77 Hitmen Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: I have said 2030 for a couple of years now, and still feeling pretty good about it. 3 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said: It seems pretty obvious that Jerry has no desire to spend money if he’s a few years away from potentially selling the team to Ishbia. So you are probably dead on. To make the playoffs? 2030 at the earliest even with the expanded wild card format. Ain't gonna happen next year for sure. Getz hasn't proven anything to me that he has what it takes to put together a winning team. Barring any huge scandal or the sudden passing of Jerry Reinsdorf, I figure he has the GM job locked up until at least until 2029. Until 2029, Jerry will be in full control. In the meantime, Ishbia's infusion of cash will be used to pay down the team's debts and shore up operational needs. He's not handing money to JR to land free agents and will not be involved in the day to day operations of this franchise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 We are such a hopeless fanbase that the team only being the second-worst team in the sport has people thinking we’ll be in the playoffs in two years. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 (edited) 1 hour ago, Milkman delivers said: We are such a hopeless fanbase that the team only being the second-worst team in the sport has people thinking we’ll be in the playoffs in two years. 2021 Orioles won 52 games, '22 won 83, '23 won 101. 2022 Tigers won 66, '23 won 78, '24 won 86, '25 on pace for 95. It's not like it's a crazy assertion. 'doom and gloom' just because seems like a more hopeless perspective. I mean, by definition, it's a lack of hope, innit. Edited August 17 by nrockway 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 1 hour ago, nrockway said: 2021 Orioles won 52 games, '22 won 83, '23 won 101. 2022 Tigers won 66, '23 won 78, '24 won 86, '25 on pace for 95. It's not like it's a crazy assertion. 'doom and gloom' just because seems like a more hopeless perspective. I mean, by definition, it's a lack of hope, innit. Orioles had the #1 farm system, and the Tigers were darned close. Tigers also have been spending more and more each year. JR simply isn't going go to go back to the $145-150 million payroll range again with negligible tv money coming in...$20-25 million compared to $70 million previously. 2020-2022 taught him a hard lesson. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 (edited) 32 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Orioles had the #1 farm system, and the Tigers were darned close. Tigers also have been spending more and more each year. JR simply isn't going go to go back to the $145-150 million payroll range again with negligible tv money coming in...$20-25 million compared to $70 million previously. 2020-2022 taught him a hard lesson. It's weird how we look at billionaires who have made their fortunes on OPM, but suddenly they have "learned their lesson", and will never find a way to make money flow again. Ishbia doesn't want to take over in 2030, or whenever, and relive the 2024 season. Rich businessmen have ways of developing new revenue streams. Edited August 17 by WestEddy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Orioles had the #1 farm system, and the Tigers were darned close. Tigers also have been spending more and more each year. JR simply isn't going go to go back to the $145-150 million payroll range again with negligible tv money coming in...$20-25 million compared to $70 million previously. 2020-2022 taught him a hard lesson. Analysts ranked this iteration of the Sox farm system 2nd through 6th before a lot of the graduations, as I recall. Tigers aren't really spending money, the only vet they've given a multi-year contract to in recent memory is Javy Baez which was ahead of their 66 win season (down from 77 wins). Reminiscent of signing Benintendi after an 81 win season before losing 101 the next. DET is 15th in payroll as a team looking to compete for a World Series. Our Sox were 6th in payroll in that 81-81 season, 8th in payroll in 2011 coming off an 88 win season. The problem doesn't tend to be payroll, it's been bad management. Obviously JR is the source of bad management, but I'm not sure it's a money issue. Whether or not JR will spend money seems like speculation. Who knows what lessons he learned, I haven't asked him. It seems like a logical assumption, but it would also hold true for every other non-LAD/BOS/NYY team. History of the Sox/Bulls suggests that the pocketbook opens up (to some extent. Bulls mighta won a title if they paid the luxury tax in 2010-11) when the team is in a position to compete. It opened up for Albert Belle right after the strike, seemingly contradictory to his 'philosophy'. The team was garbage in 2022 and they still overpaid Benintendi instead of taking a flyer on Teoscar Hernandez or Cody Bellinger. If I was going to speculate on JR's psyche, I might think: the team is sold, Reinsdorf is 90-years-old...this is his last chance, if he was ever going to spend money, it would be now. Not sure who they'd spend it on though. I'd go after Kyle Tucker, but why would he come here, and I'd also wait a year and see what parts of the roster actually need to be supplemented. Besides, my post was only to say that this is the third year of the rebuild and the team's fortunes seem to be turning around in a similar way as those other two teams that really don't spend any money. Orioles blew it by not spending, the Tigers might blow it in the same way. I think the Sox farm has some things in common with those Orioles guys too. Colson is Gunnar. Teel/Quero are Rutschman. Hagen and Schultz are Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Tim Elko is Coby Mayo. Jackson Holliday is Popeye Rodriguez. 2027 is a more logical assumption than 2030. 