Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for Ortiz/Hall/34th Pick

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

10-12 homers per year and a 2.5-3ish fWAR ceiling isn’t bad but the White Sox need infielders that can out up HaSeong Kim numbers from 2022, which is nearly double Ortiz’s likely peak.

He’s a nice complementary player hitting at the bottom of the order that might well outdo Westburg and Norby.

He's not a burner that will get you 30-40 steals, either.

 

Yolmer Sanchez at his peak might have been closer than Madrigal.  He won a GG.

But then Ortiz didn’t end up at Top 10 future SS/2B or Best Tools either.

Opinions are wide-ranging.  Age is against him.  Hall, for example, on Top Ten lists for 3-4 years and consistently Top 100 MiLB as well.  Ortiz a late bloomer who will have to prove himself each and every year to retain his spot because he wasn’t a high draft pick.

 

 

 

Mateo, with a far worse bat, was worth 3.3 fWAR a few years ago.  Ortiz has a higher ceiling than you are saying. 

I have no issue with anyone here not wanting him because of his age. That’s fine and it’s not something that I really disagree with for you guys.

However, that’s a big difference between saying he’s similar to Lopez or Madrigal. You never know how a player will develop but Ortiz has the defensive ability to compete for a GG at 3 different positions. He has high exit velos and contact rates. The issue for him right now is that he hits a lot of ground balls. He has to improve on his launch angles. Now, as he does that, will he lose any of the other stuff that makes him successful with the bat?  That remains to be seen but he’s a very good talent and can do a lot of things for a winning team.

I think that was always the point and it’s Frobby’s Point. He is a talented guy that is ranked around or ahead of many of the players you guys have kicked around. Again, I get that some of them may be 2-4 years younger but I’m talking solely about the talent, not the age.

Id be pretty surprised if Ortiz wasn’t an everyday player that is successful. His defense will keep him around for a long time.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Rolle Tide said:

There was some suggestion of the same thing on the Orioles board. I wonder how you guys would be feeling if that was the return for Cease. I think Burnes has the better overall numbers but one less year of control. There is hope on the Brewers board that Hall can go back to the rotation. I know he’s preparing for a shot a the rotation. I think his success will be as a high leverage reliever 

Given that the White Sox can hold onto Cease and see what happens in the first half, I would have not had interest in this return for Cease.

If he has a bad first half, the White Sox will have pressure to actually move him, and taking a comparable package at the deadline may be the outcome.

[hogan873]

If this does indeed significantly lessen the chances Cease is traded, I'm still okay with not trading him to Baltimore for a likely sub-par return.  I get the injury risk involved by keeping him, but that's not a reason to give in and take a bad return.  Looking at what Milwaukee got back, and even considering the extra year on Cease, I don't think a deal was ever close with Baltimore.

This move could push the Yankees or Red Sox to go after Cease, or maybe a team in the now wide open NL Central steps up.  Regardless, Getz did a good job of not giving in.  Let's see what happens over the next few weeks...and into the season of it comes to that.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

10 hours ago, fathom said:

Wonder if Brewers trade Williams to Yankees now

Why did they sign Hoskins?

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo, with a far worse bat, was worth 3.3 fWAR a few years ago.  Ortiz has a higher ceiling than you are saying. 

I have no issue with anyone here not wanting him because of his age. That’s fine and it’s not something that I really disagree with for you guys.

However, that’s a big difference between saying he’s similar to Lopez or Madrigal. You never know how a player will develop but Ortiz has the defensive ability to compete for a GG at 3 different positions. He has high exit velos and contact rates. The issue for him right now is that he hits a lot of ground balls. He has to improve on his launch angles. Now, as he does that, will he lose any of the other stuff that makes him successful with the bat?  That remains to be seen but he’s a very good talent and can do a lot of things for a winning team.

I think that was always the point and it’s Frobby’s Point. He is a talented guy that is ranked around or ahead of many of the players you guys have kicked around. Again, I get that some of them may be 2-4 years younger but I’m talking solely about the talent, not the age.

