Nola back to Philly, 7/$172

[bmags]

https://x.com/jeffpassan/status/1726281514995114057?s=46&t=9lkBcVJmwvxFpyVi5DNtCg

[Bob Sacamano]

Cease controlled for 2 years with an estimated salary of $8.3M (per Spotrac) should command a nice return.

[bmags]

13 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Cease controlled for 2 years with an estimated salary of $8.3M (per Spotrac) should command a nice return.

It is so bizarre to me how poorly starting pitchers do in arb. Relievers are treated better

[ChiSoxJon]

Back end of that may be rough, but he's a low tier ace...Happy for PHI and him

[Rowand44]

1 hour ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Back end of that may be rough, but he's a low tier ace...Happy for PHI and him

Certainly not disagreeing with you but this is what good teams do.  They know they’re going to take a hit on the backend but worth it to try and get a championship on the front end.

[Chicago White Sox]

An extra year and $22M more than what MLBTR and FG were projecting.  And Nola wanted to return to Philadelphia, so it’s possible he took a little less.

@Balta1701 - You still think it’s a buyer’s market?

[Tnetennba]

Must be nice…

[SoCalChiSox]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

An extra year and $22M more than what MLBTR and FG were projecting.  And Nola wanted to return to Philadelphia, so it’s possible he took a little less.

@Balta1701 - You still think it’s a buyer’s market?

But..but we were told Cease had relatively little value because owners would somehow prefer to pay well over a hundred million dollars and burn through their profits!

[Chicago White Sox]

42 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

An extra year and $22M more than what MLBTR and FG were projecting.  And Nola wanted to return to Philadelphia, so it’s possible he took a little less.

@Balta1701 - You still think it’s a buyer’s market?

Heyman confirmed Nola turned down more money to stay in Philadelphia, which means the market for top end SP is officially insane balls.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, SoCalChiSox said:

But..but we were told Cease had relatively little value because owners would somehow prefer to pay well over a hundred million dollars and burn through their profits!

Lol…I do enjoy the fact that Balta actually believes two months of Giolito would command the same return as two years of Cease just four months later.

[Chicago White Sox]

Real talk, but what would the high end pitchers (non Ohtani) be getting on a two year deal in this market?  $80M total?  Cease as a 4 win pitcher at $20M would basically have $60M of surplus value.  And that’s before factoring in a scarcity premium and some value attributed to a likely compensation pick at the end of his deal.

[South Side Hit Men]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Real talk, but what would the high end pitchers (non Ohtani) be getting on a two year deal in this market?  $80M total?  Cease as a 4 win pitcher at $20M would basically have $60M of surplus value.  And that’s before factoring in a scarcity premium and some value attributed to a likely compensation pick at the end of his deal.

I’d say perhaps a little lower but close, say $60M-$65M over 2 years plus say a $5M-$10M buyout or solid player option for the top five pitchers this year.

Spotrac has Kershaw at $37M AAV, the other top pitchers in the $20M-$25M AAV range. Think Keyshawn will get a little less and the others more.

The top of the market will be significantly lighter this year with SD and NYM looking to shed payroll, and not many others stepping up to take their place.

[WestEddy]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Real talk, but what would the high end pitchers (non Ohtani) be getting on a two year deal in this market?  $80M total?

Aren't Scherzer and Verlander getting $40 million per?

[South Side Hit Men]

22 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Aren't Scherzer and Verlander getting $40 million per?

Cohen money, but he is cutting back this year. With the SD owner dying and team also cutting back, and the Dodgers focusing on Ohtani and the FA out there this year, I don’t see $40M AAV SP contracts beyond Ohtani who can’t pitch to start his deal.

Boras has Montgomery and Snell, so it will be interesting how he will leverage the Nola signing for these two clients and whether they get more. Would say Yamamoto is the only other non Ohtani pitcher who may top the Nola deal, and Bellinger the lone possible position player (Yankees might get him).

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Real talk, but what would the high end pitchers (non Ohtani) be getting on a two year deal in this market?  $80M total?  Cease as a 4 win pitcher at $20M would basically have $60M of surplus value.  And that’s before factoring in a scarcity premium and some value attributed to a likely compensation pick at the end of his deal.

Giolito is rated #8-12 on most lists, Lopez in the 19-23 range...pretty hard to believe, but that's how scant the pitching market is.

