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Sox Sign Cishek; 1 yr, $5.25 mil + option (6.75, 750k buyout)

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3 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I assume that you mean by giving up a run you mean that runs were not charged to him. I say this because another important stat is strand rate for a relief pitcher.

Let's say you come in with the bases loaded and no outs. You can give up a couple of  singles that score all 3 runners. That's not good but the runs are all charged to the guy who put those runners on base . If the reliever gets out of the inning with no further runs , he is not charged with any runs thus preserving his ERA but doing bad in the  runners stranded rate even though in that particular situation giving up 1 run or less is ideal. It's easier said than done.

 

2 hours ago, Lillian said:

Yes, of course the percentage of inherited runners, who scored is also very important. Last year, he allowed 33% of the 27 inherited runners to score. In that category, Bummer was better, allowing just 19% of the 36 inherited runners, to score. Cishek was better, in 2018, when he allowed 29% of the 59 inherited runners to score. I think we agree that he was overworked, the last couple of years, by Maddon.

Inherited runners are not much of a concern for closers, as they are usually brought in, to start the last inning. Thanks for suggesting that I cite those stats, as well.

If ya'll like strand rate, checkout RE24.

Basically, it measures how a pitcher changes the run expectancy and runs scored between entering and exiting.

For example, if you give up a run after entering with a man on 3rd and 1 out, that is penalized less than entering with a man on 1st and 2 outs, because RE24 takes into account what the expected runs scored of the offense would be.

It is still flawed - the expected runs that the model is based on only takes into account what bags are filled and how many outs there are. However, it addresses a problem with strand rate, which is that not all the scenarios of how a RP can enter the game are equal. Since strand rate is usually calculated from a pretty small sample size of outings, it is certainly possible that the degree of difficulty for those outings was demonstrably different.

Last year, Steve Cishek was pretty decent with a 6.31 RE24, 46th out of qualifying RPs. This was down from his 3 previous years of 9.24, 14.72, and 10.72.

FWIW, RE24 supports the perception that Bummer was a dominant fireman last year: he had an outstanding RE24 of 22.81, second best in the MLB only to Liam Hendrick's 22.89. 22.81 is also the 16th best score for a single season over the last 5 years.

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32 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

 

If ya'll like strand rate, checkout RE24.

Basically, it measures how a pitcher changes the run expectancy and runs scored between entering and exiting.

For example, if you give up a run after entering with a man on 3rd and 1 out, that is penalized less than entering with a man on 1st and 2 outs, because RE24 takes into account what the expected runs scored of the offense would be.

It is still flawed - the expected runs that the model is based on only takes into account what bags are filled and how many outs there are. However, it addresses a problem with strand rate, which is that not all the scenarios of how a RP can enter the game are equal. Since strand rate is usually calculated from a pretty small sample size of outings, it is certainly possible that the degree of difficulty for those outings was demonstrably different.

Last year, Steve Cishek was pretty decent with a 6.31 RE24, 46th out of qualifying RPs. This was down from his 3 previous years of 9.24, 14.72, and 10.72.

FWIW, RE24 supports the perception that Bummer was a dominant fireman last year: he had an outstanding RE24 of 22.81, second best in the MLB only to Liam Hendrick's 22.89. 22.81 is also the 16th best score for a single season over the last 5 years.

Thank you. That is very interesting and useful statistical data. I've never seen that. 

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52 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

 

If ya'll like strand rate, checkout RE24.

Basically, it measures how a pitcher changes the run expectancy and runs scored between entering and exiting.

For example, if you give up a run after entering with a man on 3rd and 1 out, that is penalized less than entering with a man on 1st and 2 outs, because RE24 takes into account what the expected runs scored of the offense would be.

It is still flawed - the expected runs that the model is based on only takes into account what bags are filled and how many outs there are. However, it addresses a problem with strand rate, which is that not all the scenarios of how a RP can enter the game are equal. Since strand rate is usually calculated from a pretty small sample size of outings, it is certainly possible that the degree of difficulty for those outings was demonstrably different.

Last year, Steve Cishek was pretty decent with a 6.31 RE24, 46th out of qualifying RPs. This was down from his 3 previous years of 9.24, 14.72, and 10.72.

FWIW, RE24 supports the perception that Bummer was a dominant fireman last year: he had an outstanding RE24 of 22.81, second best in the MLB only to Liam Hendrick's 22.89. 22.81 is also the 16th best score for a single season over the last 5 years.

Yes this what what I was hinting at when I used a bases loaded no outs situation in my example and said it was ideal to get out of that situation with only 1 or no runs scoring and I knew there was a stat about run expectancy but I couldn't recall what it was called.

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4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Yes this what what I was hinting at when I used a bases loaded no outs situation in my example and said it was ideal to get out of that situation with only 1 or no runs scoring and I knew there was a stat about run expectancy but I couldn't recall what it was called.