Id be pretty surprised if Ortiz wasn’t an everyday player that is successful. His defense will keep him around for a long time.

Yolmer Sanchez was capable of winning a GG at 3B and did at 2B…and a little short on arm for SS.   First got to the big leagues at a much younger age.  Lest we forget, Nicky Lopez had a 6 fWAR season a full three years ago with the Royals.  Ortiz is unlikely to ever reach that, I’m pretty sure we can agree.

Yolmer for his part peaked at 2 and 2.2.

We’ll just have to wait and see. Mateo had that one year but certainly hasn’t repeated it or really come close…that said, the Padres gave up on him because they simply had too much infield talent at the time and he didn’t perform well at the big league level, albeit in limited opportunities.

Madrigal was once deemed to be the best high school player in the country and a consensus Top 3-8 first rounder…but has ended up getting outplayed by Stephen Kwan from their OSU team at the big league level.

[Snopek]

9 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Tbh, that roster competes for the division title. I don’t know what it would cost but I don’t think that payroll would be higher than what they had going into the 2023 season.

We all know this division sucks, but I think you’re vastly underestimating how wide the gap is between the Sox and the Twins.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yolmer Sanchez was capable of winning a GG at 3B and did at 2B…and a little short on arm for SS.   First got to the big leagues at a much younger age.  Lest we forget, Nicky Lopez had a 6 fWAR season a full three years ago with the Royals.  Ortiz is unlikely to ever reach that, I’m pretty sure we can agree.

Yolmer for his part peaked at 2 and 2.2.

We’ll just have to wait and see. Mateo had that one year but certainly hasn’t repeated it or really come close…that said, the Padres gave up on him because they simply had too much infield talent at the time and he didn’t perform well at the big league level, albeit in limited opportunities.

Madrigal was once deemed to be the best high school player in the country and a consensus Top 3-8 first rounder…but has ended up getting outplayed by Stephen Kwan from their OSU team at the big league level.

I only bring up Mateo to say that someone with an elite glove and no bat had a higher ceiling than what was said about Ortiz. 
 

Sanchez was never close to Ortiz with the bat in the minors.  I know he was younger but just saying, he wasn’t close.

Yep, Madrigal was a bust, no doubt. He was also never close to Ortiz with the bat in the minors.

The thing about Ortiz is the batted ball stats. He was in rarified air last year with the combo of his contact rates and exit velo numbers.  These aren’t things to ignore. I don’t know if Madrigal, with his mediocre MiL numbers, had those types of stats.

End of the day though, Ortiz clearly has value and is clearly viewed as an asset by most around baseball. Even if some lists barely had him outside their top 100, that doesn’t mean they don’t think he’s a good player.  Again, it makes sense for the WS to not target him(and btw, we have no idea if they did or didn’t).

However, it makes no sense to act like he’s not a good talent or a worthy piece in a trade, which many on here did. Clearly those people were wrong and they look rather foolish at this point, considering he was a big piece in a deal for an ace level pitcher, one who is better than Cease.   
 

Ortiz may end up not being much more than a UTi guy who sticks around for his glove. But I’m going to guess he out WARs many top 100 guys and many of the players you guys are clamoring for in a Cease trade.
 

 

Edited February 2 by Sports Guy

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

There for sure was too much Ortiz hate.  The only thing I didn't like about him was his age.  But if push came to shove and you got an offer of Kjerstad + Ortiz + a good 3rd piece, you'd have to do it.  Sounds like nothing close to that was offered.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep, Madrigal was a bust, no doubt. He was also never close to Ortiz with the bat in the minors.

 

With how the White Sox treated their minor leaguers under Hahn, quoting Madrigals minor league numbers to me as representing anything is about like quoting Madrigals taco eating competition numbers to me.

2019, Madrigal drafted with a wrist injury - the Sox play him and are surprised how bad he is, but people excuse it with a wrist injury.

2020 - the Minors don’t exist so no stats, but the White Sox do rush him up to the big leagues because that’s what they do.

