Abreu trade "unlikely"

[steveno89]

Gonna be honest, I don't see the FA market for 33 year old right handed sluggers being unaffordable in two years especially with where the sox will likely be at payroll.

 

Exactly^

 

Why not evaluate then if we need to resign Abreu? It's not like we wouldn't be able to afford him at age 33. I just don't think we need to extend him now.

[steveno89]

We should be able to afford it but is that a game you really want to play? If we don't have an experienced backup and we make a strong bid for Abreu and someone outbids us...suddenly we are trying to win the world series with a scrap heap 1b.

 

Saying "Oh we can extend this guy in 2 years" is, especially for Abreu, a low reward, high risk move. If we wait, are we going to either save money or somehow find better production? There's a good chance we can keep him and keep his production, but if he walks, it would dramatically damage what should be the top team in the league for 2020.

 

If he won't extend now, then he's telling you he wants to play the FA market and him walking is a real risk. Give him a fair offer and find out. If he's insistent that he's going to play the FA market, that's his right, but we should assume there's a real chance of us trying to replace our cleanup hitter rather than trying to build a title contender.

 

You are assuming that there will not be other options on the market though or via trade. I respect Abreu, but first base is not the toughest position to fill. By that point Abreu might be transitioning to DH mainly too.

 

Him becoming a free agent essentially would free $20 million from our books, giving us flexibility. Hypothetically if Abreu starts to decline we would be happy we did not extend him into our competitive window and could use his salary for other things.

[bmags]

We should be able to afford it but is that a game you really want to play? If we don't have an experienced backup and we make a strong bid for Abreu and someone outbids us...suddenly we are trying to win the world series with a scrap heap 1b.

 

Saying "Oh we can extend this guy in 2 years" is, especially for Abreu, a low reward, high risk move. If we wait, are we going to either save money or somehow find better production? There's a good chance we can keep him and keep his production, but if he walks, it would dramatically damage what should be the top team in the league for 2020.

 

If he won't extend now, then he's telling you he wants to play the FA market and him walking is a real risk. Give him a fair offer and find out. If he's insistent that he's going to play the FA market, that's his right, but we should assume there's a real chance of us trying to replace our cleanup hitter rather than trying to build a title contender.

 

I will be shocked if there is not an available 30+ year old slugging player that can only play 1b in 2020.

 

This, to me, is really not that risky.

[Balta1701]

I will be shocked if there is not an available 30+ year old slugging player that can only play 1b in 2020.

 

This, to me, is really not that risky.

The 2 other worthy names on the market after 2019 are Justin Smoak and Paul Goldschmidt. You'll be talking about the age 32-33 seasons for either of them. Nonzero chance both could be extended before FA, and if that happens, Abreu is the only quality 1b available on the market.

[southsider2k5]

The 2 other worthy names on the market after 2019 are Justin Smoak and Paul Goldschmidt. You'll be talking about the age 32-33 seasons for either of them. Nonzero chance both could be extended before FA, and if that happens, Abreu is the only quality 1b available on the market.

 

As free agents. That doesn't cover the trade market at all.

[Chicago White Sox]

Exactly^

 

Why not evaluate then if we need to resign Abreu? It's not like we wouldn't be able to afford him at age 33. I just don't think we need to extend him now.

I'll keep saying this, but it has nothing to do with affording him and everything to do with not wanting to lock him up into his late 30s. If I can lock Jose up right now to a 4/$80M deal for his age 31 to 34 seasons I think that's makes a ton of sense for us for a variety of reasons that have been well documented. And even if a Burger or a Sheets is pushing for a spot by 2020 or 2021, Jose's contract should be perfectly moveable and might even have some surplus value left.

 

On the flip side, if he reaches free agency at age 33 and is still productive, I have no doubt he'll get at least a four year deal. Now you're either committing big dollars to his age 33 to 36 seasons (and maybe more), relying on a young player that may or may not be ready, or be forced to to sign or trade for what is likely to be a lessor player. And this is happening right when you want to be ready to compete.

 

I'd much rather have Abreu under control (without a crazy long term deal) and worry about having too many good players when that actually becomes an issue.

[southsider2k5]

Rob Hart‏ @RobHartWBBM 47m47 minutes ago Rob Hart Retweeted Ken Rosenthal

 

Abreu trade unlikely. Which is fine by me.

 

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/12/07/whi...breu-offseason/

[Soha]

I will be shocked if there is not an available 30+ year old slugging player that can only play 1b in 2020.

 

This, to me, is really not that risky.

 

I agree with this.

 

I think Avi is the guy that you either trade or extend.

