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Jack Parkman

Moncada's ceiling

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I'm interested in what people think Moncada's ceiling is. 

Personally, it all depends on whether or not Ricky lets him run. Moncada is capable of 30-30, if not 35-35, but he never steals bases, which is confusing. 

I think the sky is the limit for him and he can eclipse everyone in the AL aside from Trout. I also think he's capable of 8+ WAR seasons. However, should he never steal bases, he's probably going to top out in the 5.5-7 WAR range. I think he could be even better as a hitter. When Moncada gets a hold of one, the ball flies off his bat. He crushes baseballs. I feel like he should be able to hit 40+ HR but he has this game power issue. So anyway, what say you? I understand not running Moncada during a lost season, but.....Will Ricky run him during a competitive season? Moncada does have a history of soft tissue injuries so maybe that's why he doesn't run. This is a guy who stole 40 bases at every minor league level. 

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I think he continues to refine his approach and adds more walks. I don't see him ever being a 40 plus sb guy. He's fast enough, but I don't think it's worth the punishment to his body. 

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2 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

I think he continues to refine his approach and adds more walks. I don't see him ever being a 40 plus sb guy. He's fast enough, but I don't think it's worth the punishment to his body. 

See that's what I was wondering. I think he should steal at least 20-25 bags though, but not more than that. 

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He's played 60% of a full season and accumulated 4 fWAR in those games. That's a pace for approximately 7-7.5 if he stayed healthy and people argue he can still be better than he is right now, and that's not just with stealing bags.

Moncada's absolute ceiling is one of the best players in the game. I dont think it's out of the question to see him put up some truly eye-popping seasons. 

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Consistency is more interesting to me than ceiling. Frankly I feel like anyone that can hit multiple 6 WAR season can hit an 8 WAR season just due to luck (opportunities). If he can show he is a consistent 5-6 WAR guy that's excellent and he will give him the opportunity to have special seasons consistently.

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29 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm interested in what people think Moncada's ceiling is. 

Personally, it all depends on whether or not Ricky lets him run. Moncada is capable of 30-30, if not 35-35, but he never steals bases, which is confusing. 

I think the sky is the limit for him and he can eclipse everyone in the AL aside from Trout. I also think he's capable of 8+ WAR seasons. However, should he never steal bases, he's probably going to top out in the 5.5-7 WAR range. I think he could be even better as a hitter. When Moncada gets a hold of one, the ball flies off his bat. He crushes baseballs. I feel like he should be able to hit 40+ HR but he has this game power issue. So anyway, what say you? I understand not running Moncada during a lost season, but.....Will Ricky run him during a competitive season? Moncada does have a history of soft tissue injuries so maybe that's why he doesn't run. This is a guy who stole 40 bases at every minor league level. 

Basically exactly what you said. He should be a consistent ~5 WAR player with a few ~7 WAR/40 HR seasons at his peak. His baserunning value is already pretty good despite the lack of steals, but if it goes up and the power increases, he could even turn in an 8-10 WAR season as his true ceiling

 

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What's really crazy to think about is that as high as his ceiling is, you could make a pretty good argument that Robert's is even higher. Imagine having 2 5+ WAR position players on the same team, plus a 5+ WAR pitcher in Giolito... 

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3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

What's really crazy to think about is that as high as his ceiling is, you could make a pretty good argument that Robert's is even higher. Imagine having 2 5+ WAR position players on the same team, plus a 5+ WAR pitcher in Giolito... 

Robert has a 50+ HR ceiling, something that you can't say about Moncada. Moncada has a better grasp of the strike zone(higher OBP) and will probably hit for more average. It will be interesting to see which player fWAR likes better when they're at their peak. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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2 minutes ago, Superstar Lamar said:

I think you guys are a little generous on his HR power.  I think he maxes out at 30.  I do think in the future though that he is going to take his OBP to the .400 range

If he didn't get injured, he would be on a 33 home run pace for this season though

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14 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Robert has a 50+ HR ceiling, something that you can't say about Moncada. Moncada has a better grasp of the strike zone(higher OBP) and will probably hit for more average. It will be interesting to see which player fWAR likes better when they're at their peak. 