2021 - the minors exist but the White Sox only leave him there long enough to get an extra bit of control. He is up by June, is weirdly bad at fundamentals, then gets hurt and traded.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

There for sure was too much Ortiz hate.  The only thing I didn't like about him was his age.  But if push came to shove and you got an offer of Kjerstad + Ortiz + a good 3rd piece, you'd have to do it.  Sounds like nothing close to that was offered.

I don’t know that nothing close to that was offered. My guess is one of Cowser, Kjerstad or Westburg was the lead…Hall probably was in the deal. And the third piece probably depended on the first piece.

But I just think Getz wanted more. 
 

If he could have had Cowser/Kjerstad, Ortiz and Hall or Westburg, Hall, Beavers and he turned them down, he’s a fool. That is way too much value coming back to say no to. But all reports, that’s a deal he definitely could have said no to. No way you go into the season risking injury or poor performance and walk away from those deals. 

[WhiteSox2023]

38 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Why did they sign Hoskins?

Was just thinking about this.  Weird offseason.  They are trying to compete while still turning their expiring contracts into new players.  Still seems pretty half-assed.

Edited February 2 by WhiteSox2023

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

With how the White Sox treated their minor leaguers under Hahn, quoting Madrigals minor league numbers to me as representing anything is about like quoting Madrigals taco eating competition numbers to me.

2019, Madrigal drafted with a wrist injury - the Sox play him and are surprised how bad he is, but people excuse it with a wrist injury.

2020 - the Minors don’t exist so no stats, but the White Sox do rush him up to the big leagues because that’s what they do.

2021 - the minors exist but the White Sox only leave him there long enough to get an extra bit of control. He is up by June, is weirdly bad at fundamentals, then gets hurt and traded.

That’s fine…but it doesn’t change how the 2 players performed in the minors and again, talking about how you guys wanted to value Ortiz and the bashing of his stats and saying he has no value, it was all foolish.

Saying you prefer younger talent is extremely sensible to me. But saying he isn’t good or trying to comp him to guys who just aren’t as good at similar stages of their career is just wrong. It always was. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

Was just thinking about this.  Weird offseason.

Not really if you think about it. I bet they trade Adames and get a ML ready starter.

They should have a solid pen, have good upside (although unknown for sure) in the rotation and they will be able to hit some.

How the young arms develop will be key but they still have a playoff window in 2024..it obviously is closed more without Burnes and Adames and that division has some rising teams but Milwaukee could still make some noise.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine…but it doesn’t change how the 2 players performed in the minors and again, talking about how you guys wanted to value Ortiz and the bashing of his stats and saying he has no value, it was all foolish.

Saying you prefer younger talent is extremely sensible to me. But saying he isn’t good or trying to comp him to guys who just aren’t as good at similar stages of their career is just wrong. It always was. 

Saying anything about Nick Madrigal’s minor league stats as though they mean a thing is just wrong. It always was.

[Harry Chappas]

Wasn't there chatter about a 3 way deal for Cease?

The Brewers make a lot of sense now.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Saying anything about Nick Madrigal’s minor league stats as though they mean a thing is just wrong. It always was.

Maybe but since many of you guys foolishly try to compare the 2, all things are on the table. If people weren’t some lazy in their evaluation, it wouldn’t be mentioned.

 

[Pale Sox]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine…but it doesn’t change how the 2 players performed in the minors and again, talking about how you guys wanted to value Ortiz and the bashing of his stats and saying he has no value, it was all foolish.

Saying you prefer younger talent is extremely sensible to me. But saying he isn’t good or trying to comp him to guys who just aren’t as good at similar stages of their career is just wrong. It always was. 

Madrigal’s last meaningful minor league time came in 2019 as a 22 year old, and he performed the same or better than Ortiz at the same stage of his career, slashing .341/.400/.451 in AA and .331/.398/.424 in AAA. 

