If I’m being honest, both of these projections feel low to me.
The Sox pitching staff put up 11.5 fWAR last year. You are basically assuming we get like 5 fWAR total from the rotation and like 3 from the bullpen, which seems super pessimistic when Shane Smith should provide 2+ and Taylor 1+ respectively. I just don’t buy the other four SP’s combining for 3 or less wins and I don’t buy the other seven relievers combining for 2 or less wins. The Opening Day rotation is bad on paper, but there are a fuckton of arms coming and I think Burke is going to blow his projections out of the water with his slider fixed. The bullpen on paper is way better than last year’s and that one combined for 4 wins. I get bullpens are volatile, but can’t accept it getting worse than last year with the additions we have made and further usage of Taylor. My median projection for the broader staff would be closer to 12 wins and I think any reasonable floor is certainly above 8.
Your positional projection feels more reasonable to me, but I’m definitely a bit higher than you. Steamer also his this group around 13 wins, but I think they are too low on certain players (Colson, Teel, Baldwin, Sosa, Antonacci) and too high on Chase. I expect the former group to outproduce their projections by 4 or 5 wins in aggregate and Chase to come in a win light. As such, I expect something closer to 17 to 18 wins from this group, which would have been about league average last year.