I can't get down with saying Luis Robert has 50 homer potential, but a guy with best in baseball level exit velos doesn't. 

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7 minutes ago, Superstar Lamar said:

I think you guys are a little generous on his HR power.  I think he maxes out at 30.  I do think in the future though that he is going to take his OBP to the .400 range

30 homers is the new 20 in this era.

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Really depends on what kind of room he's in. 

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1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

What's really crazy to think about is that as high as his ceiling is, you could make a pretty good argument that Robert's is even higher. Imagine having 2 5+ WAR position players on the same team, plus a 5+ WAR pitcher in Giolito... 

And if Kopech returns and is back at 100%, mercy...

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1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

What's really crazy to think about is that as high as his ceiling is, you could make a pretty good argument that Robert's is even higher. Imagine having 2 5+ WAR position players on the same team, plus a 5+ WAR pitcher in Giolito... 

Not to mention Tim Anderson. He's probably at least a 3-4 WAR guy per season moving forward to. And Eloy will improve as well. Lots of good stuff.

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3 hours ago, mqr said:

I can't get down with saying Luis Robert has 50 homer potential, but a guy with best in baseball level exit velos doesn't. 

Moncada has a game power issue. His raw power is off the charts but it doesn't translate to games as well as Robert's does. I think Moncada has the ability to hit 40+ HR but idk if he ever gets there. He might have a lot of seasons in the 33-39 HR range but never actually hits 40. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 hour ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Not to mention Tim Anderson. He's probably at least a 3-4 WAR guy per season moving forward to. And Eloy will improve as well. Lots of good stuff.

What I am looking forward to with TA is him cutting down on boneheaded defensive plays. Lately he has made some spectacular plays look really easy.

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The one thing that does make me wonder how good Moncada will ultimately be if he actually enjoys playing and competing. There just seems to be times when he doesn't seem into it. Obviously, talent wise, he has few peers. 

Edited by Dick Allen

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14 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

What I am looking forward to with TA is him cutting down on boneheaded defensive plays. Lately he has made some spectacular plays look really easy.

He's got Alexei Ramirez syndrome. He'll have a screaming one-hopper far away from him headed to the gap and he'll make it look routine then the next play will be fairly routine and you're like "WHAT WAS THAT"

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19 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Moncada has a game power issue. His raw power is off the charts but it doesn't translate to games as well as Robert's does. I think Moncada has the ability to hit 40+ HR but idk if he ever gets there. He might have a lot of seasons in the 33-39 HR range but never actually hits 40. 

This is Caulfield level projecting, man.   

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4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The one thing that does make me wonder how good Moncada will ultimately be if he actually enjoys playing and competing. There just seems to be times when he doesn't seem into it. Obviously, talent wise, he has few peers. 

Anthony Rendon hates baseball but is elite at playing it. Even if Moncada is similar (and FWIW, I think he likes it and just shows emotion differently than other players), I don't think it's too big of a deal 

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3 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

If he didn't get injured, he would be on a 33 home run pace for this season though

I'm aware of that:

1.  I think he would fall a bit behind that pace as the season wore on resulting in a final total of about 30; and,

2.  While he may gain a bit more power with experience from an eye test, the ball situation will not be as optimal as this year so the total will be the same.

I think 30 is his best.  30 is very good

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Prime Robinson Cano. Perennial top 5 MVP candidate.  

.320/.380/.540 type lines.  

I don't think we'll ever see Moncada play 160 games a year like Cano did for all those seasons, but he can be a comparable player.

Its insane what cano did.  From 2007-2017, these were Cano's GP: 160, 159, 161, 160, 159, 161 ,160, 157, 156, 161, 150 

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26 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Prime Robinson Cano. Perennial top 5 MVP candidate.  

.320/.380/.540 type lines.  

I don't think we'll ever see Moncada play 160 games a year like Cano did for all those seasons, but he can be a comparable player.

Its insane what cano did.  From 2007-2017, these were Cano's GP: 160, 159, 161, 160, 159, 161 ,160, 157, 156, 161, 150 

I thought Anderson was going to be that kind of guy until this year. I suppose he still can be. 

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