Really? Personally I find "run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states" to be a very catchy name. Really rolls off the tongue. 😛

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3 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Really? Personally I find "run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states" to be a very catchy name. Really rolls off the tongue. 😛

At least this kind of stat doesn't make my eyes glaze up and my head feel foggy, Hell I even took a stab at using sOPS+ recently.

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6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Cue "baseball is getting to be no fun" if you need a quantitative analysis degree from MIT or Cal Tech to follow the sport...

Your point is well taken. Nevertheless, for those who haven't watched a given team, or player, on a daily basis, this kind of data can be very useful. Our eyes tell us that Bummer was terrific, last season and we don't really need to examine all of the stats to recognise that fact. However, not having had the benefit of seeing Cishek pitch, very much, these stats are helpful in at least determining whether, or not, we should be pleased about his acquisition. 

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I like it as a low risk signing with upside but I would still prefer to get another good pen arm. 

Cishek could be good but last year he was quite lucky (2.95 era, 4.5 fip) and the arrows seem to be pointin down a bit. Steamer projects him for a 4.7 era and 0 war, I think he will be better than that but still he is more likely a high 3s era guy.

That still helps the pen but I would like to get another back end arm, sign or trade.

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2 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

I like it as a low risk signing with upside but I would still prefer to get another good pen arm. 

Cishek could be good but last year he was quite lucky (2.95 era, 4.5 fip) and the arrows seem to be pointin down a bit. Steamer projects him for a 4.7 era and 0 war, I think he will be better than that but still he is more likely a high 3s era guy.

That still helps the pen but I would like to get another back end arm, sign or trade.

He has out performed his FIP almost his whole career because he's a weak contact pitcher.

I like the signing a lot, I did want them to get a K guy in addition to Cishek though.  Hopefully we can get something like that out of the minors or some bounceback signing. 

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On 1/7/2020 at 1:15 PM, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Trade for Edwin Diaz and then this team will be ready to go to war.

^ this and sign Zobrist

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Glad we've signed a potential eighth inning guy.

Not to beat the dead horse, but Ricky has some pieces to work with this year. I hope Hahn pulls the trigger quickly and fires Ricky and/or Coop if it is warranted early. Look ... our team is used to LOSING. But there's no reason to come out losing this season and being 10 back in mid May with all these additions. All positions have good bodies to fill them. As much as I want an Avi in RF, I can't argue that our new 24 year old is a possible sensation out there. We got hitting additions; we got pitching additions.

I think Ricky is a nice representative of our franchise and I love the fact he's a GREAT communicator in more than one language. And I love Coop in theory. But it's time to WIN and if our pitching blows and our W/L sucks early, please fire Ricky.

As far as this post ... again, Hahn looks like the real deal. I despised the tank job/rebuild but on paper we should be ready to rock a bit. No more laughingstocks of the AL. Just.Win.Please.

Edited by greg775
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1 hour ago, greg775 said:

Glad we've signed a potential eighth inning guy.

Not to beat the dead horse, but Ricky has some pieces to work with this year. I hope Hahn pulls the trigger quickly and fires Ricky and/or Coop if it is warranted early. Look ... our team is used to LOSING. But there's no reason to come out losing this season and being 10 back in mid May with all these additions. All positions have good bodies to fill them. As much as I want an Avi in RF, I can't argue that our new 24 year old is a possible sensation out there. We got hitting additions; we got pitching additions.

I think Ricky is a nice representative of our franchise and I love the fact he's a GREAT communicator in more than one language. And I love Coop in theory. But it's time to WIN and if our pitching blows and our W/L sucks early, please fire Ricky.

As far as this post ... again, Hahn looks like the real deal. I despised the tank job/rebuild but on paper we should be ready to rock a bit. No more laughingstocks of the AL. Just.Win.Please.

The rebuild must be coming together if Greg is posting comments I can get behind.

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5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Covey might be back in AAA

He absolutely will be

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1 hour ago, cjgalloway said:

A lot of those names would be realistic and cheap options...

Flores (rather give Mendick a shot), Pillar, Knitzer and Strop all interest me a lot.

Kintzler was decent for the Twins as well.   Just not sure of the asking price at this point.   Can’t be too onerous.

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3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Kintzler was decent for the Twins as well.   Just not sure of the asking price at this point.   Can’t be too onerous.

He’s a good example.  I hope Hahn is still waiting out some of the remaining reliever free agents if he can get them at a bargain price, the closer we get to Spring Training.

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4 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

He’s a good example.  I hope Hahn is still waiting out some of the remaining reliever free agents if he can get them at a bargain price, the closer we get to Spring Training.

Moan4Yoan hoping Hahn goes dumpster diving??? This offseason really has had everything.

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