[bmags]

I'll keep saying this, but it has nothing to do with affording him and everything to do with not wanting to lock him up into his late 30s. If I can lock Jose up right now to a 4/$80M deal for his age 31 to 34 seasons I think that's makes a ton of sense for us for a variety of reasons that have been well documented. And even if a Burger or a Sheets is pushing for a spot by 2020 or 2021, Jose's contract should be perfectly moveable and might even have some surplus value left.

 

On the flip side, if he reaches free agency at age 33 and is still productive, I have no doubt he'll get at least a four year deal. Now you're either committing big dollars to his age 33 to 36 seasons (and maybe more), relying on a young player that may or may not be ready, or be forced to to sign or trade for what is likely to be a lessor player. And this is happening right when you want to be ready to compete.

 

I'd much rather have Abreu under control (without a crazy long term deal) and worry about having too many good players when that actually becomes an issue.

 

I'm not so sure anymore. Look at Encarnacion. He was a better hitter turning the same age as Abreu would be. 3 for 60, team option for 4th. So we are haggling over the potential of a 5th year worth probably 20 million.

 

So we are either maybe paying abreu 20 million in 2022 or paying some other similar player at that time.

 

The situation really won't be that bad. I'm much more worried about not having a bullpen when we get competitive than not finding a good 1b.

[greg775]

We better be competitive in two years. If we are Jose Abreu is the offensive force to lead the young talent to a championship

Love El Rockin. Best fan ever.

 

I sure can understand where you are coming from, but if we keep trading our best players especially team leaders like Abreu we find ourselves in perpetual rebuilding. I do agree with extending him and Avi Garcia. The concerns about injuries and such are just part of the game

El Rockin baby! Keep posting.

[steveno89]

I'm not so sure anymore. Look at Encarnacion. He was a better hitter turning the same age as Abreu would be. 3 for 60, team option for 4th. So we are haggling over the potential of a 5th year worth probably 20 million.

 

So we are either maybe paying abreu 20 million in 2022 or paying some other similar player at that time.

 

The situation really won't be that bad. I'm much more worried about not having a bullpen when we get competitive than not finding a good 1b.

 

The mlb is full of sluggers in their mid 30's looking for a final payday. I don't expect that to change.

 

If and when the Sox decide to keep Abreu, I'm confident it wouldn't take too long to get a deal done. I just don't know if they think he will be on the roster in 2020.

[chitownsportsfan]

I really don't think the options are "trade him now or sign him now". I think this might be a good time to wait on more data. More data about the 2018 club and more data on how Jose is going to age.

 

Of course, if you get bowled over in an offer do the deal.

 

Steven89 makes a good point: I think Jose wants his next deal to be his last. I don't think he's going to settle for a 5 year extension. I'm thinking he wants at least 6 and probably some vesting and mutual options as well. Maybe even a damn opt out. There's a lot of moving parts here. Hopefully Hahn can figure it out.

[WestSuburbanSox]

I am not sure I trust this front office to sign big name free agents. This rebuild would go a lot better if we get 3 or 4 stars from Jimenez, Moncada, Kopech, Hansen, Giolito, Lopez, Rodon, Cease, Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, etc... and sign more guys like Wellington Castillo who can consistently deliver above replacement value at reasonable risk. We probably need 4 OFs, 5 IFs, 2C, and 5 SPs that are at a minimum worth 1 WAR.

If we find ourselves 3 months out from a solid chance at the WS, great, pull a short term deal if you need to. But first, assemble a very deep team of solid players.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I am not sure I trust this front office to sign big name free agents. This rebuild would go a lot better if we get 3 or 4 stars from Jimenez, Moncada, Kopech, Hansen, Giolito, Lopez, Rodon, Cease, Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, etc... and sign more guys like Wellington Castillo who can consistently deliver above replacement value at reasonable risk. We probably need 4 OFs, 5 IFs, 2C, and 5 SPs that are at a minimum worth 1 WAR.

If we find ourselves 3 months out from a solid chance at the WS, great, pull a short term deal if you need to. But first, assemble a very deep team of solid players.

 

It sounds like you're wanting to do what we had done the past 5 years.. Have 3 or 4 stars (Sale, Abreu, Quintana, Eaton) and then sign patchwork guys.. This doesn't work and we've proved it. I hope we don't fall into the same problems. EEEK

[WestSuburbanSox]

Let me clarify then. A deep team of above average ball players with a handful of stars is not what we have had over the past 7 or 8 years. We have had a handful of stars and a complete lack of a deep team.

[iamshack]

I'll keep saying this, but it has nothing to do with affording him and everything to do with not wanting to lock him up into his late 30s. If I can lock Jose up right now to a 4/$80M deal for his age 31 to 34 seasons I think that's makes a ton of sense for us for a variety of reasons that have been well documented. And even if a Burger or a Sheets is pushing for a spot by 2020 or 2021, Jose's contract should be perfectly moveable and might even have some surplus value left.