2030 doesn't make any sense as a timeline, all of our current prospects will be approaching 30 and nearing free agency at that point, it'll likely be a totally different team. It genuinely makes no sense because we'd be speculating on players who are still in high school. Or maybe it's an optimistic take and Alejandro Cruz, Eduardo Herrera, Yobal Rodriguez are the future of the franchise. I That doesn't mean it'll work out, all these guys could bomb, but I would probably change my perspective on the front office if we're not halfway competitive in 2027. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 If you actually line up the players we have now, and the players still in the farm system, and start to realistically project who arrives, and when they probably arrive, the Sox are still missing a lot of line up players and power in 2027. MAYBE what happened to Schultz, Smith, and Taylor all largely flopping as starters gets fixed next year, and you can start to project them a bit more dependablely, but outside of Braden, there are no OFs. There is no realistic 30 homer power. The pen MIGHT come together, if again, all the guys who fell back this year, suddenly all move forward again. The other highest ceiling hitters are all so young. Even if this bucket of kids get to the majors, they all won't hit at once, and they definitely won't stick at once. Some kids take years to figure it out, and the Sox aren't dripping with replacements. Realistically, 2027 is a good year to maybe hope toward push .500. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 30 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: If you actually line up the players we have now, and the players still in the farm system, and start to realistically project who arrives, and when they probably arrive, the Sox are still missing a lot of line up players and power in 2027. MAYBE what happened to Schultz, Smith, and Taylor all largely flopping as starters gets fixed next year, and you can start to project them a bit more dependablely, but outside of Braden, there are no OFs. There is no realistic 30 homer power. The pen MIGHT come together, if again, all the guys who fell back this year, suddenly all move forward again. The other highest ceiling hitters are all so young. Even if this bucket of kids get to the majors, they all won't hit at once, and they definitely won't stick at once. Some kids take years to figure it out, and the Sox aren't dripping with replacements. Realistically, 2027 is a good year to maybe hope toward push .500. The test will be who they acquire in free agency/trades. Not prospects, but real players. Detroit surprised a lot of people last year, I think that’s the ‘27 team. Now I think Detroit is the favorite to come out of the (weak) AL. Could be the Sox in 2028. I mean, we’ll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 11 minutes ago, nrockway said: The test will be who they acquire in free agency/trades. Not prospects, but real players. Detroit surprised a lot of people last year, I think that’s the ‘27 team. Now I think Detroit is the favorite to come out of the (weak) AL. Could be the Sox in 2028. I mean, we’ll see. Between stadium, debt, and the awful state of this team, I don't see them spending beyond the C/D/F tiers of free agency for a while. The Sox are largely out of trade bullets unless Luis Robert defies the odds and #1, has his option exercised, #2 is healthy for another season, and #3, gives us his 2nd both healthy and productive season in 7 seasons. This vague "well [insert team here] did it" is basically ignoring the situation on the ground. Who and how? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 9 minutes ago, nrockway said: The test will be who they acquire in free agency/trades. Not prospects, but real players. Detroit surprised a lot of people last year, I think that’s the ‘27 team. Now I think Detroit is the favorite to come out of the (weak) AL. Could be the Sox in 2028. I mean, we’ll see. When projecting possibilities two factors have to be in play: 1, Is JR still in charge for obvious reasons 2. How will the upcoming labor lockout/impasse impact revenue as well as JR's attitude towards things in the next few years if he is still in charge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 (edited) When was their system ranked 2nd in baseball? Not doubting, just curious. Id argue the difference was all those teams had a few ++ big league pieces that their #1-2 farm was joining. The Sox had one MLB piece on their roster without those guys. Edited August 17 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 (edited) Considering system rankings, MLB Pipeline had the White Sox ranked 6th, preseason. Fangraphs had us 8th, BA 4th. Bleacher Report had the Sox 3rd. Keith Law had us 12th. Edited August 17 by WestEddy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 I will also note that with the teams in front of us, most have farm systems rated as good as, or better than, what the Sox currently have. Kind of hard to make up ground if the teams you are chasing are developing young at cheap talent at the same-ish rate that you are. Going off of MLB which rated as of a few days ago 2. Twins 5. Cleveland 6. Detroit 17. Sox 25. KC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: Between stadium, debt, and the awful state of this team, I don't see them spending beyond the C/D/F tiers of free agency for a while. The Sox are largely out of trade bullets unless Luis Robert defies the odds and #1, has his option exercised, #2 is healthy for another season, and #3, gives us his 2nd both healthy and productive season in 7 seasons. This vague "well [insert team here] did it" is basically ignoring the situation on the ground. Who and how? I don't know how you can predict who is going to be a worthwhile free agent/trade target two years from now. I can't read the future. Why would I make an absolutist statement and say: we need to get this guy two years from now? I said it's a test for Getz and his staff, not for me. I'm not the GM, I'm some guy on the internet. I wrote a post recently about who the Sox could've traded Steven Wilson for and offered non-vague options because we can look at how those players are performing today, or otherwise how prospects might project. Who the hell knows who is going to be very good in two