Cafardo: Cardinals interested in Avi

[southsider2k5]

Jake Peavy was pretty much on the decline by this time, and at the time they traded him, they were coming off the second straight month in which they had the worst record in baseball.

 

Why the hell wouldn't they hand him right field?

 

That still doesn't support any notion that he should have been offered an extension.

 

The history you are referring to does not at all support the assertion you are trying to make.

 

The White Sox have a history of offering extensions to players as early as possible. They have done it over and over and over again. Anderson, Sale, Jones, Santos, Quintana and so on. That history absolutely supports it. The White Sox value cost certainty for guys they see as cornerstones, and all you had to do was to listen to five seconds of a broadcast after they brought Garcia here to know what they thought of his potential. The rest is just revisionist history.

[iamshack]

The White Sox have a history of offering extensions to players as early as possible. They have done it over and over and over again. Anderson, Sale, Jones, Santos, Quintana and so on. That history absolutely supports it. The White Sox value cost certainty for guys they see as cornerstones, and all you had to do was to listen to five seconds of a broadcast after they brought Garcia here to know what they thought of his potential. The rest is just revisionist history.

Ok, so you have Anderson, and then you have like 5 pitchers, who had a fairly lengthy history of success with the Club, certainly longer than that of Avi.

 

I don't doubt that they liked what they had in Avi...but there is just nothing to suggest that this was ever even a thought in anyone's mind.

 

It isn't worth arguing about anymore to me I guess...but the point stands...I really think Avi could be extended for 5-6 years at closer to 60% of the nine figure estimate you made earlier. To me, that makes it a much more interesting equation than one wherein you just trade the guy immediately for anything you can get simply because you only have two years of control left after this season.

[Wanne]

Garcia will be a $10 million in arbitration this year if he anywhere close to keeps up this season. The arb system isn't as much about raises as it is comps. RF's who hit .340 and put up .900+ OPSs get paid big time, and this is year #2 of arb when those numbers start to explode. Next year the same sort of numbers will get him in the range of $15 million, maybe more, if he goes through the arb system.

 

If Garcia has held out this long to be extended, it tells me that he thinks he can get paid in free agency. For what it would take to get his attention and give up free agency, I am not willing to go there.

 

Offer him 5/$50...seems fairly safe for both sides IMO. I know he's having an ungodly year...but he really does look like a different player. I would probably go 5/$60M if it got right down to it. I really don't want to trade him for some sketchy unknowns you HOPE turn out worth a crap.

[caulfield12]

The White Sox extended Mark Teahen, lol.

He did have one FOUR month extended stretch of really good play his entire career. Of course, that was with another team.

 

Avi never put up even 3 consecutive solid months of play. And he wasn't hitting any power at all in 2012 with the Tigers, just had a relatively high batting average for a rookie who basically came out of AA that year and had the "young Miggy" comps already.

 

And did we ever talk about extending Beckham and Viciedo? If we followed the Anderson plan, that would have left the Sox eating two contracts. My personal preference is a 2 or at least 1 1/2 year track record of proven results.

[iamshack]

The White Sox extended Mark Teahen, lol.

He did have one FOUR month extended stretch of really good play his entire career. Of course, that was with another team.

 

Avi never put up even 3 consecutive solid months of play. And he wasn't hitting any power at all in 2012 with the Tigers, just had a relatively high batting average for a rookie who basically came out of AA that year and had the "young Miggy" comps already.

 

And did we ever talk about extending Beckham and Viciedo? If we followed the Anderson plan, that would have left the Sox eating two contracts. My personal preference is a 2 or at least 1 1/2 year track record of proven results.

I was going to mention Beckham, but I am unaware if we actually did make those overtures and he resisted, or what.

 

I am assuming it would have come out by now if he did.

[turnin' two]

The fact is, it doesn't matter if they even discussed an extension in 2013. Maybe they did. Maybe Avi turned it down. Maybe he (or his agents) thought he would make a ton of money through arbitration and get to FA and break the bank. It doesn't matter.

 

So much has happened since then. Avi has experienced failure, he has experienced a major injury and took a lot of time to fully recover. Those experiences, along with the fading of his prospect star, make it a completely different situation, one that may lead him to see the security of an extension as a major positive.