 

On the flip side, if he reaches free agency at age 33 and is still productive, I have no doubt he'll get at least a four year deal. Now you're either committing big dollars to his age 33 to 36 seasons (and maybe more), relying on a young player that may or may not be ready, or be forced to to sign or trade for what is likely to be a lessor player. And this is happening right when you want to be ready to compete.

 

I'd much rather have Abreu under control (without a crazy long term deal) and worry about having too many good players when that actually becomes an issue.

Why would he want to sign onto that deal?

 

His advisors would basically say “Jose, the risk you avoid by signing this is absolutely minimal. There is very little upside to you signing a 4 year extension at the juncture.”

 

He’s basically saying he’s concerned he won’t be able to sign a two year deal when his contract with us runs out?

Edited December 7, 2017 by iamshack

[steveno89]

Let me clarify then. A deep team of above average ball players with a handful of stars is not what we have had over the past 7 or 8 years. We have had a handful of stars and a complete lack of a deep team.

 

If we actually want to contend, we need to open up the checkbook and invest in several key free agents eventually. A deep team of average players won't get us through the AL in the playoffs.

 

Look at what any serious contender has done lately, especially the Astros and Cubs in order to win.

[steveno89]

Why would he want to sign onto that deal?

 

His advisors would basically say “Jose, the risk you avoid by signing this is absolutely minimal. There is very little upside to you signing a 4 year extension at the juncture.”

 

He’s basically saying he’s concerned he won’t be able to sign a two year deal when his contract with us runs out?

 

Very true.

 

To all the "extend Abreu" advocates, you are assuming that he will accept what boils down to a two year extension. I have my doubts about that.

 

If Abreu asked for a 5 year extension, would you give it to him? That would give me serious pause.

[OmarComing25]

If we actually want to contend, we need to open up the checkbook and invest in several key free agents eventually. A deep team of average players won't get us through the AL in the playoffs.

 

Look at what any serious contender has done lately, especially the Astros and Cubs in order to win.

A big reason why teams like the Dodgers, Cubs and Astros are so good is because they are deep in average players. Average players are valuable. It's the utter lack of average players that killed us this past decade.

[southsider2k5]

Very true.

 

To all the "extend Abreu" advocates, you are assuming that he will accept what boils down to a two year extension. I have my doubts about that.

 

If Abreu asked for a 5 year extension, would you give it to him? That would give me serious pause.

 

If we are talking something in the 75 to 90 million range, I would.

[chitownsportsfan]

Why would he want to sign onto that deal?

 

His advisors would basically say “Jose, the risk you avoid by signing this is absolutely minimal. There is very little upside to you signing a 4 year extension at the juncture.”

 

He’s basically saying he’s concerned he won’t be able to sign a two year deal when his contract with us runs out?

 

well said unless he just absolutely loves the Sox and ignors his agent's good advice there's no way he's signing a 4 year extension. That would not be in his long term financial interests.

[chitownsportsfan]

If we are talking something in the 75 to 90 million range, I would.

 

I'd think he'd ask for at least 5 years 90 million. At least.

[Balta1701]

I'd think he'd ask for at least 5 years 90 million. At least.

If he wants that 5th year guaranteed I'm pushing him downwards a little bit (5/80?) but yes I'd do it. That's the tradeoff - he can have an extra year guaranteed but we're getting a better rate out of it.

 

If he got Encarnacion's deal of 3/$60, he'd basically get 5/$90 over the next 5 years anyway, so there's no economic reason for me to do that. I get nothing for that extra year while he gets extra security.

[Chicago White Sox]

Why would he want to sign onto that deal?

 

His advisors would basically say “Jose, the risk you avoid by signing this is absolutely minimal. There is very little upside to you signing a 4 year extension at the juncture.”

 

He’s basically saying he’s concerned he won’t be able to sign a two year deal when his contract with us runs out?

If we wants to stay with us, he may have to take a deal like that. That’s kind of the whole point. Sox positon it as sign an extension now or we’ll have no choice but to consider moving him. Abreu then can decide what’s most important to him. And it’s not like a 4/$80M is a slap in the face. He’s better off long-term by waiting if he maintains his production, but if he’s happy here then that’s a pretty decent deal for him.

[bmags]

If he wants that 5th year guaranteed I'm pushing him downwards a little bit (5/80?) but yes I'd do it. That's the tradeoff - he can have an extra year guaranteed but we're getting a better rate out of it.

 

If he got Encarnacion's deal of 3/$60, he'd basically get 5/$90 over the next 5 years anyway, so there's no economic reason for me to do that. I get nothing for that extra year while he gets extra security.

 

That assumes zero growth in contracts from 2016 offseason to 2020 offseason. $20 million then is cheaper than it is now.