Streamer 600 Projections

[Ducksnort]

2 hours ago, almagest said:

If Murakami ends up with 2.1 fWAR and a 118 wRC+ I’d be pretty happy. That’s around an .800 OPS which compared to Vaughn looks like Big Frank is over there again.

What did Milwaukee do to unlock Vaughn's potential? Did they change anything about his swing? Did he just need a change of scenery? It's pretty wild how he completely turned into the hitter we all hoped he would be as soon as he was traded, and then sustained it.

[nrockway]

Robert slashed .298/.352/.456 in the second half across 125 plate appearances. Seems totally reasonable to expect that next season (if he’s healthy). 

[WhiteSox2023]

11 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Robert slashed .298/.352/.456 in the second half across 125 plate appearances. Seems totally reasonable to expect that next season (if he’s healthy). 

Not reasonable at all considering his last two full seasons, healthy or not.  His most recent two seasons of 856 plate appearances have been BAD.

Edited December 28, 2025 by WhiteSox2023

[Chicago White Sox]

29 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Not reasonable at all considering his last two full seasons, healthy or not.  His most recent two seasons of 856 plate appearances have been BAD.

His xwOBA was .322 last year which is slightly above league average.  Not sure how anyone would call that BAD for a CF.

[WhiteSox2023]

7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

His xwOBA was .322 last year which is slightly above league average.  Not sure how anyone would call that BAD for a CF.

I prefer to look at the actual stats he finished with over the past two seasons.

Edited December 28, 2025 by WhiteSox2023

[southsider2k5]

9 hours ago, nrockway said:

Robert slashed .298/.352/.456 in the second half across 125 plate appearances. Seems totally reasonable to expect that next season (if he’s healthy). 

125 PAs in half a season sounds about right.

[Lukakke Appling]

We really have devolved into an eristic society. 

[chitownsportsfan]

3 hours ago, Lukakke Appling said:

We really have devolved into an eristic society. 

"people ask me what I do in the winter when there's no baseball: I tell them I stare at the screen and argue on Soxtalk."

[WestEddy]

12 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Not reasonable at all considering his last two full seasons, healthy or not.  His most recent two seasons of 856 plate appearances have been BAD.

Robert hasn't been BAD. He's put up around 1.4 bWAR in about 100 games in each of the last two seasons, when stretched over 162 games is about 2 WAR, which is an average major leaguer. And he does have the ceiling of a 4-5 WAR player, if somebody can get him to tap into it again. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he could replicate what he did for a month's worth of games just this last year. If he worked through a hitch in his swing, or started reacting different to the way he's pitched, he doesn't decide in each at-bat he is the guy who OPSed .540 in August of 2024. 

[WhiteSox2023]

7 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Robert hasn't been BAD. He's put up around 1.4 bWAR in about 100 games in each of the last two seasons, when stretched over 162 games is about 2 WAR, which is an average major leaguer. And he does have the ceiling of a 4-5 WAR player, if somebody can get him to tap into it again. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he could replicate what he did for a month's worth of games just this last year. If he worked through a hitch in his swing, or started reacting different to the way he's pitched, he doesn't decide in each at-bat he is the guy who OPSed .540 in August of 2024. 

I was just talking about his bat, hence mentioning his PA over the past two seasons.  His defense is usually good.  And the reason you can’t just stretch out his WAR over 162 games is because he is always due for an injury each season.

[WestEddy]

14 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I was just talking about his bat, hence mentioning his PA over the past two seasons.  His defense is usually good.  And the reason you can’t just stretch out his WAR over 162 games is because he is always due for an injury each season.

Stretching for the sake of argument. He plays at the rate of an average major league player, even if it's just for 2/3 of a season. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 12/28/2025 at 6:56 AM, Lukakke Appling said:

We really have devolved into an eristic society. 

Have not !! 😋

[poppysox]

On 12/28/2025 at 1:57 PM, WestEddy said:

Stretching for the sake of argument. He plays at the rate of an average major league player, even if it's just for 2/3 of a season. 

We don't have anyone at this time who would do better.  Get some pitching and stop worrying about Robert IMO.

[WestEddy]

54 minutes ago, poppysox said:

We don't have anyone at this time who would do better.  Get some pitching and stop worrying about Robert IMO.