[Lemon_44]

PS-- I know 5/ (60-70) is still a big financial risk for the Sox, but if they feel he is even close to this player, well, they just spent 50 million on a 19 year old they had really never seen. Avi sure seems to be a safer bet than that...

Agreed and people were very excited about that signing. Garcia was already playing in the big leagues at 21. That should tell us about how highly regarded he was/is. He just had his "growing pains" for all of us to see and has seemingly started to realize his potential. With the inflated contracts in baseball these days, I think an extension of 5-6 years with yearly escalating salaries for a total value of 85-90 mill is not unreasonable.

[Chicago White Sox]

This extension talk is crazy. There is no point even considering it until the offseason. As promising as these first three months have been, I need to see more before I commit to him long-term. If he can maintain a similar level of production over the 2nd half of 2018, then extension talks make sense. Until then, we simply wait and evaluate.

[sin city sox fan]

Offer him 5/$50...seems fairly safe for both sides IMO. I know he's having an ungodly year...but he really does look like a different player. I would probably go 5/$60M if it got right down to it. I really don't want to trade him for some sketchy unknowns you HOPE turn out worth a crap.

 

Theres no way 5/50 or 5/60 gets it done now. It may have 2 months ago, but now you are likely looking at 8/140 to get it done. Wait til the end of the year and its lkely 8/200. The front office has foolishly continued to ignore the rapid growth in Avi's value.

[iamshack]

This extension talk is crazy. There is no point even considering it until the offseason. As promising as these first three months have been, I need to see more before I commit to him long-term. If he can maintain a similar level of production over the 2nd half of 2018, then extension talks make sense. Until then, we simply wait and evaluate.

Yeah, I don't disagree. The discussion wasn't meant to insinuate there was a desire by some to extend him now. The discussion is really more what are the implications of him having 2.5 years of control left? Does that force us to consider a trade now? The extension talk was a look ahead at a possible path if you do not trade him prior to the deadline.

[Eminor3rd]

Even if you think he's turned a corner, he's going to see some major BABIP regression. The current .417 BABIP version of Garcia has been good for a 147 wRC+, which is comfortably star level, if a tick or two short of superstar level. If you think he might match his career BABIP going forward (which is somewhat generous but certainly possible) of .335, and he maintains his drastically increased 22% HR/FB rate, you're probably looking at a ~125 wRC+ -- which, as a corner outfielder, is nothing to shake a stick at, but it's not a star unless it's attached to a good defender.

 

If the BABIP comes down to career AND the HR rate comes back to Earth, however, you're probably looking at more of a league average player. And while that's a splendid outcome for Avi's career at this point, I don't know that it's something you take for 2.5 years if you have the chance to sell much higher now.

 

I think that, even if you accept that he's become a legitimate big leaguer, all signs still point to a ton of regression. If we were close to contention, I think you stockpile that type of guy, but if we'd have to extend him and hope he staves off decline in order to see his contribution on our next winner, I think it makes sense to sell high if you can.

 

That doesn't mean any team is going to want to BUY high, but I think if the opportunity arises, it's the right move for the Sox.

[Soha]

Theres no way 5/50 or 5/60 gets it done now. It may have 2 months ago, but now you are likely looking at 8/140 to get it done. Wait til the end of the year and its lkely 8/200. The front office has foolishly continued to ignore the rapid growth in Avi's value.

 

Come on. You think he goes from the brink of being out of MLB to a 140-200 mil deal this fast? That's crazy talk if you ask me.

 

I would consider an extension for Avi, but it caps around 5 years at 50 mil for me. There's way too much risk that he will regress to his old self, and in that case you'd basically be eating 50 mil. And I think he probably would take a 5yr/50 mil deal. It sets him for life. That comes a long way from where he was 3-4 months ago...when some were wondering if he would be playing in Japan soon.

[Bob Sacamano]

Come on. You think he goes from the brink of being out of MLB to a 140-200 mil deal this fast? That's crazy talk if you ask me.

