Dodgers & Reds trade (Kemp, Puig, & Wood to CIN, Bailey, Josiah Gray & Jeter Downs to LA)

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, fathom said:

of course, it feels like they're the only organization in baseball that would have not made any changes after they were so bad in so many different categories

I find it crazy that Steverson & Sparks are both still here given the struggles of most of our young hitters.

[GreenSox]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I find it crazy that Steverson & Sparks are both still here given the struggles of most of our young hitters.

The pitching didn't exactly shine either.  

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, GreenSox said:

The pitching didn't exactly shine either.  

I don’t disagree, but Cooper at least has a track record of success.  I do worry the game may be passing him by a bit.

[ChiSox59]

I haven’t read this thread, but I just don’t understand this deal from the Reds end. They definitely improve for next season, but they’re still bad. Gave up prospects and added salary. All assets they acquire are expiring. It’s a bad deal that really helps the Dodgers. 

I feel like Soxtalk would be in meltdown if the Sox did this deal.

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I haven’t read this thread, but I just don’t understand this deal from the Reds end. They definitely improve for next season, but they’re still bad. Gave up prospects and added salary. All assets they acquire are expiring. It’s a bad deal that really helps the Dodgers. 

I feel like Soxtalk would be in meltdown if the Sox did this deal.

Reds are going to make some more moves it appears, as they're going to try to win. I don't think it's the right move, but they have some talent on that roster. The NL Central is absolutely loaded.

[Jack Parkman]

I honestly don't think either of these guys want a long term deal. They both bet on their talent to get them to this point, so why wouldn't they go for a 5 year deal with opt outs after year 3 and 4 and enter the FA market again at age 30 or 31? At that point they could get a retirement contract that takes them to age 38+ and be set for life. The only thing a long term deal does for them at this young of an age is cost them money. If they believe in themselves, there is zero reason to want a long term deal. The only reason to do that is if they really don't care about baseball either way. To me, wanting a long term deal is a bit of  a red flag. They could sign a 5/180-200 deal and be set for life anyway, so why would they cost themselves money? 

A-Rod's deal was a mistake for a player that young. I think the players and agents have learned from it. 

Edited December 22, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[ptatc]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I honestly don't think either of these guys want a long term deal. They both bet on their talent to get them to this point, so why wouldn't they go for a 5 year deal with opt outs after year 3 and 4 and enter the FA market again at age 30 or 31. At that point they could get a retirement contract that takes them to age 38+ and be set for life. The only thing a long term deal does for them at this young of an age is cost them money. 

One word: injury.  A 10 year deal with player opt outs gives a guarantee if injuries occur but allow them to get a better deal if they career goes well.

[bmags]

17 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

The pitching didn't exactly shine either.  

Really enjoy watch every pitchers stuff diminish upon promotion while still having poor control.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I honestly don't think either of these guys want a long term deal. They both bet on their talent to get them to this point, so why wouldn't they go for a 5 year deal with opt outs after year 3 and 4 and enter the FA market again at age 30 or 31? At that point they could get a retirement contract that takes them to age 38+ and be set for life. The only thing a long term deal does for them at this young of an age is cost them money. If they believe in themselves, there is zero reason to want a long term deal. The only reason to do that is if they really don't care about baseball either way. To me, wanting a long term deal is a bit of  a red flag. They could sign a 5/180-200 deal and be set for life anyway, so why would they cost themselves money? 

A-Rod's deal was a mistake for a player that young. I think the players and agents have learned from it. 

The lesson from A rods deal is you can take biggest deal and if it fails you can just get traded to a competitive team anyway.

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Really enjoy watch every pitchers stuff diminish upon promotion while still having poor control.

Coop will break 'em

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I haven’t read this thread, but I just don’t understand this deal from the Reds end. They definitely improve for next season, but they’re still bad. Gave up prospects and added salary. All assets they acquire are expiring. It’s a bad deal that really helps the Dodgers. 

