I think Detroit is overperforming a bit but still comfortably the top of the division. I'd say we could battle the Royals for second though. If Cleveland doesn't get Clase back and the Twins sell Lopez and/or Ryan, they are both leapfroggable.
Sox, Twins, and Guards have the exact same expected wins of 63 right now, we're just weighed down by a ton of brutal 1 run losses. Some modest improvement and starting the season with more guys whose best days are ahead of them rather than behind should get you closer.
How many first half close losses would have been more winnable with Colson at the plate in place of Rojas/Capra/Amaya/etc.?