I think that's what they're doing. If somebody comes banging on the door with a package, the Sox will listen. 

[Chicago White Sox]

So random question on this.  Do we think that the Sox will have an above league average offense next year?  Looking at the Steamer projections it sure looks like a 100 wRC+ is probable.  Candidly speaking, if Murakami hits his projection I think we could crack the top 10, which would require a 105 wRC+.

[T R U]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So random question on this.  Do we think that the Sox will have an above league average offense next year?  Looking at the Steamer projections it sure looks like a 100 wRC+ is probable.  Candidly speaking, if Murakami hits his projection I think we could crack the top 10, which would require a 105 wRC+.

They are going to need someone from the OF to be good or I don't see how this is possible. I think the IF has a chance to be a really strong unit, especially if all the young guys take another step forward. We probably have the worst OF in baseball though as it currently stands.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So random question on this.  Do we think that the Sox will have an above league average offense next year?  Looking at the Steamer projections it sure looks like a 100 wRC+ is probable.  Candidly speaking, if Murakami hits his projection I think we could crack the top 10, which would require a 105 wRC+.

During their best extended stretch last year they were at about 94... if you shrink it down a little more you can get to 98. The problem with that group is they were terrible defenders (4th worst in baseball) and base runners (3rd worse in baseball), so even if they get that number to 100, you'd be looking at a position group in the top 14 in wRC+ but the bottom 10 of overall value.

That said, the position group has much more reason for some optimism than the pitching group, which is bottom 5 in baseball.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

17 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

During their best extended stretch last year they were at about 94... if you shrink it down a little more you can get to 98. The problem with that group is they were terrible defenders (4th worst in baseball) and base runners (3rd worse in baseball), so even if they get that number to 100, you'd be looking at a position group in the top 14 in wRC+ but the bottom 10 of overall value.

That said, the position group has much more reason for some optimism than the pitching group, which is bottom 5 in baseball.

 

Yeah I’m not at all optimistic on the pitching side (outside of a couple arms). It would be fun to actually add 2 more legit starters to the rotation and try to at least go for a “lightning in a bottle” situation where maybe if everything clicks and guys don’t regress and some guys take steps it can be a competitive season.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

During their best extended stretch last year they were at about 94... if you shrink it down a little more you can get to 98. The problem with that group is they were terrible defenders (4th worst in baseball) and base runners (3rd worse in baseball), so even if they get that number to 100, you'd be looking at a position group in the top 14 in wRC+ but the bottom 10 of overall value.

That said, the position group has much more reason for some optimism than the pitching group, which is bottom 5 in baseball.

 

We had a 98 wRC+ from July 1st forward.  The only real losses since then are Tauchman and Slater who combined for a ~105 wRC+.  If we keep Sosa and use our bench guys appropriately from a platoon standpoint, I think will be a little bit stronger than it was last year.  To go from average to good will certainly require Murakami to achieve his projections as previously mentioned.

The defense being bad is very much a TBD to me.  Robert, Colson, & Meidroth should be fine up the middle.  Benintendi is terrible in LF but sounds like they are trying to play him substantially less there.  Baldwin was awful in multiple spots, but I think he can improve in the outfield more reps.  Hill is a tremendous defender and Pereira should be more than solid in a corner.  Vargas is a question mark at 3B, but didn’t look terrible to me.  I have no idea how Murakami be at 1B, but I’d hope he’s not awful if he could play 3B in Japan.  Catcher is a bit of a wild card but hopefully the rule changes help Quero a bit and I think both him and Teel will continue to improve with time.  Don’t think it will be a good defensive unit, but not ready to say it will be bottom five or anything like that.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We had a 98 wRC+ from July 1st forward.  The only real losses since then are Tauchman and Slater who combined for a ~105 wRC+.  If we keep Sosa and use our bench guys appropriately from a platoon standpoint, I think will be a little bit stronger than it was last year.  To go from average to good will certainly require Murakami to achieve his projections as previously mentioned.

