Sox acquire Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa

[Balta1701]

If the Sox do trade for him, they are going to have to give up value. Whether it is one year or not, you theoretically get a frontline pitcher for a discount, and if you can't sign him, you get a supplemental pick. So for the year of service, the 9 or 10 months of exclusive negotiation rights, and the insurance of a decent draft pick, it isn't like you are going to be able to get him for someone who doesn't have a really good chance of succeeding.

Which is exactly why this entire concept makes no sense unless we're getting a solid discount on his next contract. It's going to take someone solid to get him, there's a reason why Tim Anderson's name has come up. Tim Anderson would be a fair return for Samardzija and if the White Sox had won 87 games last year that would be a perfectly reasonable gamble for the team to take, that extra pitcher could put us over the top in 2015.

 

Since the White Sox have won 75 games the last 2 years, that deal suddenly makes no sense for us because even if everything goes right, making a 15 win jump is hard. The only way that would make sense is if we could look beyond 2015 and expect the pitcher to be present at a continuing discount.

[Dick Allen]

Which is exactly why this entire concept makes no sense unless we're getting a solid discount on his next contract. It's going to take someone solid to get him, there's a reason why Tim Anderson's name has come up. Tim Anderson would be a fair return for Samardzija and if the White Sox had won 87 games last year that would be a perfectly reasonable gamble for the team to take, that extra pitcher could put us over the top in 2015.

 

Since the White Sox have won 75 games the last 2 years, that deal suddenly makes no sense for us because even if everything goes right, making a 15 win jump is hard. The only way that would make sense is if we could look beyond 2015 and expect the pitcher to be present at a continuing discount.

I personally wouldn't give up Anderson. I think if they absolutely must have this guy, waiting a year, or even until June or July makes more sense.

[GreenSox]

Which is exactly why this entire concept makes no sense unless we're getting a solid discount on his next contract. It's going to take someone solid to get him, there's a reason why Tim Anderson's name has come up. Tim Anderson would be a fair return for Samardzija and if the White Sox had won 87 games last year that would be a perfectly reasonable gamble for the team to take, that extra pitcher could put us over the top in 2015.

 

Since the White Sox have won 75 games the last 2 years, that deal suddenly makes no sense for us because even if everything goes right, making a 15 win jump is hard. The only way that would make sense is if we could look beyond 2015 and expect the pitcher to be present at a continuing discount.

Exactly

I will say that 2 years of Alexei for 1 year of Shark is also fair. I hope they go that route, if they must go any route.

Edited December 8, 2014 by GreenSox

[Balta1701]

I personally wouldn't give up Anderson. I think if they absolutely must have this guy, waiting a year, or even until June or July makes more sense.

I wouldn't either, and I can't fathom why Billy Beane would give up Samardzija for less than that. Giving up a top 50-ish prospect in MLB for a pitcher like Samardzija should actually make sense for several teams around baseball. Just not the White Sox.

[shysocks]

Which is exactly why this entire concept makes no sense unless we're getting a solid discount on his next contract. It's going to take someone solid to get him, there's a reason why Tim Anderson's name has come up. Tim Anderson would be a fair return for Samardzija and if the White Sox had won 87 games last year that would be a perfectly reasonable gamble for the team to take, that extra pitcher could put us over the top in 2015.

 

Since the White Sox have won 75 games the last 2 years, that deal suddenly makes no sense for us because even if everything goes right, making a 15 win jump is hard. The only way that would make sense is if we could look beyond 2015 and expect the pitcher to be present at a continuing discount.

Yup. And expecting either that discount to be there or that extra negotiating window to have any meaning would be based on nothing substantial. I'd be surprised if Samardzija doesn't make it to free agency, wherever he ends up.

[ptatc]

I can't come up with parameters of any deal that makes sense for the White Sox to my eyes unless Samardzija gives the White Sox a large hometown discount that he wouldn't give the Cubs. Otherwise, moving anyone of even minor value from the White Sox's system for Samardzija seems silly to me and a much worse option than going and spending that huge, 9 figure money on someone like Shields or Scherzer.

The only way I see it as a good deal is if other players come to the Sox with him. For example the sox send Rameirez and Semien and the sox get JS and one of the top SS prospects they have plus another lower tier prospect.

[Dick Allen]

Oh, yea, we work well together.

Give them Durham for free.

Trade Foulke for Koch.

Trade 3/5 to prospects for that elite bat, Swisher.

 

Sure, Williams was always willing to pile on prospects, and that worked very well for Beane.

The White Sox might have won the WS in 2003 if they didn't do the Koch/Foulke trade. The Durham trade was ridiculous. The Sox picked up all his money except the pro-rated minimum so Beane would give them the great Jon Adkins.

 

As for the Swisher trade, if that thread was ever dug up, most here loved it, and other than Gio Gonzalez, the prospects weren't much.