But at the same time, who gives a s%*#. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Getz had a group of three players he targeted from the O's.  He wanted two of them.  The O's were only willing to give up one of them.  A deal was never going to happen because they were too far away.  Ortiz was not one of the three players.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

3 hours ago, Rolle Tide said:

There was some suggestion of the same thing on the Orioles board. I wonder how you guys would be feeling if that was the return for Cease. I think Burnes has the better overall numbers but one less year of control. There is hope on the Brewers board that Hall can go back to the rotation. I know he’s preparing for a shot a the rotation. I think his success will be as a high leverage reliever 

Cease would have brought back more than what Burnes did simple for the extra year of control. I personally think Hall is a high leverage RP, I don’t see him starting long term. I think the best get in the whole deal is the draft pick. For one year of Burnes, I don’t think it’s that terrible of a return.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Cease would have brought back more than what Burnes did simple for the extra year of control. I personally think Hall is a high leverage RP, I don’t see him starting long term. I think the best get in the whole deal is the draft pick. For one year of Burnes, I don’t think it’s that terrible of a return.

And that's a wash anyway since Burnes will get a QO. I agree though, I don't think it's as bad for Brewers as others have made it seem.

Edited February 2 by Bob Sacamano

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know that nothing close to that was offered. My guess is one of Cowser, Kjerstad or Westburg was the lead…Hall probably was in the deal. And the third piece probably depended on the first piece.

But I just think Getz wanted more. 
 

If he could have had Cowser/Kjerstad, Ortiz and Hall or Westburg, Hall, Beavers and he turned them down, he’s a fool. That is way too much value coming back to say no to. But all reports, that’s a deal he definitely could have said no to. No way you go into the season risking injury or poor performance and walk away from those deals. 

Yeah, I wouldn't have touched hall with a 10 foot pole.  I'm  fine declining if that hypotetical was proposed.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

4 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Getz had a group of three players he targeted from the O's.  He wanted two of them.  The O's were only willing to give up one of them.  A deal was never going to happen because they were too far away.  Ortiz was not one of the three players.

Kjerstad, Westburg and Cowser I imagine?

[Bob Sacamano]

10 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

 

I don't think it happens. I'm convinced moving Cease was required to clear $8M for any additional FA.

That's true. Part of me thinks one of the Spring Training invites is the RF, unfortunately. Though, with how this Cease thing is turning out, I wouldn't mind just putting the best defense possible behind Cease every start, even if that means Brett Phillips is the starting RF once every 5 days. He's definitely still the 4th OF but value at least put the best D possible behind your best trade chip.

Edited February 2 by Bob Sacamano

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Maybe but since many of you guys foolishly try to compare the 2, all things are on the table. If people weren’t some lazy in their evaluation, it wouldn’t be mentioned.

 

There’s plenty of ways you can say Ortiz is more useful than Madrigal if you have some experience with their system. He can play short, he’s more likely to stay healthy - “I saw his bat and it played with off the wall power” and that’s all insight we might not have.

But Rick Hahn’s horrific development of players and terrible use of his system is my area of expertise. So if you want to try to compare players or say a comp doesn’t work, fine - but don’t use numbers that are garbage, that we know are useless, and then repeat them like they mean something when we are the experts in that part. 

Nick Madrigals minor league numbers are meaningless. Rick Hahn steered his minor league development as well as a drunken sailor. This would be true if Madrigal was now an all star. Take his minor league numbers off the table or we will keep saying you’re making a useless argument when you bring them up. We are the experts in that part.

[fathom]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Maybe but since many of you guys foolishly try to compare the 2, all things are on the table. If people weren’t some lazy in their evaluation, it wouldn’t be mentioned.

 

They’re very similar players, and if Madrigal played in the minors his age 25 season, probably would have put up insane numbers. No one disliked his time with the Sox more than Harold and I, but he put up ridiculous defensive numbers last year.  I know I posted the YouTube highlights from Ortiz time in the majors last year, and it was shocking how similar their hitting styles were.

I don’t particular like the fit for the Brewers with Ortiz, as you’re not getting nearly enough power from 3/4 of your future infield in Turang, Ortiz and Black.