The defense being bad is very much a TBD to me.  Robert, Colson, & Meidroth should be fine up the middle.  Benintendi is terrible in LF but sounds like they are trying to play him substantially less there.  Baldwin was awful in multiple spots, but I think he can improve in the outfield more reps.  Hill is a tremendous defender and Pereira should be more than solid in a corner.  Vargas is a question mark at 3B, but didn’t look terrible to me.  I have no idea how Murakami be at 1B, but I’d hope he’s not awful if he could play 3B in Japan.  Catcher is a bit of a wild card but hopefully the rule changes help Quero a bit and I think both him and Teel will continue to improve with time.  Don’t think it will be a good defensive unit, but not ready to say it will be bottom five or anything like that.

Honestly, this post basically says:

The bad things you don't believe are actually bad, and the things that are OK are actually good. I'm not sure if it's because we're 3+ months removed from the season or what, but the scenarios being drawn up here are basically... everyone gets better, no one gets worse, and those who were not good surprise and are actually good. As of right now, the Sox have the 4th lowest projected WAR in baseball (NOT BY STEAMER, since STEAMER is not a way to project actual team WAR). This idea that they're some good-luck away from competing just doesn't add up to me. They might/should be more entertaining next year, but this is still one of the worst teams in MLB. Could they make some more adds and maybe get out of the bottom 5? I guess it's possible, but seems unlikely. Additionally, unlike some here I don't trust Getz to make any quality moves since his history is that of not making many quality moves. The only quality players he's acquired came from trading a top 3 pitcher in the game below his peak value (IMO), and someone he picked up in a Rule 5 draft. Almost every other move he has made has been a nothing burger and/or a failure.

Edited Friday at 02:24 PM by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Honestly, this post basically says:

The bad things you don't believe are actually bad, and the things that are OK are actually good. I'm not sure if it's because we're 3+ months removed from the season or what, but the scenarios being drawn up here are basically... everyone gets better, no one gets worse, and those who were not good surprise and are actually good. As of right now, the Sox have the 4th lowest projected WAR in baseball (NOT BY STEAMER, since STEAMER is not a way to project actual team WAR). This idea that they're some good-luck away from competing just doesn't add up to me. They might/should be more entertaining next year, but this is still one of the worst teams in MLB. Could they make some more adds and maybe get out of the bottom 5? I guess it's possible, but seems unlikely. Additionally, unlike some here I don't trust Getz to make any quality moves since his history is that of not making many quality moves. The only quality players he's acquired came from trading a top 3 pitcher in the game below his peak value (IMO), and someone he picked up in a Rule 5 draft. Almost every other move he has made has been a nothing burger and/or a failure.

I certainly think some guys will regress vs. their 2H production, but a lot of that is already reflected in the Steamer projections I highlighted above.  But generally speaking, I do expect talented young players to get better over time.  And that very much holds true on the defensive side of the ball for catchers and guys that are still somewhat new to positions like Baldwin (and maybe Vargas).  Overall, I’m very optimistic about the positional group, but would like to see one more OF addition to improve the floor of the team.

The pitching doesn’t look good on paper right now, but there is a tremendous of young arms that could enter the mix at some point and change the calculus.  I am also very high on Burke (I know you are not) and view Kay as a complete wild card who could perform better than most think.  All that being said, I still think another SP and RP is needed.  This bullpen could actually be decent with Newcomb and one more high leverage arm added to the pen.

Ultimately, you think there is zero chance of competing next year while I think with a few more additions there is some theoretical chance of being a fringe playoff team.  By no means do I think it’s likely, but W-L records are highly impacted by luck and if we have some good news go our way and have a few breakthrough performances next year it might just be possible.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I certainly think some guys will regress vs. their 2H production, but a lot of that is already reflected in the Steamer projections I highlighted above.  But generally speaking, I do expect talented young players to get better over time.  And that very much holds true on the defensive side of the ball for catchers and guys that are still somewhat new to positions like Baldwin (and maybe Vargas).  Overall, I’m very optimistic about the positional group, but would like to see one more OF addition to improve the floor of the team.

The pitching doesn’t look good on paper right now, but there is a tremendous of young arms that could enter the mix at some point and change the calculus.  I am also very high on Burke (I know you are not) and view Kay as a complete wild card who could perform better than most think.  All that being said, I still think another SP and RP is needed.  This bullpen could actually be decent with Newcomb and one more high leverage arm added to the pen.