I feel like Soxtalk would be in meltdown if the Sox did this deal.

I concur, if we had made this move in the Reds situation I would be pissed.

[beautox]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

All the rumors said they were against doing a crazy long term contract with him.  This doesn’t change that in the slightest IMO.  I still think Kluber is their more likely target.

I think they go after Realmuto and Kluber and call it an offseason.

[caulfield12]

Greg would like this move if he was a Reds’ fan.

The problem is we’re so locked in on whales right now, we’ve totally forgotten how to identify good values in the Tier B/C players we usually go for.

And, of course, have no reason so far to trust that Hahn will get it done correctly.

In the past 15 years, we only managed it in 2004-05 and then leading into the 2008 season with Danks/Floyd/Quentin/Alexei.  Of course, the two big players from that era that we’re going to lead to sustained success, Beckham and Viciedo, flopped.

 

Even if we DO actually make the right smaller moves, it’s going to take a couple of years for the fans to buy back in and start to believe again.  The only thing that gives them instant credibility is signing Machado or Arenado.  Doubt even Rendon gets that done.

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I honestly don't think either of these guys want a long term deal. They both bet on their talent to get them to this point, so why wouldn't they go for a 5 year deal with opt outs after year 3 and 4 and enter the FA market again at age 30 or 31? At that point they could get a retirement contract that takes them to age 38+ and be set for life. The only thing a long term deal does for them at this young of an age is cost them money. If they believe in themselves, there is zero reason to want a long term deal. The only reason to do that is if they really don't care about baseball either way. To me, wanting a long term deal is a bit of  a red flag. They could sign a 5/180-200 deal and be set for life anyway, so why would they cost themselves money? 

A-Rod's deal was a mistake for a player that young. I think the players and agents have learned from it. 

What in the world are you talking about?

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What in the world are you talking about?

The injury point is a fair one, but if you're going to offer opt-outs the deal has to be backloaded and if they opt in that means you have a Jason Heyward type albatross for the next 5-7 seasons. 

Edited December 22, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[timbo8]

I don’t why the Indians are getting rid of kluber 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, scotty22hotty said:

here's the trade we were all promised. unlike others I see this as a huge win for the reds. they got 3 lottery tickets to dump at the deadline plus got rid of Homer and his $28m due.
I've been wrong about everything this off-season but Harper to the dodgers finally seems like a lock now lol

I was wondering when someone would offer up the most logical explanation from the Reds side. There's no way they are looking to compete in 2019. Maybe they aren't quite ready to dump their good player and instead got some guys who they can flip. It differs from the way the Sox did it in that respect since after all our major pieces were gone all we did was sign relievers and hope some AAAA talent might all of a sudden become something which hasn't worked. Only a handful on this board wanted the Sox to try to get some better assets to flip last year.

This might not work for the Reds and they really should try to move Votto who isn't getting any younger. Yes it's a strange plan if that's the case so who knows .

[caulfield12]

Let’s be honest. 

If Kopech, Moncada and Giolito succeeded, we likely wouldn’t even be having this conversation.   The strategy always called for bringing in a “proven winner” Jon Lester type to anchor the rotation, but never a whale.

In some ways, instead of trusting the process, it’s a classic panic-induced move.

It’s probably why neither of those guys sign, ultimately.  

Righfully so, it’s up to our current roster, Jimenez, Cease, Robert and Madrigal (Collins, to a lesser extent) to prove they can live up to the scouting reports.

Bringing in Machado just obscures how offtrack things are for the rebuild, in terms of perception.

If the scouting/evaluation is off on most of our young talent, we will simply end up jettisoning a whale contract for 60-75 cents on the dollar.  Hahn and KW will be long gone.

In some ways, it’s better to let 2019 play out before making any huge long-term moves.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2018 by caulfield12

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Let’s be honest. 