years and also a free agent. It also depends on how the current players are looking. What if Fauske, Wolkow, B Montgomery are all superstars? What if Quero and Teel both bust? Suddenly, it's not an outfielder problem, it's a catcher problem. It depends, dude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: When was their system ranked 2nd in baseball? Not doubting, just curious. Id argue the difference was all those teams had a few ++ big league pieces that their #1-2 farm was joining. The Sox had one MLB piece on their roster without those guys. thought Fangraphs had us at 2 in the 2024 update, but guess not! I don't think the specific rating matters too much, it's fairly arbitrary. It was a well-regarded farm system that was built pretty quickly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 9 minutes ago, nrockway said: I don't know how you can predict who is going to be a worthwhile free agent/trade target two years from now. I can't read the future. Why would I make an absolutist statement and say: we need to get this guy two years from now? I said it's a test for Getz and his staff, not for me. I'm not the GM, I'm some guy on the internet. I wrote a post recently about who the Sox could've traded Steven Wilson for and offered non-vague options because we can look at how those players are performing today, or otherwise how prospects might project. Who the hell knows who is going to be very good in two years and also a free agent. It also depends on how the current players are looking. What if Fauske, Wolkow, B Montgomery are all superstars? What if Quero and Teel both bust? Suddenly, it's not an outfielder problem, it's a catcher problem. It depends, dude. Then how are you also simultaneously able to project the playoffs in two years? I mean it is easy to say "what if", what if Schultz and Smith are what they were this year? What if the high level relievers continue to struggle? What if we continue to not develop OFs? What if we continue to play in the shallow end of the FA pool. Guess what, my what ifs are already happening and are realistic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 He will have the worst record of any two first seasons as a GM. Yikes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 He has no idea how to evaluate talent 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 10 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: He will have the worst record of any two first seasons as a GM. Yikes. He is in the running for literally the worst 2 seasons in MLB history 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 28 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: He will have the worst record of any two first seasons as a GM. Yikes. Not his fault… Its all Hahn’s fault… Getz is improving… Blah blah more BS… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegner Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 Just now, WhiteSox2023 said: Not his fault… Its all Hahn’s fault… Getz is improving… Blah blah more BS… No Major League baseball team should be this bad. I agree with you 100%. How the hell do we absolve the current guy in charge when this team is so devoid of talent? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 23 minutes ago, fathom said: He has no idea how to evaluate talent Just wait until we have a starting outfield of DeLoach in LF, Zavala in CF, and Fletcher in RF. You can apologize then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
77 Hitmen Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 26 minutes ago, fathom said: He has no idea how to evaluate talent This current front office has not proven to me that they can draft, develop players, or trade for players competently. And Getz has had terrible results so far in the latter two. Maybe the Crochet deal will work out well for us, but last I saw, we don't have any other Garret Crochets sitting around to be traded for a decent haul. "Well, the [name some other MLB team] went from 100+ losses to the playoffs in a couple of years, therefore so can we" is terrible game plan for a MLB franchise. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 (edited) 19 minutes ago, 77 Hitmen said: This current front office has not proven to me that they can draft, develop players, or trade for players competently. And Getz has had terrible results so far in the latter two. Maybe the Crochet deal will work out well for us, but last I saw, we don't have any other Garret Crochets sitting around to be traded for a decent haul. "Well, the [name some other MLB team] went from 100+ losses to the playoffs in a couple of years, therefore so can we" is terrible game plan for a MLB franchise. Put it another way "hope" is no way to run a successful franchise. Edited August 17 by Lip Man 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
77 Hitmen Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 (edited) 5 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: Between stadium, debt, and the awful state of this team, I don't see them spending beyond the C/D/F tiers of free agency for a while. The Sox are largely out of trade bullets unless Luis Robert defies the odds and #1, has his option exercised, #2 is healthy for another season, and #3, gives us his 2nd both healthy and productive season in 7 seasons. This vague "well [insert team here] did it" is basically ignoring the situation on the ground. Who and how? And I doubt Ishbia's cash infusion over the next couple of years is going to be used to throw money at A/B tier free agents when the entire organization is still a money-losing mess that is bad at evaluating and developing talent. Even with the sweetheart stadium lease that Jerry has, the team simply isn't brining in a lot of money. The TV money is significantly less than in the past, fan interest has tanked, I'd imagine sponsorship money is down big time, and the stadium does nothing to bring in more fans or generate more revenue other than parking. Edited August 17 by 77 Hitmen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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