Ultimately, you think there is zero chance of competing next year while I think with a few more additions there is some theoretical chance of being a fringe playoff team.  By no means do I think it’s likely, but W-L records are highly impacted by luck and if we have some good news go our way and have a few breakthrough performances next year it might just be possible.

I'll say this, I obviously hope you're right and I'm wrong!

[WestEddy]

35 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I certainly think some guys will regress vs. their 2H production, but a lot of that is already reflected in the Steamer projections I highlighted above.  But generally speaking, I do expect talented young players to get better over time.  And that very much holds true on the defensive side of the ball for catchers and guys that are still somewhat new to positions like Baldwin (and maybe Vargas).  Overall, I’m very optimistic about the positional group, but would like to see one more OF addition to improve the floor of the team.

The pitching doesn’t look good on paper right now, but there is a tremendous of young arms that could enter the mix at some point and change the calculus.  I am also very high on Burke (I know you are not) and view Kay as a complete wild card who could perform better than most think.  All that being said, I still think another SP and RP is needed.  This bullpen could actually be decent with Newcomb and one more high leverage arm added to the pen.

Ultimately, you think there is zero chance of competing next year while I think with a few more additions there is some theoretical chance of being a fringe playoff team.  By no means do I think it’s likely, but W-L records are highly impacted by luck and if we have some good news go our way and have a few breakthrough performances next year it might just be possible.

If some of the guys like Meidroth, Vargas, Sosa, Quero and Baldwin don't turn into (at least) average, 2 bWAR players, if Colson and Teel don't grow into 4+ bWAR dudes, if they can't develop a couple of 3+ bWAR starting pitchers, then what are we even doing? All I'm describing is natural development. Sure, Colson may play a full season and put up 2.5 WAR. That would be a step back. But imagining that nobody's going to improve beyond replacement level just seems unrealistic. 

I think this team is roughly a 75+ win team at this point. If the kids continue to develop, as you noted, if some of these young arms become effective or find some success quickly, a .500 record wouldn't surprise me. 

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

If some of the guys like Meidroth, Vargas, Sosa, Quero and Baldwin don't turn into (at least) average, 2 bWAR players, if Colson and Teel don't grow into 4+ bWAR dudes, if they can't develop a couple of 3+ bWAR starting pitchers, then what are we even doing? All I'm describing is natural development. Sure, Colson may play a full season and put up 2.5 WAR. That would be a step back. But imagining that nobody's going to improve beyond replacement level just seems unrealistic. 

I think this team is roughly a 75+ win team at this point. If the kids continue to develop, as you noted, if some of these young arms become effective or find some success quickly, a .500 record wouldn't surprise me. 

We'll see how it all shakes out. Injuries will also play a big part in how the season goes and the Sox track record the last several years hasn't been great in that department.

I just hope they don't lose 100+ games again this season. 

[FriendlyNorthsider]

Im not a betting man but if I were I would smash the over of 2.6 WAR for Colson Montgomery. I am higher on him than any player in the Sox org and even after last years power tear for the big club I think he’s being criminally slept on. 
 

The main concern for Colson is the K-Rate. His K rate in AAA last year was 33% which is a bright red flag but in 284 big league plate appearances he got it down to 29.2%. Certainly not great, in fact it would’ve placed him as having the 8th worst K rate in the league had he qualified. His 8.8% walk rate was around league average and was actually far lower than what he was able to do through most of his time in the minors. 
 

What I find particularly promising is that even with that K and BB profile as it is, he’s in the same range as guys like Eugenio Suarez, Riley Greene, Jazz Chisholm, and Byron Buxton who are 120+ RC+ guys. Those four guys share a key set of traits with Colson that allows them to succeed with those low rates. The swing hard and they barrel the ball at elite rates and when they’re squaring up the tend to be very strong pull hitters. That is a recipe for damage. Those guys are 3-5 war players and are established veterans who generally don’t provide the defensive value Colson provides. 
 

Assuming that Colson takes a big leap in BB and K rate is a bit optimistic. In fact, I think 27-29% is K rate is probably around where he’ll be most years. I think the walk rate has a much better shot of shooting up to 12% or so as he’s has shown better plate discipline in the minors and teams are going to have to respect the power a bit more. If he settles in with a 12% BB rate and 27% walk rate with how hard he swings and how much he finds the barrel you are looking at a perennial all star with upside for more. 
 

