QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 02:56 PM)
The part where we're not competitive in 2018 and if we can find a DH who can put up 1.5 WAR in 2019 out of several minimum contract players who could very possibly do that, this would be a less than efficient use of our resources.
This is, to me, the "Stay the course" part of the game. It's hard. Even Theo got seduced. Stay the course, play the kids for the entire year, and I promise, next offseason, everyone out there who someone wants to sign to fill a hole, I'm going to say "Let's do this!". We have 1 more year of doing this right.
This is an incredibly simplistic view of what is occurring right now on the market.
You have an outstanding player who is being undervalued due to a number of reasons, many of which are likely unique to this free agency period. Yes, I get that he is 30, and that he brings no value from the defensive side of the ball. And yes, I agree that players hitting FA around his age are likely to see length of deals decrease as baseball GMs realize that many players on the wrong side of 30, or probably more fairly, as they approach 35, are seeing a sharp decline in performance, particularly in a non-PED environment.
That being said, several large market teams are sitting out on premier FAs this year due to next year FA class, as well as to reset their luxury tax penalties. Additionally, many other teams simply are accepting that rebuilds are necessary and therefore, it makes no sense to sign expensive veterans. Finally, you have a few teams like the Giants and Blue Jays who feel like they are approaching the end of their windows, and thus, have no interest in long-term deals.
Then you have the White Sox and Phillies who have already begun rebuilds, have money, but are a little hesitant to go crazy in FA at the moment because they are not yet competitive enough to justify the expendititure at this stage.
I get it.
However, next year’s FA period will be ultra-competitive. Many large market teams, as well as some others that have been arranging their payrolls for YEARS for an opportunity to bid on a small handful of players will be all outbidding themselves. Machado and Harper will be the big prizes, and due to that competitiveness, I believe they will be paid significantly more than even reasonable projections suggest they should. Then there will be guys like Donaldson, who will happily take other significantly large deals because they will be consolation prizes.
The point of this is that even though a player may not align perfectly with our trajectory for winning, that doesn’t mean we should be so rigid as to not consider acquiring him, should other factors outweigh the timing. Simply because we have the cash does not mean we will have the ability to acquire the assets in FA that we need, when we need them, as if we are purchasing them from Amazon. Doing so will likely result in out of market deals that could very likely be worse than had we simply taken the opportunities in the market as they presented themselves.
I think Martinez may be one such opportunity.