 

I would consider an extension for Avi, but it caps around 5 years at 50 mil for me. There's way too much risk that he will regress to his old self, and in that case you'd basically be eating 50 mil. And I think he probably would take a 5yr/50 mil deal. It sets him for life. That comes a long way from where he was 3-4 months ago...when some were wondering if he would be playing in Japan soon.

 

I don't see any way he signs for 5/$50 mill. He's close enough to free agency where he would be better off gambling on sustaining this success and becoming a free agent.

[steveno89]

I don't see any way he signs for 5/$50 mill. He's close enough to free agency where he would be better off gambling on sustaining this success and becoming a free agent.

 

A half season of good production does not make him worth a massive extension. I'd ride him out of the cheap and see if he can keep this up.

 

What is the rush anyways?

[iamshack]

Even if you think he's turned a corner, he's going to see some major BABIP regression. The current .417 BABIP version of Garcia has been good for a 147 wRC+, which is comfortably star level, if a tick or two short of superstar level. If you think he might match his career BABIP going forward (which is somewhat generous but certainly possible) of .335, and he maintains his drastically increased 22% HR/FB rate, you're probably looking at a ~125 wRC+ -- which, as a corner outfielder, is nothing to shake a stick at, but it's not a star unless it's attached to a good defender.

 

If the BABIP comes down to career AND the HR rate comes back to Earth, however, you're probably looking at more of a league average player. And while that's a splendid outcome for Avi's career at this point, I don't know that it's something you take for 2.5 years if you have the chance to sell much higher now.

 

I think that, even if you accept that he's become a legitimate big leaguer, all signs still point to a ton of regression. If we were close to contention, I think you stockpile that type of guy, but if we'd have to extend him and hope he staves off decline in order to see his contribution on our next winner, I think it makes sense to sell high if you can.

 

That doesn't mean any team is going to want to BUY high, but I think if the opportunity arises, it's the right move for the Sox.

I haven't seen a whole lot of people stating they wouldn't sell high on him now. I think most of us are operating off the assumption that no one will want to buy high on him.

 

The question of whether to sell high on him or whether to sell him for whatever you can get are two very different questions.

 

I feel comfortable with the minor league system we are currently building now to take the risk and let him continue to play this out instead of taking a guy back for him that will become our 19th rated prospect. That adds very little value to the organization compared to what he's currently providing us.

 

And I do understand the regression that is coming, and I do respect some of our more advanced analytical leaning folks here, but what you are basically tell us is that you would expect him to revert entirely back to the player he was prior to about August of last season, simply as a matter of the law of averages.

 

Perhaps you are correct, because believe me, I never saw what has been happening coming either, but my eyes are telling me something has clicked in this guy and he's a different player than he previously was. Is he going to sustain THIS level of performance, I don't think anyone believes that. But is there a real possibility that he will be significantly better than he was heading into August or so of last season? I truly believe there is.

Edited June 23, 2017 by iamshack

[iamshack]

I would not consider extending him for more than the average MLB salary and I would love it if the Sox traded him next month.

Well this is just lazy.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

A half season of good production does not make him worth a massive extension. I'd ride him out of the cheap and see if he can keep this up.

 

What is the rush anyways?

Even as a big Avi supporter this makes the most sense. Avi right now is a comet streaking through the universe but comets can crash , As much as I want to believe he has turned a corner an extension is a whole other animal . Common sense and business sense says wait.

[southsider2k5]

A half season of good production does not make him worth a massive extension. I'd ride him out of the cheap and see if he can keep this up.

 

What is the rush anyways?

 

The "cheap" ends this year. After this year he will be "league average" and then "full price" the year after.

[Bob Sacamano]

I would not consider extending him for more than the average MLB salary and I would love it if the Sox traded him next month.

 

Agreed.

[DirtySox]

I would not consider extending him for more than the average MLB salary and I would love it if the Sox traded him next month.

 

Same. Hearing anything on him being shopped?

[turnin' two]

I would not consider extending him for more than the average MLB salary and I would love it if the Sox traded him next month.

