Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

True. 

But yeah, Sheets in LF, Leury in CF, and Vaughn in RF. What could go wrong?

My personal pick remains “Lynn and Kopech have muscle soreness and there’s an unexpected IL trip for Gio or Cease” and “no one could possibly have predicted this team would have 3 starting pitchers hurt at once”.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

My personal pick remains “Lynn and Kopech have muscle soreness and there’s an unexpected IL trip for Gio or Cease” and “no one could possibly have predicted this team would have 3 starting pitchers hurt at once”.

Good one!

God forbid, but then, it'll be Gio, Keuchel, Velasquez, Lopez, and Stiever in the rotation?

If that happens, I hope I'll be out of country at that time.

[FoxForce2]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

My personal pick remains “Lynn and Kopech have muscle soreness and there’s an unexpected IL trip for Gio or Cease” and “no one could possibly have predicted this team would have 3 starting pitchers hurt at once”.

Grandal --- don't forget Grandal/Collins/Zavala

[Y2Jimmy0]

6 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

Does were mean they aren't anymore?

I don’t know. 

3 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Sox were willing to give opt outs?

I doubt it. Informed speculation: the Sox were willing to do something in the 4 year $72-$76 million range. I have no idea whether they still would or not. Boras was looking for more than that. Over 5 years and $100 million plus from all indications. I doubt Sox would do a 1-2 year and forfeit the 2nd rounder and pool space to do so. I’m not sure anyone would though. 

[ChiSox59]

42 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

I'm not even worrying about Conforto or any other bat at this point. Package Crochet with Burger or Sheets and go get Manaea, unload Kimbrel paying as little as possible, and address RF and/or 2B at the trade deadline.

Crochet straight up for 1 year of Manaea would be just a brutal move. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

Grandal --- don't forget Grandal/Collins/Zavala

Or 35 year old Josh Harrison either injured or DFA, leading to Mendick at 2B while Leury has to play in the OF.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[maxjusttyped]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

My personal pick remains “Lynn and Kopech have muscle soreness and there’s an unexpected IL trip for Gio or Cease” and “no one could possibly have predicted this team would have 3 starting pitchers hurt at once”.

People always severely underestimate what's normal from an injury perspective during a given season. The average team uses like 10 SP's during a traditional 162 game season for a reason.

For those of you with subscriptions to The Athletic that are interested in a sobering reminder for how high pitcher injury rates are, here you go with projected IL days for most SP's in 2022

"To estimate the projected IL days, we compared starters with similar injury histories. We used slightly different samples for each pitcher, since guys in their mid-20s have more comps than those that are near 40 years old. The No. 1 variable that predicted future injury was days missed on the IL (non-COVID) from the last two seasons. Additionally, age, body size, fastball velocity, and total career arm injuries were incorporated, but to a lesser extent. One known issue with these projections is that they were created when the prior two seasons were a complete 162 games. The 2020 season only had 60 but is assumed to be a full season in the calculations. It’s basically impossible to work around. "

"https://theathletic.com/3136219/2022/03/18/sarris-starting-pitching-ranks-for-the-2022-fantasy-season/

Of course some pitchers will stay healthy for an entire season and make 32 starts, but the most likely outcome for each individual SP is that they'll spend some time on the IL each season. The projected IL days for Gio, Lynn, Cease, Kopech are enough to make your stomach get a bit queasy, but also highlight how essential it is to add 1 more quality SP.

[chw42]

8 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I don’t know. 

I doubt it. Informed speculation: the Sox were willing to do something in the 4 year $72-$76 million range. I have no idea whether they still would or not. Boras was looking for more than that. Over 5 years and $100 million plus from all indications. I doubt Sox would do a 1-2 year and forfeit the 2nd rounder and pool space to do so. I’m not sure anyone would though. 

So it seems like our limit on FA position player contracts is the Grandal contract. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

People always severely underestimate what's normal from an injury perspective during a given season. The average team uses like 10 SP's during a traditional 162 game season for a reason.

For those of you with subscriptions to The Athletic that are interested in a sobering reminder for how high pitcher injury rates are, here you go with projected IL days for most SP's in 2022

"To estimate the projected IL days, we compared starters with similar injury histories. We used slightly different samples for each pitcher, since guys in their mid-20s have more comps than those that are near 40 years old. The No. 1 variable that predicted future injury was days missed on the IL (non-COVID) from the last two seasons. Additionally, age, body size, fastball velocity, and total career arm injuries were incorporated, but to a lesser extent. One known issue with these projections is that they were created when the prior two seasons were a complete 162 games. The 2020 season only had 60 but is assumed to be a full season in the calculations. It’s basically impossible to work around. "

"https://theathletic.com/3136219/2022/03/18/sarris-starting-pitching-ranks-for-the-2022-fantasy-season/

Of course some pitchers will stay healthy for an entire season and make 32 starts, but the most likely outcome for each individual SP is that they'll spend some time on the IL each season. The projected IL days for Gio, Lynn, Cease, Kopech are enough to make your stomach get a bit queasy, but also highlight how essential it is to add 1 more quality SP.

Thanks for this. But, I was told that the super-dooper bullpen would take care of all of this, I'm not worried. 

[Jack Parkman]

11 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I don’t know. 

I doubt it. Informed speculation: the Sox were willing to do something in the 4 year $72-$76 million range. I have no idea whether they still would or not. Boras was looking for more than that. Over 5 years and $100 million plus from all indications. I doubt Sox would do a 1-2 year and forfeit the 2nd rounder and pool space to do so. I’m not sure anyone would though. 