 

Flaherty SEEMS to be racking up about the same amount of interest as Giolito, and there are obvious reasons for comparisons.

Wouldn't mind seeing him back with Katz, but can't imagine that JR will sign off on even that if it comes in around the Clevinger range of $$$ and years.

 

Really think some are underselling Cease and what he's truly worth with two affordable years left AND his very reliable durability to take the ball for 30+ starts.

[Balta1701]

5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

An extra year and $22M more than what MLBTR and FG were projecting.  And Nola wanted to return to Philadelphia, so it’s possible he took a little less.

@Balta1701 - You still think it’s a buyer’s market?

So teams won’t overvalue prospects right?

[caulfield12]

18 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Cohen money, but he is cutting back this year. With the SD owner dying and team also cutting back, and the Dodgers focusing on Ohtani and the FA out there this year, I don’t see $40M AAV SP contracts beyond Ohtani who can’t pitch to start his deal.

Boras has Montgomery and Snell, so it will be interesting how he will leverage the Nola signing for these two clients and whether they get more. Would say Yamamoto is the only other non Ohtani pitcher who may top the Nola deal, and Bellinger the lone possible position player (Yankees might get him).

Can't imagine the Angels and pretty much the entire AL Central (DET might be the only team adding payroll) would be involved in much...unless LAA shocked the world by trading let's say Trout to the Phillies or Yankees.  

Milwaukee definitely is looking at something close to a full rebuild, but then you've got the rest of the division outside of Chicago and St. Louis financially-challenged, and even the Cardinals are going to have to be careful with their spending coming off such a disappointing season and with Goldschmidt/Arenado both on the books.

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So teams won’t overvalue prospects right?

If they want to follow the Baltimore/Cincy low budget model...

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Can't imagine the Angels and pretty much the entire AL Central (DET might be the only team adding payroll) would be involved in much...unless LAA shocked the world by trading let's say Trout to the Phillies or Yankees.  

Milwaukee definitely is looking at something close to a full rebuild, but then you've got the rest of the division outside of Chicago and St. Louis financially-challenged, and even the Cardinals are going to have to be careful with their spending coming off such a disappointing season and with Goldschmidt/Arenado both on the books.

Most assume the bottom 20 teams will spend little overall. My point is the Top 10 are going into this offseason with few teams looking to add beyond Ohtani and a couple other players. There will be a substantial drop off in total FA spending from the $3.7B committed last offseason due to the Padres and Mets looking to cut, and the other teams already near / above the "luxury tax" threshold.

2024 Tracker https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

2023 FA Spending (Total Players Contracts) $3,691M / 140 Players

1. $574.5M New York A. L. (5 Players Signed) $33M Under 2024 tax threshold
2. $423.2M New York N. L. (9) Looking to cut payroll.
3. $399.0M Philadelphia (5) Close to the 2024 threshold after the Nola $172M signing.
4. $380.0M San Diego (8) - Looking to cut payroll.
5. $310.5M Chicago N. L. (10) $64M Under 2024 tax threshold
6. $247.5M Texas (5) - $50M Under 2024 tax threshold
7. $243.0M Minnesota (4)  Looking to cut payroll.
8. $174.0M San Francisco (6) $103M Under 2024 tax threshold
9. $105.0M Houston (3) $49M Under 2024 tax threshold
10. $90.0M Chicago White Sox (3) - 75 of 90 Andrew Benintendi - Is this real life? Looking to cut payroll.
11. $744.3M Remaining 20 Teams
    1. Los Angeles N.L. $124M Under 2024 tax threshold - How much beyond Ohtani? Kershaw returning? Dodgers and Giants will be the top two IMO.
    2. Saint Louis $112M Under 2024 tax threshold - Will spend on a few pitchers, but not come close to the cap.
    3. Los Angeles A.L. $99M Under 2024 tax threshold - Will spend some but definitely staying under the cap.
    4. Toronto $93M Under 2024 tax threshold - Will spend but not come close to the cap.
    5. Boston $93M Under 2024 tax threshold - Will spend but not come close to the cap.
    6. Atlanta $59M Under 2024 tax threshold Will spend but not exceed the cap.