 

It is all about risk management. Avi has shown this season that, at his best, he can be a legit middle of the order bat. The Sox have to judge the risk of him falling back into his old ways against what he could be in the future, and what a return for him in a trade may look like. If the Sox believe that this Avi, or something close to this, is the real Avi, they should have lofty demands for a trade. If they think Avi can continue to be a middle of the order bat, they sure has heck had better get a return that can replace him as a middle of the order bat. If they believe the risk of Avi being a .260 hitter with a dozen HRs is high, well, then, you don't need as much back.

 

He looks like a different hitter to me, better discipline, and punishing pitches in the hitting zone. He is also getting much more lift on the ball. In previous years, he would hit the ball hard, but it would be on the ground or a low line drive. He also seemed too ready to just try to punch the ball through the infield (which is a fine approach, but you better hit far better than .260). So, I guess, I am buying into the changes a bit. Not saying I think he is going to be a .340 hitter for his career (or all season) but he was always a guy that had all the tools. If he has mentally put it together and changed his approach, he could be a valuable guy to have in the middle of the order with Abreu. I would be disappointed if they traded him for less than a great return. Young players go through growing pains. Not everyone is Miguel Cabrera. Heck, there are people here saying Schwarber should be part of a return for Q, Avi has never struggled near as bad as what Schwarber is mired in right now. Yet everyone believes he will still be an impact bat. It seems many Sox fans are willing to believe in any one other than Avi.

[chitownsportsfan]

It is all about risk management. Avi has shown this season that, at his best, he can be a legit middle of the order bat. The Sox have to judge the risk of him falling back into his old ways against what he could be in the future, and what a return for him in a trade may look like. If the Sox believe that this Avi, or something close to this, is the real Avi, they should have lofty demands for a trade. If they think Avi can continue to be a middle of the order bat, they sure has heck had better get a return that can replace him as a middle of the order bat. If they believe the risk of Avi being a .260 hitter with a dozen HRs is high, well, then, you don't need as much back.

 

He looks like a different hitter to me, better discipline, and punishing pitches in the hitting zone. He is also getting much more lift on the ball. In previous years, he would hit the ball hard, but it would be on the ground or a low line drive. He also seemed too ready to just try to punch the ball through the infield (which is a fine approach, but you better hit far better than .260). So, I guess, I am buying into the changes a bit. Not saying I think he is going to be a .340 hitter for his career (or all season) but he was always a guy that had all the tools. If he has mentally put it together and changed his approach, he could be a valuable guy to have in the middle of the order with Abreu. I would be disappointed if they traded him for less than a great return. Young players go through growing pains. Not everyone is Miguel Cabrera. Heck, there are people here saying Schwarber should be part of a return for Q, Avi has never struggled near as bad as what Schwarber is mired in right now. Yet everyone believes he will still be an impact bat. It seems many Sox fans are willing to believe in any one other than Avi.

 

Good post and the bolded is an especially good point. Too often he was going up there like he was Juan Pierre and not a 6-4 230lb guy with great raw power. Or, he was going up there with the mindset of "seeing some pitches" and was letting strikes go by without swinging and falling behind in the count.

 

I read a very interesting piece on the Astros' hitting philosophy which they described as "controlled aggression". The old approach of "waiting for your pitch" they changed to something closer to "look for your pitch and hit it as early in the count as you can". That would certainly describe Avi this year. He's not letting many strikes go by, his inside zone swinging percentage is close to 80%. The article on the 'Stros noted that trying to extend a starters' pitch count is fools gold anyways as these days most teams have guys ready to come in in the 6th and 7th that are throwing 95mph. Getting the starter out of the game early isn't very helpful. It's not swinging at bad pitches as much as not letting good pitches go to waste and falling behind. "Take and Rake" has become "Just Rake".

[ChiSox1917]

Sell Sell Sell!!!

 

Sox would be crazy not to right now

[greg775]

Even as a big Avi supporter this makes the most sense. Avi right now is a comet streaking through the universe but comets can crash , As much as I want to believe he has turned a corner an extension is a whole other animal . Common sense and business sense says wait.

Some people think there are a ton of great players (prospects) who will be cant miss prospects we can get for guys like Avi. Truth is he is producing at a rate (right now) hardly any players can match. I'm glad the so called rebuild has so many fans dreaming about a team full of stars (yeah right).

[oldsox]

If he goes to arbitration next year, what is he likely to get? $6-7 mm?