iamshack Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (daggins @ Jun 17, 2017 -> 09:14 PM) I already did this in another thread, but there isn't a massive shift in any area of Avi's numbers except two places - Pull % and BABIP. The pull % might lead me to believe he's picking his spots better, but instead he's swinging more, both in and out of the zone. So its hard to tell if he's for real or not. I don't think the Cards (or any other team) will give us much for him now, so it benefits Hahn to wait until the end of the season to see. If he finishes with a SLG over 500 and WAR north of 4, hell yeah, trade his ass ASAP. Teams will buy that, and it's not like he'll give us a discount to play here after 2019. Ok, so you framed this very well! Today, we can not get much for him (I don't disagree), but if we wait 3.5 months, and even with a bit of a regression, he will be worth a very solid return, why would you not take that gamble, particularly given our current situation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 17, 2017 -> 09:12 PM) He's 26 years old. This might be the real Avi. Wow. I'm assuming you are high on all the minor leaguers that are projected to be good someday. You like anybody on the big league roster not named Anderson? Exactly. Tough tough crowd. It's mid June and he's got a ton of RBI and hitting .325. Congrats, Avi. Keep it up, sir. .337 now and recently was .343 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harkness99 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Wouldn't really make sense to trade him when he is as young as he is and finding himself... What we could get in return for him is doubtful to be worth letting it ride on him for now. He could end up being a wash.. but even so it makes more sense to keep him for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwill Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 I guess my thought is why would I trade him for just a top 60 prospect? He is only 26 years old and just starting to develop his power. Everyone thinks that his average will likely go down due high BIBIP( which is true) but what if his power still has room to grow. He has 16 double on the season what if those start turning into homers. His ISO Power has already gone up considerably. His bat to ball skills have improved as well with his K% dropping by four points. He may never be a guy who walks a ton but to assume that their is no more room for growth at 26 years old is foolish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 I believe in Avisail Antonio García Yaguarin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Two-Gun Pete Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Yeah, there's no way Avi is THIS good: Here's where he is now: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF As others have said, his Babip is artificially high. To put this into context, I found another FG reference that showed the Top 10 Babips from 1945 to 2013: http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-ten...ips-since-1945/ Of the Top 10 Babips, all of them were either from players with excellent contact skills, or had top footspeed, or had their "career year" in terms of luck. To my view, Avi fits BEST into the "luck" category, moreso than being a HOF contact type, or top footspeed type. To those who are believing in his start to 2017, I advise against irrational exhuberance. Avi's simply not THIS good, and if he can be moved for anything of value, he should be moved, IMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (Two-Gun Pete @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 02:15 AM) Yeah, there's no way Avi is THIS good: Here's where he is now: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF As others have said, his Babip is artificially high. To put this into context, I found another FG reference that showed the Top 10 Babips from 1945 to 2013: http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-ten...ips-since-1945/ Of the Top 10 Babips, all of them were either from players with excellent contact skills, or had top footspeed, or had their "career year" in terms of luck. To my view, Avi fits BEST into the "luck" category, moreso than being a HOF contact type, or top footspeed type. To those who are believing in his start to 2017, I advise against irrational exhuberance. Avi's simply not THIS good, and if he can be moved for anything of value, he should be moved, IMHO. How many infield/hustle hits does he have this year? Surely a lot more than any other season due to being in much better shape... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bighurt574 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 I'm not really buying that Avi is this good either, but at this point, he's a safer bet and more likely to pan out than a lot of prospects out there. I'd hold him unless we get a pretty strong offer. If it's all a mirage, so be it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 If he had more of a track record and more than 2 years of control, I'd say keep him. But if a team offers you the value of his current level of production, trade in a heartbeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 07:27 AM) If he had more of a track record and more than 2 years of control, I'd say keep him. But if a team offers you the value of his current level of production, trade in a heartbeat. Yeah, 100% this. I don't see anyone paying an All-Star price for Avi, but if they do you take it and run. But honestly, every day he keeps this up until the deadline, the more likely a team will come calling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 08:08 AM) Yeah, 100% this. I don't see anyone paying an All-Star price for Avi, but if they do you take it and run. But honestly, every day he keeps this up until the deadline, the more likely a team will come calling. Exactly. And we didn't want George Springer last year because he had like 4+ years control remaining. Why should we keep Avi with only 2? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harkness99 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 No one is going to give us anything good enough to make it worthwhile for a guy with that track record. That is why you likely keep him for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 (edited) QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 05:27 AM) If he had more of a track record and more than 2 years of control, I'd say keep him. But if a team offers you the value of his current level of production, trade in a heartbeat. I don't think a whole lot of people would be disappointed with that. The problem is the odds of it happening are virtually non-existent. Edited June 18, 2017 by iamshack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 09:09 AM) I don't think a whole lot of people who be disappointed with that. The problem is the odds of it happening are virtually non-existent. Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 (edited) QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 08:41 AM) Exactly. And we didn't want George Springer last year because he had like 4+ years control remaining. Why should we keep Avi with only 2? One reason is that this looked like a real start from scratch operation last fall. Now, all of a sudden, the Sox have a young 2B, a young 3B, a young CF (staying power, TBD), a young 8th/9th inning reliever. As for Avi, no reason to keep him to keep him. Not sure what the "sweet spot" is in terms of balancing his value based on his current play v. the likelihood of it continuing. If no offers with at least 1 legitimately good prospect offered, they could revisit this next year, with still 1.5 years remaining and a full year and a half of quality play under his belt. Or they could extend him. And if he falls off the cliff, not much would be lost anyway. Edited June 18, 2017 by GreenSox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 07:27 AM) One reason is that this looked like a real start from scratch operation last fall. Now, all of a sudden, the Sox have a young 2B, a young 3B, a young CF (staying power, TBD), a young 8th/9th inning reliever. As for Avi, no reason to keep him to keep him. Not sure what the "sweet spot" is in terms of balancing his value based on his current play v. the likelihood of it continuing. If no offers with at least 1 legitimately good prospect offered, they could revisit this next year, with still 1.5 years remaining and a full year and a half of quality play under his belt. Or they could extend him. And if he falls off the cliff, not much would be lost anyway. Well there are plenty of reasons to keep him. Just because we are rebuilding doesn't mean you need to jettison every asset you have for some unknown quantity. I agree with others that if for whatever reason, some team believes the guy is going to be a consistent all-star, and as a result, thinks they may be able to capitalize on his quick rise to success and get him a bit on the cheap, then you think long and hard about that. An offer that represents the value of a young, middle of the order bat that maybe has some questions around it should still be quite lucrative. However, absent that offer, and I think this is the most likely scenario, we have two years to see if the guy is going to continue to perform in a similar fashion to how he is hitting this season, and determine whether to re-sign him or not. We do have money, folks. There is nothing wrong with having a few guys we actually have to pay, as long as they are the type of assets that are worth paying for. A young, middle order bat is exactly that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Who is the more valuable asset right now, Eric Thames or Avi Garcia? fWAR gives Avi a slight advantage. Five year age advantage to Avi. Both under control through 2019. Thames arguably gets penalized even more for rough defense. Thames for being LH (see Lillian)? Do you go with the 20 homers over 10? It's as interestingbacdebatecas it was last month, albeit Thames has fallen off the early pace he set by quite a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Now that the Sox have corrected his mechanics, let's trade him to Detroit for Iglesias. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 09:52 AM) Now that the Sox have corrected his mechanics, let's trade him to Detroit for Iglesias. Yikes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 08:52 AM) Now that the Sox have corrected his mechanics, let's trade him to Detroit for Iglesias. Despite his horrible offense, still headed to 2+ war and basically almost an "average" MLB SS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 You absolutely have to be willing to deal Avi. He only has two more years of control left, and is about to get really expensive. If this season even close to keeps up, he should be jumping into the $10 million club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beautox Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 He fits age wise with the future window but unless they lock him up he will likely be gone when the Sox start taking over the central. I think at this point we're playing with house money if you can get Carson Kelly + Weaver/Perez/Flaherty, You move him. Pair him up with Swarzak to get some additional value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 08:07 AM) You absolutely have to be willing to deal Avi. He only has two more years of control left, and is about to get really expensive. If this season even close to keeps up, he should be jumping into the $10 million club. I don't think anyone is unwilling. But would you move him, for, say, one top 75 prospect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 10:11 AM) I don't think anyone is unwilling. But would you move him, for, say, one top 75 prospect? Not really, but I also don't think the offers will be nearly that low unless he absolutely collapses in the next five weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 08:12 AM) Not really, but I also don't think the offers will be nearly that low unless he absolutely collapses in the next five weeks. I don't know...I think these GMs are looking at the same stuff we are and wondering what the hell is going on here. What do you think a suitable offer would be for you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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