I could see Seattle, Detroit, Arizona taking on a few mid tier type contracts. Same with Cincinnati and Baltimore who are both under $40M at this stage of the offseason but both having bottom 10 cheap ass ownership groups.  Everyone else will do half ass bullshit and not much more.

[ChiSoxJon]

8 hours ago, Rowand44 said:

Certainly not disagreeing with you but this is what good teams do.  They know they’re going to take a hit on the backend but worth it to try and get a championship on the front end.

Absolutely, shame that's not us

 

Also a shame we essentially did this with Grandal, Kuechel, and Benintendi...2 losers and and overrated, solid contact hitter

[TheFutureIsNear]

19 hours ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Back end of that may be rough, but he's a low tier ace...Happy for PHI and him

Is Nola really a low tier ace? He’s been largely a 3/4 with 2 low tier ace years mixed in. That’s a lot of $ for a SP that’s had an era above 4.4 2 of the past 3 years…I know the Phillies have it and SP’s aren’t easy to come by, but definitely a good bit of risk here. 

[wrathofhahn]

18 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Heyman confirmed Nola turned down more money to stay in Philadelphia, which means the market for top end SP is officially insane balls.

Look at what Rondon got last year.

Signing any pitcher to 7 years is "insane balls" there is just so much that can go wrong with their arms. Like if the plan is to trade cease for a huge return rather than sign him to a Nola like extension sign me up.

Mid-market teams should be moving every valuable pitching asset 1-3 years before free agency the Rays have been doing it for years. When is the last time when these huge big money extensions have worked out well for their clubs? Yu Darvish? Rodon? Patrick Corbyn? Grienke? Bauer? Robbie Ray? Jacob deGrom

In fact it would be easier to name the signings that has worked out well recently. Off memory Grossman. Eduardo. Gerrit Cole

Edited November 20, 2023 by wrathofhahn

[bmags]

27 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Look at what Rondon got last year.

Signing any pitcher to 7 years is "insane balls" there is just so much that can go wrong with their arms. Like if the plan is to trade cease for a huge return rather than sign him to a Nola like extension sign me up.

Mid-market teams should be moving every valuable pitching asset 1-3 years before free agency the Rays have been doing it for years. When is the last time when these huge big money extensions have worked out well for their clubs? Yu Darvish? Rodon? Patrick Corbyn? Grienke? Bauer? Robbie Ray? Jacob deGrom

In fact it would be easier to name the signings that has worked out well recently. Off memory Grossman. Eduardo. Gerrit Cole

Rodon/DeGrom/Ray are only 1 year in. Bauer...i mean come on.

Grienke/Darvish they got out of pretty easily. Corbin they didn't, but did win a world series...I think they'll take it.

Sox fans pine for more aggressive spending but have a real Reinsdorf mentality. When you sign these players to a contract you don't have to keep them that whole contract. You can trade them and eat some of the cost but largely operate as normal. It's not that big of a deal.

[caulfield12]

44 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Look at what Rondon got last year.

Signing any pitcher to 7 years is "insane balls" there is just so much that can go wrong with their arms. Like if the plan is to trade cease for a huge return rather than sign him to a Nola like extension sign me up.

Mid-market teams should be moving every valuable pitching asset 1-3 years before free agency the Rays have been doing it for years. When is the last time when these huge big money extensions have worked out well for their clubs? Yu Darvish? Rodon? Patrick Corbyn? Grienke? Bauer? Robbie Ray? Jacob deGrom

In fact it would be easier to name the signings that has worked out well recently. Off memory Grossman. Eduardo. Gerrit Cole

In fact one of the offers was an exact match of Rodon…Braves and Dodgers all within $10-15 million of Phillies’ offer, so those two now become logical/obvious Cease trade targets.

“The Braves, off back-to-back 100-win seasons and divisional-round ousters by the Phillies, made a six-year, $162 million offer to Nola out of the chute, a source said Sunday. It was a sensible starting point. Atlanta’s bid equaled the Yankees’ deal with free-agent lefty Carlos Rodón last winter.

It was also neither the Braves’ final offer nor the only one that Nola received. The deep-pocketed — and pitching-starving — Dodgers put a finger on the scale at $165 million, according to a source. Phillies officials suspected more teams were involved, with at least one other club offering more.”

Who was that other club?

Philadelphia Enquirer/sports/Scott Lauber

Edited November 20, 2023 by caulfield12