One of the things I mentioned about him last year was his off the charts infield fly rate in the minors. I’m not sure if the minor league clubs measured it wrong but that went right back down to where you would hope it would be. He went from twice league average!! in the minors to perfectly average. 
 

The next step in his career is the biggest and it has to do with plate recognition and getting ahead in counts. He hit fastballs well overall last year with a SLG of .514. His xSLG was only .390 but his whiff rate was 25.1% which was much better than what we saw elsewhere. 
 

When it came to sliders he was essentially Javy Baez. He had a .933 SLG in 33 PAs with a 47% whiff rate and 57% hard hit rate. It’s really hard to find a player as all or nothing on a pitch as him. 
 

With two strikes it wasn’t the slider that really burned him it was the change up. He had a 44% whiff rate and 36% put away rate on Change ups without nearly the same amount of changeups as sliders. He had a lot of trouble with curves and sweepers as well. 
 

When you look under the hood you see it’s not his chase % that gets him in trouble as he’s about league average. It’s that his chase contact rate is 40.7% compared to a league average of 58%. On pitches in the zone his contact rate is just about league average. What that tells me is he doesn’t have a huge discipline problem or a huge contact problem. It’s that when he chases an off speed pitch he isn’t close. That tells me it’s more of a pitch recognition problem as opposed to being a hole in his swing. For a young guy that came straight out of high school and ascended fast, I don’t think it’s too wild of an assumption to say he can improve in pitch recognition. Even if he chases, he should be in the same zip code and he’ll likely bite a lot less if he sees the ball better. 
 

How badly did this hurt him last year? With 2 strikes he was 15/131 (.115) with a .465 OPS and 83ks. When he was ahead in the count he had a 1.083 OPS. You’d expect big splits like this but ideally you get him ahead a bit more often. 
 

It goes a bit deeper than that. There is a .260 point OPS difference for Colson from being up 1-0 vs down 0-1. After 0-1 had a 40.6% k rate. After 1-0 his K rate was only 22.8%. Colson fell 0-1 in 145 PAs and got ahead in 105. You’d like to see that number improve. When he made contact on the first pitch (which he did 34 times) in 109 PAs where he swung first pitch he had .559 SLG on a .212 Babip for a guy who’s overall BABIP is .262. You’d like to hope when that sample gets bigger that’ll creep up. I’d have to look deeper into what exactly he was swinging at first pitch.
 

Colson is going to have to establish himself as a guy that’ll cause damage on first pitch strikes. If a pitcher knows that he is going to be aggressive first pitch, they’re going to try and get him to chase. Sometimes they’ll hang one and he’ll get him, sometimes it’ll be far enough that he’ll be able to take it for a ball. What he can’t do is take first pitch strikes. Thats .260 OPS points without getting a shot at it. 
 

If his problem was his chase rate I wouldn’t recommend him be that much more aggressive but he’s shown that he has a decent eye. Eventually when pitchers realize that his going to be aggressive first pitch they’re going to give him less to work with. I trust his eye to be able to lay off pitches that are clear misses. Long term I think that’ll get him to more 1-0 counts where we see the best version of Colson. 
 

The main thing about Colson that is constant is that he swings incredibly hard and barrels the ball incredibly well and pulls those balls at an incredible rate. That is a recipe for a monster home run hitter. The main hole in his game is that when he chases a pitch you get nothing from him. The fact that he has a decent eye makes optimistic that he can mitigate a lot of that damage with better pitch recognition and by changing the dynamics of his at bats by making himself dangerous on 0-0 counts. 
 

Colson actually saw a slightly above average amount of strikes last year. Hell probably see less this year and if his chase rate goes up a bit we’re going to see a regression. If he maintains his chase rate well see more walks and more hitters counts. Ultimately if he isn’t chasing at a high rate and he’s not being passive they have to attack at some point. 

Last year he had a first pitch strike rate of 63%. That’s a number I’ll watch closely next year as that is above average and something that if he can improve makes him that much closer to the Colson with a .260 point higher OPS

Edited 1 hour ago by FriendlyNorthsider