[ptatc]

I wouldn't either, and I can't fathom why Billy Beane would give up Samardzija for less than that. Giving up a top 50-ish prospect in MLB for a pitcher like Samardzija should actually make sense for several teams around baseball. Just not the White Sox.

From his perspective, if he thinks one of his top SS prospects is 1 year away, he could get Rameirez on a two year deal and flip him after one. He needs to trade for a MLB ready SS as he doesn't have one. This is why I think Rameirez will be in the deal if it happens.

[Balta1701]

From his perspective, if he thinks one of his top SS prospects is 1 year away, he could get Rameirez on a two year deal and flip him after one. He needs to trade for a MLB ready SS as he doesn't have one. This is why I think Rameirez will be in the deal if it happens.

But of course, that makes no sense for the White Sox, even if we get back a "High level prospect" in return, because we're trading for a "win now" pitcher on a 1 year deal and then leaving ourselves with a gaping hole at shortstop with literally no one ready to fill it.

 

No one can tell me that having either Semien, Sanchez, Tim Anderson, or Saladino as our #1 starting shortstop in ST next year looks like a competitive, could win the central division roster. Ditto any "SS Prospect" Beane is willing to give up - if he had one ready he wouldn't trade or Alexei. That would leave the White Sox deciding whether to spend money on Jed Lowrie, Stephen Drew, or Asdrubal Cabrera to fill that SS hole.

 

In other words, we'd commit $10 mil next year to JS, another $5-$10 mil next year to a veteran shortstop, we'd upgrade the rotation but we'd downgrade the offense and the defense while giving up a year of team control for the key piece. That could make sense for an 87 win team again, but we're right back into "Why are we doing this" territory to me without an unreasonable, unexpected, long-term discount on the pitcher.

[GreenSox]

The White Sox might have won the WS in 2003 if they didn't do the Koch/Foulke trade. The Durham trade was ridiculous. The Sox picked up all his money except the pro-rated minimum so Beane would give them the great Jon Adkins.

 

As for the Swisher trade, if that thread was ever dug up, most here loved it, and other than Gio Gonzalez, the prospects weren't much.

I'll edit this down just to say that Beane took advantage of the young GM Williams in the Durham giveaway - which is why I don't understand why Williams does business with him. Oh, and then he laughed about it in his book.

Edited December 8, 2014 by GreenSox

[Balta1701]

De Lo Santos was our #2 pitching prospect - he was a washout but he had high value; so did Sweeney, who is still in the majors.. It was a bad value trade.

Williams made 3 bad value trades that one could say won the WS - the stars collided and Cotts had a career year. He sent Lee away for a salary dump + 2 middling players to give salary room to sign others; we gave a top 5 prospect in baseball plus a prospect named Michael Morse, plus our staring catcher for 1/2 year of Freddie Garcia.

Yea, it worked. But that's once in a lifetime fortune.

Well, there was a really good chance we'd be able to extend him when we did that deal, we got it done pretty quick IIRC.

[Dick Allen]

De Lo Santos was our #2 pitching prospect - he was a washout but he had high value; so did Sweeney, who is still in the majors.. It was a bad value trade.

Williams made 3 bad value trades that one could say won the WS - the stars collided and Cotts had a career year. He sent Lee away for a salary dump + 2 middling players to give salary room to sign others; we gave a top 5 prospect in baseball plus a prospect named Michael Morse, plus our staring catcher for 1/2 year of Freddie Garcia.

Yea, it worked. But that's once in a lifetime fortune.

I think the Sox knew Garcia would sign an extension. He had the relationship with Ozzie. No doubt there was some tampering going on there.

 

As for Sweeney and De Lo Santos? Who cares? They weren't going to help the Sox win. At the time Swisher was signed to a team friendly contract if he had the production he had in Oakland and NY.

 

KW trading prospects for the most part worked out. If he had hung on to them, the team would have been a lot worse off.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

I certainly hope he is extended right away if they trade for Samardzija. It'll be interesting to see what happens this week.

 

I wouldn't expect it to be "right away". Even Garcia took a bit as I remember it.

[southsider2k5]

The White Sox might have won the WS in 2003 if they didn't do the Koch/Foulke trade. The Durham trade was ridiculous. The Sox picked up all his money except the pro-rated minimum so Beane would give them the great Jon Adkins.

 

As for the Swisher trade, if that thread was ever dug up, most here loved it, and other than Gio Gonzalez, the prospects weren't much.

 

That deal was more a misread of what was thought to be a chance in draft pick compensation. Everyone thought it was going away. It didn't.

[caulfield12]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015...p-10-prospects/

 

The A's have their top two prospects as SS's despite trading Russell away to the Cubs.

 

The problem is there's zero chance that we get Samardzija and one of those guys for Ramirez and Semien.

 

It would have to be something like JS + SS prospect for Ramirez, Semien, Montas and one other smaller piece.

