SoCalChiSox

While we disagree on Cease's fundamental value you make a GREAT point here. If all we are getting is one "meh" Top 100 or equivalent plus a pile of crap there's not that much risk in saying no. I have ZERO appetite for a package headlined by a Joey Ortiz, or Jordan Westburg or Will Warren. Zero.

The offers do not match the value. Cease is worth a minimum of 40m in SV and as @Chicago White Sox has previously noted, it's prolly more like 60m. The Dodgers offering Busch only and none of the Top 100 SPs to supplement it (per Harold) is not a realistic offer that matches value. The Yankees refusing to offer ANY of Dominguez, Jones or Hampton (much less two of them) is not an offer that matches the value. Westburg plus crap also isn't a "value match" either. We are NOT the only ones assuming risk. There's also risk on their end too. These guys could have gotten a pretty good No. 2 pitcher for multiple years on the cheap if they had only come to the table with a reasonable offer. Instead, Elias et al. are risking getting seriously hosed at the deadline or getting killed in the playoffs AGAIN (or in Cashmans case getting fired) merely because they wanted to flex in Getz face. There's risk all around here not just with us.

This is a very good point. Given that the Glasnow trade was very favorable to TB and that any kind of semi-quality FA pitching has been priced fairly high in the FA market, I find it hard to believe that somehow the market price for Cease on two cheap years is only 1 Top 100 plus table scraps. That's bullshit and it flies in the face of everything we have seen to date. If these are in fact the kinds of "offers" we've gotten to date, then it suggests that the fact that Getz being the new guy on the block is actually distorting the market because everyone else is saying "let's test this guy and put his feet to the fire and see if he caves if we wait him out to ST" rather than paying whatever they normally would otherwise based on their projection systems for a normal GM who doesn't need to prove himself. If people are playing games to test him, he needs to hold onto Cease until the gamesmanship ends. I dont care if it's the start of the season itself or the deadline. GMs need to make an offer commensurate with reality or get lost.

If he doesn't get moved by ST, he doesn't get moved by ST, Jimmy. If we get to the deadline and Cease is having a reasonably good season, it doesn't really matter what BAL wants to offer, pitching will be in extreme demand regardless. Actually I think it's in extreme demand now and I'm fine with Getz calling peoples bluffs if they are going to offer one piece plus a couple meh prospects. It's not worth it and I don't care whether they are bluffing or not. I fully support Getz saying no to one piece plus whatever. Harold is correct here. Getz drew a line in the sand at 2 impact prospects. Either meet it or not.

Eh Sherman thinks otherwise. But if they're done they're done. I'd rather take Cease to the deadline and take the risk than accept Westburg, Beavers and like McDermott.

Eh...posturing or they aren't serious. Jones is non negotiable.

Thanks for the info. Insist on Jones and Hampton until the last possible second and if we have to take Warren as the second piece, we should get a pretty good third piece.

Jones is the key to everything, IMO. Steinbrenner would rather move Jones than pay Snell 200+ million, IMO and they can save face by saying there's "no room" for him in the OF with Judge, Dominguez and Soto there (and they can say they "intend" on keeping Soto after the season). BTW, where was Jones and Hampton in the BP newly released Top 100? If one guy is in the 50s and the other guy is towards the backend, this is not an unreasonable ask at all.

I'm not saying negotiate only with them, I'm saying that's the prime target and use the others as stalking horses unless someone out of left field gets desperate (STL, SFG, SD, BOS?)

Good. The Dodgers don't really match up well anymore, so we need to focus on NYY.

At this point, Joey Madrigal would have to be the THIRD piece in a BAL deal...

Yeah I think if NYY puts both Jones and Hampton on the table, it will be difficult for BAL to win the bidding. Cashman right now is apparently saying no to Jones and Dominguez and i assume he is saying Hampton is the headliner. I expect as we get closer to ST, they will say ok you can have Jones but no Hampton (Warren) and then right as we get to the edge of ST, they will put both on the table and it will be up to Getz to determine if he really wants to haggle over the third piece or not.

As between... BAL: Westburg, Beavers, McDermott, lottery ticket in the 20s (4) Or: NYY: Jones, Hampton/Warren, Lalane/Vivas (3) I'm inclined to go with the latter.

Perhaps Jimmy was right. Maybe we should just focus on a quantity package with BAL at this point because of the various issues involved with the top prospects or perhaps just focus on using BAL as a scare tactic for other clubs. IMO Getz top priority should be NYY. Harold suggested LAD are still in it but indicated when they were offering Busch earlier, they refused to add a pitcher. IMO, most of us wanted a 3 headliner package (because all their guys have significant flaws) of like SP, Busch and Pages, but if they were only offering 1, it seems unlikely a deal can be had. Even a compromise at 2 doesn't seem to work. SP plus Pages doesn't address the LHS need. A SP plus Rushing is kind of duplicative with Quero who is closer to MLB than Rushing and I think Getz wants to actually address other spots. Two SPs means 2B and RF are still a black hole. LAD doesn't look like a fit anymore. It's NYY, maybe STL in the background, BOS if they are willing to deal from their top 3 or a quantity package from BAL including Beavers, Bradfield, Horvath, Povich, McDermott and another prospect.

But...but Ortiz has more value than Schultz, or so I was told.

I get the sense you must have heard it's Westburg, Beavers and something else. I sure hope the something else is two other really good pieces.

Why? We value that all the time...why should we ignore it now?

1. Fangraphs has him at 40 hit and 40 glove. 2. He's right handed.

Jimmy I know you mentioned Horvath also recently. I'm warming more and more to a quantity package here. I read Horvath has a good bat and is projected to have a very good glove and has played both 2B and 3B. Instead of getting the IFer as the first or second piece and blowing alot of the value that way, maybe we just get a quantity package, and you get Beavers, Horvath, Povich, Bradfield, McDermott and maybe another piece.

Where's the LHS in the deal then, Jimmy?

Very doubtful they will include both Westburg AND one of Cowser/Kjerstad.

If the headliner is Westburg then no it's not "a good one". LHS is priority one. If he has put Cowser/Kjerstad and Ortiz/Norby on the table that is a good offer and perhaps the reports earlier are true that we are just haggling over the third piece. If BAL really does have a "good" offer on the table, this will pressure NYY to really make a "very good" offer....Cashman is on the hot seat.

If it's either or, you don't do a deal with NYY, or if you do, you take Jones, have Warren as the second piece and insist on quality third AND fourth pieces. These are mid to back end Top 100 guys they both should be in the package. I want Lalane (high upside LHP) as the third piece and Vivas as the fourth piece (strongside platoon 2B). If that means Warren instead of Hampton as the 2nd piece ok, but I want 4 quality pieces from NY and chief among them must be the left handed savage OF.

This dude is a fucking moron. Does he understand what OR means? Dude is adding names on top of each other like OR means AND. And BTW it will take closer to 60m in SV from that site rather than 40m due to the premium for pitching. So yeah if it were Jones by himself for Cease I'd say no. You gotta throw in Hampton or Warren as the second piece and if Warren is the second piece then you need a quality third piece like Lalane or Vivas. As far as BAL goes, that site values Cowser alot more than Kjerstad (prolly cause of D, OBP, superior hit tool, speed etc). If Chicago accepts Kjerstad instead of Cowser, the rest of the package will be quite significant.

That article about the Tampa meeting made it seem like eventually when push comes to shove he will be on the table "they won't give up Dominguez and they don't want to give up Jones"