Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
bmags

PECOTA: 70-92

Recommended Posts

Just now, cjgalloway said:

That's about what I'd expect assuming our team stays the same as it is now (No Machado)

Yeah, I think underrated his at this point this still isn’t a very deep team, especially pitching.    The help is still too far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone actually put any value in PECOTA? Just seems like it is a highly inaccurate model, and the further a team roster is away from veteran-laden, the less accurate it is.

Not meant as a slight to the poster, honestly wondering if people think there's any accuracy or meaning to this model's projections. For me, the answer is no.

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dunno, with Eloy’s arrival and Moncada’s continued development I expect to see a more consistent offense this season, and with a very good bullpen we will have a shot at a lot of close games. I think it’s at least 3-7 games over that total. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Does anyone actually put any value in PECOTA? Just seems like it is a highly inaccurate model, and the further a team roster is away from veteran-laden, the less accurate it is.

Not meant as a slight to the poster, honestly wondering if people think there's any accuracy or meaning to this model's projections. For me, the answer is no.

 

I think it's a good signal of depth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The improved bullpen should add about 5 wins from last year. Eloy should add a few wins as well. The (hopeful) improvement of  Moncada, along with some other minor additions adds a couple wins. Giotito can't be worse, so there's an extra win or two. 

Without Machado:  12 extra wins from last year (74-88)

With Machado:  17 extra wins from last year (79-83)

If we add another starting pitcher or another decent piece on top of Machado, we could be looking at somewhere around the 80 to 84 win range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Does anyone actually put any value in PECOTA? Just seems like it is a highly inaccurate model, and the further a team roster is away from veteran-laden, the less accurate it is.

Not meant as a slight to the poster, honestly wondering if people think there's any accuracy or meaning to this model's projections. For me, the answer is no.

 

Back in 2015 I jumped through hoop after hoop to convince myself of why we would be so much better than those projections, and then it turned out PECOTA was absolutely right on.

What PECOTA is doing is it is saying "Here's a rough middle ground. Some young guys perform, some young guys struggle, as is normal for young guys with limited track records". It's also saying "there will be some injuries that affect performance" and "There will be some things you don't expect". 

It is absolutely possible to outperform it, but that means you are doing something right - getting better player development than expected or players are healthier than expected. It is also possible to underperform it if you do the opposite. If you think you're going to be dramatically better than it, the answer can't be something it would take into account - like the "our bullpen is really good" lines above, unless the bullpen is really good because of guys who arrive and light the world on fire. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I dunno, with Eloy’s arrival and Moncada’s continued development I expect to see a more consistent offense this season, and with a very good bullpen we will have a shot at a lot of close games. I think it’s at least 3-7 games over that total. 

They don't project Moncada to improve much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

70 is a fair number unless we get a whale.  The SP scares me this year, but we should see a lot of improvements across the board.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That is one bad season. I know you don't want to hear it from me, but this is not healthy to keep piling up miserable records like this. Lot of pressure on a handful of young guys to turn this around in coming years unless we hit the jackpot the next week or so with free agency.

Edited by greg775

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, ptatc said:

They don't project Moncada to improve much.

PECOTA is traditionally EXTREMELY pessimistic/conservative.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Back in 2015 I jumped through hoop after hoop to convince myself of why we would be so much better than those projections, and then it turned out PECOTA was absolutely right on.

What PECOTA is doing is it is saying "Here's a rough middle ground. Some young guys perform, some young guys struggle, as is normal for young guys with limited track records". It's also saying "there will be some injuries that affect performance" and "There will be some things you don't expect". 

It is absolutely possible to outperform it, but that means you are doing something right - getting better player development than expected or players are healthier than expected. It is also possible to underperform it if you do the opposite. If you think you're going to be dramatically better than it, the answer can't be something it would take into account - like the "our bullpen is really good" lines above, unless the bullpen is really good because of guys who arrive and light the world on fire. 

Maybe I wasn't clear what I meant. I am not say 70 wins is right or wrong - in fact I think it's close. It's that by nature, any statistically-based system to evaluate a player or a team if that team is heavily populated with players having minimal MLB time is just not going to work well. It just can't know what it needs to know, good or bad, when it comes to players on that cusp. And this team will be loaded with guys on the cusp.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ptatc said:

They don't project Moncada to improve much.

Considering his young age and how much baseball he missed waiting to get here, I truly don’t understand why people don’t project him to improve. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Considering his young age and how much baseball he missed waiting to get here, I truly don’t understand why people don’t project him to improve. 

Because they can only go on his 1.5 seasons of MLB data, and that projection is basically what he's done since being called up. Projections systems are notoriously pessimistic about young players that have struggled. They take them at face value and don't project them to ever get any better. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Maybe I wasn't clear what I meant. I am not say 70 wins is right or wrong - in fact I think it's close. It's that by nature, any statistically-based system to evaluate a player or a team if that team is heavily populated with players having minimal MLB time is just not going to work well. It just can't know what it needs to know, good or bad, when it comes to players on that cusp. And this team will be loaded with guys on the cusp.

 

It's interesting for the whole league though, not just the white sox. Like it's not surprising at all to me that mets ended up so well, they have an incredible amount of redundancy in position players with at least league average guys, and it showed up that way. I see many scenarios they don't perform well, but a good way to the playoffs has been not ending up having to play charlie tilson and adam engel in the same outfield for a month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Does anyone actually put any value in PECOTA? Just seems like it is a highly inaccurate model, and the further a team roster is away from veteran-laden, the less accurate it is.

Not meant as a slight to the poster, honestly wondering if people think there's any accuracy or meaning to this model's projections. For me, the answer is no.

 

100% agree.  These systems simply do not know how to project for young players with serious ability / tools but a lack of results.  As we have seen in recent years, teams with developing young talent have greatly outperformed their PECOTA forecasts when those guys start to click.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Team sucks at the moment , 72 wins is generous.  NEED A CF.  NEED PROVEN STARTING PITCHING. NEED 3B.  NEED LF OR RF. Need depth for injuries / slow or failed development 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, OmarComing25 said:

PECOTA has the Cubs at 82-80... Really?

Questionable bullpen. Questionable SP.  Bad depth.  Their team isn't as great as it was 3 years ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I dunno, with Eloy’s arrival and Moncada’s continued development I expect to see a more consistent offense this season, and with a very good bullpen we will have a shot at a lot of close games. I think it’s at least 3-7 games over that total. 

I’m in total agreement with you in regards to the offense being more consistent with the arrival of Eloy and guys like Moncada and Anderson taking the next steps in their development. They also turned the bullpen into a major strength that shorten games for the young staff but I think they also improved the defense of the team with Alonso and Jay. 

If the team stays as it is, I’m thinking 75-77 wins which would be huge. If they land a Harper or Machado, I think they can play meaning games late in the regular season at the least .500 ball. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remember, folks, that projection is not prediction. 70-92 seems right for a bad team that did little to improve. That may change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, ptatc said:

They don't project Moncada to improve much.

Of course not, why would they? That doesn't mean he won't

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Considering his young age and how much baseball he missed waiting to get here, I truly don’t understand why people don’t project him to improve. 

PECOTA is purely numerical. Obviously, that fact isn't present in any numbers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×