If Kopech, Moncada and Giolito succeeded, we likely wouldn’t even be having this conversation.   The strategy always called for bringing in a “proven winner” Jon Lester type to anchor the rotation, but never a whale.

In some ways, instead of trusting the process, it’s a classic panic-induced move.

It’s probably why neither of those guys sign, ultimately.  

Righfully so, it’s up to our current roster, Jimenez, Cease, Robert and Madrigal (Collins, to a lesser extent) to prove they can live up to the scouting reports.

Bringing in Machado just obscures how offtrack things are for the rebuild, in terms of perception.

If the scouting/evaluation is off on most of our young talent, we will simply end up jettisoning a whale contract for 60-75 cents on the dollar.  Hahn and KW will be long gone.

In some ways, it’s better to let 2019 play out before making any huge long-term moves.

 

 

I disagree. When opportunities present themselves, you have to jump at them. This is the time for Hahn and co. to put up or shut up. Signing Machado or Harper would greatly take some of the pressure off these young prospects and help push the rebuild in the right direction.

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I disagree. When opportunities present themselves, you have to jump at them. This is the time for Hahn and co. to put up or shut up. Signing Machado or Harper would greatly take some of the pressure off these young prospects and help push the rebuild in the right direction.

If you’re wrong on most other aspects of the rebuild, then you are simply going to be trading your 28 year-old superstar in his prime and getting back another version of Soriano or Cano, but now playing on a cellar dwelling team.

(Soriano put up a 2.3 fWAR average for two seasons in Texas after a 5.1 in NY in 2003, but really took off again with the Nationals and Cubs.)

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

30 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The injury point is a fair one, but if you're going to offer opt-outs the deal has to be backloaded and if they opt in that means you have a Jason Heyward type albatross for the next 5-7 seasons. 

A fair point ? It's the only point. There's no reason to leave a ton of money on the table. It's not a matter of $150-200M setting them up for life anyway. It's grab as much as you can when you can. A $300+M contract is GUARANTEED while having a healthy enough body to bet on yourself 4 years down the road isn't .

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

A fair point ? It's the only point. There's no reason to leave a ton of money on the table. It's not a matter of $150-200M setting them up for life anyway. It's grab as much as you can when you can. A $300+M contract is GUARANTEED while having a healthy enough body to bet on yourself 4 years down the road isn't .

Especially when Harper struggles to stay healthy and Machado has a history of knee problems.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Especially when Harper struggles to stay healthy and Machado has a history of knee problems.

And you can bet your ass both their agents will be telling them "Take the money kid" because they know a healthy future is not guaranteed.
 

[caulfield12]

38 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I disagree. When opportunities present themselves, you have to jump at them. This is the time for Hahn and co. to put up or shut up. Signing Machado or Harper would greatly take some of the pressure off these young prospects and help push the rebuild in the right direction.

Then wouldn’t it have been smarter to sign Ohtani for pennies on the dollar (of course, that would also mean never having made the deal for Robert)?

He was worth 2.8 fWAR in just 367 plate appearances...not to mention he could serve as a closer as well.

Harper was worth only 3.5 in almost twice as many trips to the plate (697).

Edited December 22, 2018 by caulfield12

[GreenSox]

52 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Greg would like this move if he was a Reds’ fan.

The problem is we’re so locked in on whales right now, we’ve totally forgotten how to identify good values in the Tier B/C players we usually go for.

And, of course, have no reason so far to trust that Hahn will get it done correctly.

I

Hahn's best trade was Eaton #1.  He's gone that route only once since:  Davidson/Reed, which I still think was well intended and worth the risk.  Regardless, 50% leaves you a big winner.  So why did he stop?  Those are the kind of moves this team needs now, 5 years later.  They don't need guys past their prime (like Alonso).
Re the rebuild, he's already whiffed on 1 major pitching prospect and likely a 2nd; none of the others have proven that they are even mid-rotation guys.  There have been no whiffs on the position side yet, but no absolute hits either.  Hopefully we see real progress soon.