Cafardo: Cardinals interested in Avi

[southsider2k5]

I don't know...I think these GMs are looking at the same stuff we are and wondering what the hell is going on here.

 

What do you think a suitable offer would be for you?

 

The potential has always been there. 30/30 was talked about from day one. Some guys realize their potential later than others. It is an interesting connection that the other guy being talked about by the Cardinals is JD Martinez, who followed that exact path.

 

If I am Hahn, I am looking for at least a top 50 player to start the deal, but I am looking for 2-3 top 100 players, and/or some raw potential that isn't quite there yet. You don't get a Top 10-20 guy for him, but someone in that next tier is a reasonable start.

[iamshack]

The potential has always been there. 30/30 was talked about from day one. Some guys realize their potential later than others. It is an interesting connection that the other guy being talked about by the Cardinals is JD Martinez, who followed that exact path.

 

If I am Hahn, I am looking for at least a top 50 player to start the deal, but I am looking for 2-3 top 100 players, and/or some raw potential that isn't quite there yet. You don't get a Top 10-20 guy for him, but someone in that next tier is a reasonable start.

Yeah, I am certainly open to that discussion.

 

Just don't expect it to happen, irregardless of what he does over the next 6 weeks.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah, I am certainly open to that discussion.

 

Just don't expect it to happen, irregardless of what he does over the next 6 weeks.

 

Realistically, the expectations I have are that the free agent crowd gets dealt, as well as Q and Robertson. After that, who knows.

[Two-Gun Pete]

A young, middle order bat is exactly that.

See, Avi's Rod Carew-esque Babip has lead to irrational exhuberance, such as calling him a "middle order bat." Or recalling KW's unadulterated BS of calling Avi's potential as "30-30."

 

Now, drop his Babip to a league average Babip, or even slightly above average, and Avi's a below average player, at best. Re-signing him would be insanity, IMO.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

See, Avi's Rod Carew-esque Babip has lead to irrational exhuberance, such as calling him a "middle order bat." Or recalling KW's unadulterated BS of calling Avi's potential as "30-30."

 

Now, drop his Babip to a league average Babip, or even slightly above average, and Avi's a below average player, at best. Re-signing him would be insanity, IMO.

I still find it funny when people talk about BABIP. Growing up with just batting average I ask myself why not just say Rod Carew-esque batting average ? Anyone hitting .337 is going to have a high BABIP.

[OmarComing25]

See, Avi's Rod Carew-esque Babip has lead to irrational exhuberance, such as calling him a "middle order bat." Or recalling KW's unadulterated BS of calling Avi's potential as "30-30."

 

Now, drop his Babip to a league average Babip, or even slightly above average, and Avi's a below average player, at best. Re-signing him would be insanity, IMO.

His BABIP will almost certainly fall but Avi's career BABIP is .333 so regressing it to the league average doesn't make sense. He can be a .340 BABIP guy, so going forward I think his numbers will still look decent if he can keep hitting for power.

[caulfield12]

Gosh danged Sabes makes it nearly impossible to talk about baseball anymore, lol.

 

If Avi is hitting more fastballs, more contact/foul balls, pulling more balls for power...why would that be unsustainable in the sense that he couldn't be at least a .270-.280 hitter with 20-30 homers per year?

 

Not a 5-6 war player, but 2-3, certainly with X amount of value to any MLB team.

 

For example, he hit a rocket Friday that was caught...yet his average is still in the 330's. Everything normalizes over the course of 162 games, whether you believe in such a thing as good and bad luck. If he's hitting more line drives, and line drives lead to hits 60% of the time, what's the problem?

 

If he has faster hands, less bulk, more fast twitch muscles and can get an additional 2-3 infield singles per month, that compensates for some of the BABIP discrepancy.

[Jose Abreu]

See, Avi's Rod Carew-esque Babip has lead to irrational exhuberance, such as calling him a "middle order bat." Or recalling KW's unadulterated BS of calling Avi's potential as "30-30."

 

Now, drop his Babip to a league average Babip, or even slightly above average, and Avi's a below average player, at best. Re-signing him would be insanity, IMO.

His batted ball statistics suggest that he is making less weak contact than he ever has, which obviously adds for more medium and hard contact. Things like this need to be factored into your BABIP regression argument.

[Dick Allen]

See, Avi's Rod Carew-esque Babip has lead to irrational exhuberance, such as calling him a "middle order bat." Or recalling KW's unadulterated BS of calling Avi's potential as "30-30."

 

Now, drop his Babip to a league average Babip, or even slightly above average, and Avi's a below average player, at best. Re-signing him would be insanity, IMO.

It's a Curse most White Sox fans have. A guy like Avi has a great year, and it comes back to he isn't this, he is what he was. A guy like Q has struggles, and it's the new him. He will never be what he was.

 

The longer Avi keeps hitting, the closer we come to the end of it's just a mirage talk. He won't hit .340. But I think he can maintain a much better than average BABIP. His last 450 PA, he is hitting over .300 with an OPS over .850.