That's probably the best deal he's going to get at this point. Sox should circle back. 

[maxjusttyped]

2 minutes ago, chw42 said:

So it seems like our limit on FA position player contracts is the Grandal contract. 

We all know they're just keep the books clean long-term to offer Gio the 130-200M it'll take to sign him long-term, right? 🙂

Berrios signed for 7/131M and I'm thinking that's the floor for Lucas if he stays healthy.

[SoCalChiSox]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's probably the best deal he's going to get at this point. Sox should circle back. 

Nope...Boras isn't going to do anything unless it's a) 100+m guaranteed or b) contains a very early opt out so Conforto can rebuild his value. 

He was on track to get a 150m deal. They aren't going to accept half that without a mechanism to get the rest of the money if he plays well and we're not going to offer an opt out unless we get one as well and Boras will never go for that.

They will take a 2 year deal for 40m with an opt out after 1 before they accept a 4/73 Grandal deal. 

Edited March 20, 2022 by SoCalChiSox

[DirtySox]

 

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I don’t know. 

I doubt it. Informed speculation: the Sox were willing to do something in the 4 year $72-$76 million range. I have no idea whether they still would or not. Boras was looking for more than that. Over 5 years and $100 million plus from all indications. I doubt Sox would do a 1-2 year and forfeit the 2nd rounder and pool space to do so. I’m not sure anyone would though. 

Why are we seemingly obsessed with not going over the Grandal numbers?

How can we be $20-30 million off the rest of baseball in our valuations?

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

 

At least they're trying.  Pittsburgh and Oakland should be folded.

[fathom]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Why are we seemingly obsessed with not going over the Grandal numbers?

How can we be $20-30 million off the rest of baseball in our valuations?

Because internally they don’t believe big contracts help a team win would be my educated guess 

[maloney.adam]

This board is depressing again today. When is this going to end?!? Lol

Edited March 20, 2022 by maloney.adam

[Jack Parkman]

18 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Nope...Boras isn't going to do anything unless it's a) 100+m guaranteed or b) contains a very early opt out so Conforto can rebuild his value. 

He was on track to get a 150m deal. They aren't going to accept half that without a mechanism to get the rest of the money if he plays well and we're not going to offer an opt out unless we get one as well and Boras will never go for that.

They will take a 2 year deal for 40m with an opt out after 1 before they accept a 4/73 Grandal deal. 

Nobody is going to give up a 2nd round pick for 1 year of Conforto. 

I also don't think the Mets are interested because of the vaccination stuff in NYC. 

If he wants a 1 year deal he's going to have to wait until after the draft. 

Edited March 20, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[smellysox]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

From what Id heard, the Sox were willing to do better than that 

Which sends such a confusing signal to me. So they have or are pursuing him? Yet others are saying we have reached our limit with the payroll? Are we done with right field or not? We all heard what Hahn said at the end of season presser - "More balance to the lineup and improve right field." Except for unloading Kimbrel, it almost feels like they're done.

Hopefully it's Bellinger coming back for Kimbrel.  Wink, wink 😉 

Edited March 20, 2022 by smellysox

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Nobody is going to give up a 2nd round pick for 1 year of Conforto. 

Why not? The Sox gave up a second round pick for one year of Nomar Mazzara.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

Why not? The Sox gave up a second round pick for one year of Nomar Mazzara.

He technically had two years of control and wasn’t scheduled to make ~$20M per year.

[HOFHurt35]

37 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Crochet straight up for 1 year of Manaea would be just a brutal move. 

It would be, however, I'd much rather he be the headline of a package over Vaughn.

 

[wegner]

6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Why not? The Sox gave up a second round pick for one year of Nomar Mazzara.

And some of us hated that move.

[Y2Jimmy0]

30 minutes ago, chw42 said:

So it seems like our limit on FA position player contracts is the Grandal contract. 

Not true. They’ve offered players more money since. I think that’s a very fair first offer for Conforto with a QO, personally. 

28 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's probably the best deal he's going to get at this point. Sox should circle back. 

Agreed. There’s no market for him that’s known anyway. 

24 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Nope...Boras isn't going to do anything unless it's a) 100+m guaranteed or b) contains a very early opt out so Conforto can rebuild his value. 

He was on track to get a 150m deal. They aren't going to accept half that without a mechanism to get the rest of the money if he plays well and we're not going to offer an opt out unless we get one as well and Boras will never go for that.

They will take a 2 year deal for 40m with an opt out after 1 before they accept a 4/73 Grandal deal. 

I’m not sure that deal is out there. Most teams won’t forfeit a 2nd, the pool space and $500K in international funds for 1-2 years of Conforto. He should’ve taken the QO. 

19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Why are we seemingly obsessed with not going over the Grandal numbers?

How can we be $20-30 million off the rest of baseball in our valuations?

They aren’t. The board might be but this doesn’t make any sense. 

5 minutes ago, smellysox said:

Which sends such a confusing signal to me. So they have or are pursuing him? Yet others are saying we have reached our limit with the payroll? Are we done with right field or not? We all heard what Hahn said at the end of season presser - "More balance to the lineup and improve right field." Except for unloading Kimbrel, it almost feels like they're done.

Unless it's Bellinger coming back for Kimbrel.  Wink, wink 😉 

I don’t know what the status is but I now they had interest in the player. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Why not? The Sox gave up a second round pick for one year of Nomar Mazzara.

I mean that’s not the same thing. Come on, man.