 

 

Still not seeing exactly how that's going to help for 2015. Or perhaps they'd ask for Ramirez, Montas and Hawkins if they're really committed to rebuilding for the next year or so.

[Whisox05]

But of course, that makes no sense for the White Sox, even if we get back a "High level prospect" in return, because we're trading for a "win now" pitcher on a 1 year deal and then leaving ourselves with a gaping hole at shortstop with literally no one ready to fill it.

 

No one can tell me that having either Semien, Sanchez, Tim Anderson, or Saladino as our #1 starting shortstop in ST next year looks like a competitive, could win the central division roster. Ditto any "SS Prospect" Beane is willing to give up - if he had one ready he wouldn't trade or Alexei. That would leave the White Sox deciding whether to spend money on Jed Lowrie, Stephen Drew, or Asdrubal Cabrera to fill that SS hole.

 

In other words, we'd commit $10 mil next year to JS, another $5-$10 mil next year to a veteran shortstop, we'd upgrade the rotation but we'd downgrade the offense and the defense while giving up a year of team control for the key piece. That could make sense for an 87 win team again, but we're right back into "Why are we doing this" territory to me without an unreasonable, unexpected, long-term discount on the pitcher.

 

Stephen drew is the only one still viewed as a ss. Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera are viewed as second baseman more now.

Edited December 8, 2014 by WhiteSoxLifer

[ptatc]

But of course, that makes no sense for the White Sox, even if we get back a "High level prospect" in return, because we're trading for a "win now" pitcher on a 1 year deal and then leaving ourselves with a gaping hole at shortstop with literally no one ready to fill it.

 

No one can tell me that having either Semien, Sanchez, Tim Anderson, or Saladino as our #1 starting shortstop in ST next year looks like a competitive, could win the central division roster. Ditto any "SS Prospect" Beane is willing to give up - if he had one ready he wouldn't trade or Alexei. That would leave the White Sox deciding whether to spend money on Jed Lowrie, Stephen Drew, or Asdrubal Cabrera to fill that SS hole.

 

In other words, we'd commit $10 mil next year to JS, another $5-$10 mil next year to a veteran shortstop, we'd upgrade the rotation but we'd downgrade the offense and the defense while giving up a year of team control for the key piece. That could make sense for an 87 win team again, but we're right back into "Why are we doing this" territory to me without an unreasonable, unexpected, long-term discount on the pitcher.

I could see it as one more year of a guy they would plan on getting next year. Hahn is using the rental year to convince him to sign in the offseason. So it isn't guaranteed he will sign but a calculated risk. This is all predicated on the fact that Hahn is convinced the one of the prospects can handle SS defensively at the MLB level or he is working a deal with one of the vets.

The reason to do it is get another top prospect from the A's system.

[Whisox05]

Some who've spoken with Oakland re: Samardzija don't expect the A's to grant a negotiating window to any interested team.

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/541978259609505794

[Eminor3rd]

I can't come up with parameters of any deal that makes sense for the White Sox to my eyes unless Samardzija gives the White Sox a large hometown discount that he wouldn't give the Cubs. Otherwise, moving anyone of even minor value from the White Sox's system for Samardzija seems silly to me and a much worse option than going and spending that huge, 9 figure money on someone like Shields or Scherzer.

 

This is what I think, too. I just can't see this deal happening without it being nonsensical for one of the two sides. Either we give up way too much for a short term gain, or the A's take way too little for a good #2 starter.

[ptatc]

This is what I think, too. I just can't see this deal happening without it being nonsensical for one of the two sides. Either we give up way too much for a short term gain, or the A's take way too little for a good #2 starter.

Is there a scenario where Beane "gets something rather than loses him for nothing at the end of the year" and acquires another pitcher by another means?

[southsider2k5]

Some who've spoken with Oakland re: Samardzija don't expect the A's to grant a negotiating window to any interested team.

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/541978259609505794

 

Which should function to keep return down

[Y2Jimmy0]

Some who've spoken with Oakland re: Samardzija don't expect the A's to grant a negotiating window to any interested team.

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/541978259609505794

 

 

I'd rather not have the negotiating window. The price will be less for a 1 year rental.

[Harry Chappas]

The White Sox will know before the trade whether they can lock him up or not.

 

Samardzija has all kinds of links to Chicago which I am sure the White Sox are aware of.

 

I think in the end he hated being part of a rebuild at Wrigely and that was as big a reason as any for not signing long term.

[Real]

why wouldn't oakland allow a negotiation window? i just woke up, so rational thinking hasn't kicked in yet

 

wouldn't this up the value to their team by netting them more/better players in return?

[Eminor3rd]

Is there a scenario where Beane "gets something rather than loses him for nothing at the end of the year" and acquires another pitcher by another means?

 

Yeah, I think that's what he'll probably do regardless. But when you look at our system, it seems like it's either Anderson or an underpay, IMO.