. We all hope he will improve. But he hasn't been totally awful or a trainwreck. But continue on.

There are a lot of rebuilding teams in the AL so rebuild filler is supposed to be bad. Next. Go look at players on the teams that won 81+ games last year and tell me how many of their main position players were worth less than 2 WAR. Then go look at the 5 playoff teams. He's not been good enough. Listen, I've been defending Moncada for the majority of the season but there comes a point where his performance(or lack thereof) cannot be defended anymore. By almost every metric he's been bad. The I have no idea why WAR grades him there.

When you put it into context, it is. Especially since Moncada was the #1 prospect on a lot of lists, and top 10 all except Keith Law's. All of his positive value comes defensively. he's been below replacement level as a hitter.

Right, I agree with you, but the quote I was discussing was purely about his 2018 season. If this is who he is forever, then I'd be disappointed, but I believe that he will improve.

I think since he was the top prospect and headliner in the Sale trade being below average has a different context. If Engel gets to just below average status we'd be real happy.

But the bold is also just not true. I wouldn't call it good but I wouldn't say he's nowhere near it either. At worst he's a slightly below average player right now.

How so? This is a serious question. It isn't like he's been historically bad like Dunn or Davis, but whatever he's putting up is nowhere near good.

using terms like "trainwreck" and "awful" to describe Moncada's 2018 season show absolutely no understanding of the game of baseball