[Chicago White Sox]

His BABIP will almost certainly fall but Avi's career BABIP is .333 so regressing it to the league average doesn't make sense. He can be a .340 BABIP guy, so going forward I think his numbers will still look decent if he can keep hitting for power.

Exactly. His ISO is like .210 this year. If he keeps that up, he's still valuable even with a 50 point drop in BABIP. And that's not even including some positive regression with his BB rate which is abnormally low.

[oldsox]

See, Avi's Rod Carew-esque Babip has lead to irrational exhuberance, such as calling him a "middle order bat." Or recalling KW's unadulterated BS of calling Avi's potential as "30-30."

 

Now, drop his Babip to a league average Babip, or even slightly above average, and Avi's a below average player, at best. Re-signing him would be insanity, IMO.

I think you just redefined the word "insanity". .330ish is still .330ish. He has been nothing short of "great" this year.

 

I know insanity in a Sox uniform when I see it, and this isn't it. Signing Dunn, Rios, Manny, Griffey -- that is insanity. The Swisher trades -- that is insanity.

[GreenSox]

Realistically, the expectations I have are that the free agent crowd gets dealt, as well as Q and Robertson. After that, who knows.

Mine are the same, although I would think Q is doubtful at this point. Robertson is essential.

[username]

Mine are the same, although I would think Q is doubtful at this point. Robertson is essential.

 

Yeah I would've thought the same, the Heyman report saying Sox officials are assuming he's dealt is interesting though.

[DirtySox]

Was the article ever linked? Blurb near the bottom.

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2...KP8N/story.html

 

7. J.D. Martinez, OF, Tigers; Avisail Garcia, OF, White Sox — These are the two names linked most often to the Cardinals, who need a righthanded-hitting outfielder. Kendrick also could be in the mix. The Giants have been looking for a righthanded-hitting outfielder all season.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It's a Curse most White Sox fans have. A guy like Avi has a great year, and it comes back to he isn't this, he is what he was. A guy like Q has struggles, and it's the new him. He will never be what he was.

 

The longer Avi keeps hitting, the closer we come to the end of it's just a mirage talk. He won't hit .340. But I think he can maintain a much better than average BABIP. His last 450 PA, he is hitting over .300 with an OPS over .850.

Yep. There were a lot of non believers in Q when he first started doing good. It's come full circle now.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Cards look like they could use a 3rd baseman and some bullpen help as well.

 

Does Avi and Frazier or one of the bullpen arms get you Kelly?

 

I know Collins has gotten solid reviews about his catching, but I'm still not so sure he ends up there so grabbing Kelly would be huge.

[greg775]

I think you just redefined the word "insanity". .330ish is still .330ish. He has been nothing short of "great" this year.

 

I know insanity in a Sox uniform when I see it, and this isn't it. Signing Dunn, Rios, Manny, Griffey -- that is insanity. The Swisher trades -- that is insanity.

Now that's a great post. All the ridiculously bad things our front office has done and people give the front office the benefit of the doubt all the time. Avi is despised by many and they'll never get over it til he does this for 3 seasons and by then they'll say he's old and to dump him.

[sin city sox fan]

It may be too late as his value has gone through the roof, but I'd offer him an 8 year $120 million extension. If he takes it, he's the centerpiece of our rebuild. If he doesn't, trade him if you can get a package as good (or better) as we got for Sale.

[BlackSox13]

Yep. There were a lot of non believers in Q when he first started doing good. It's come full circle now.

Yep. I remember how folks were eager to trade Q for Castro and the following year it was Q for Puig.

[Boopa1219]

Avi for Reyes could make sense. Don't know if the Cardinals would offer much more.

[Chicago White Sox]

It may be too late as his value has gone through the roof, but I'd offer him an 8 year $120 million extension. If he takes it, he's the centerpiece of our rebuild. If he doesn't, trade him if you can get a package as good (or better) as we got for Sale.

You literally have nothing better to do than troll on Father's Day? Good god dude...

[Chicago White Sox]

Avi for Reyes could make sense. Don't know if the Cardinals would offer much more.

I would do trade in a heartbeat, but unfortunately the Cardinals probably wouldn't.

[Jose Abreu]

It may be too late as his value has gone through the roof, but I'd offer him an 8 year $120 million extension. If he takes it, he's the centerpiece of our rebuild. If he doesn't, trade him if you can get a package as good (or better) as we got for Sale.

8/120?! No way he accepts anything below 12/360.

[Quin]

8/120?! No way he accepts anything below 12/360.

 

15/500 and the rights to Moncada as a forever teammate

[sin city sox fan]

8/120?! No way he accepts anything below 12/360.

 

Let's be serious. The market will not give him Bryce Harper type dollars yet (this may change in a year or two if he's not locked up long term)

 

I really think an offer of 8/120 is about FMV at this point and I think he may take it for long term stability.

 

Avi is a future HOFer and I'd hate to see him enter Cooperstown representing another team besides the White Sox.