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Look at Ray Ray Run

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Everything posted by Look at Ray Ray Run

  1. Antonacci is the most exciting revelation of spring by far imo. I would give him the job over meidroth. The questions he had were all around getting to power with + EV's which he's now shown he can do. I might be getting crazy, but his path reminds me so much of Jose Ramirez with the difference being Antonacci never had the down year. Elite contact and zone rates, but questions on growing into power. We obviously know what happened when he did. Spring doesnt matter for almost anything, but for EV's it's very meaningful. 109.5 and 107.1 this spring. Also another ball at 101. It's the peak that matters though.
  2. Wade is a pretty good hitter. He was banged up last year and really bad, but if you put him in good match ups hes consistently been 15%+ better than the league. Id take wade over tendi 10 times out of 10 for the DH slot. He's on the wrong side of 30 and last year he was so bad teams bailed.
  3. Yeah, he shouldn't be hitting anywhere but 8th or 9th, but saw the Sox say he'd be at the top of the order.
  4. I think ive joined the fan club. The EV's make him different for me than Chase.
  5. Takeaways. 1. People who Getz hired and gave expanded roles and opportunities too, like him and believe in him. Very surprising! 2. The Sox still haven't expanded their department head counts. 3. Autonomy and freedom are what Getz is selling new leaders. (I'm a fan of this) resources aren't comparable to other markets. 4. Getz would compare the Sox to the Rays or Guardians. Lots of roster churn. Pretty s%*# fan experience but again, still very limited department size. 5. The proofs of concept or wins cited were someone else's 1st round pick being good, a pitcher being claimed and converted into something viable (something Sox have done a few times over last decade+), and two guys who have never played in the MLB. Anecdotal was polite.
  6. He lacked command in college.
  7. I have Grant Taylor leading the White Sox in pitching WAR, for whatever that is worth. I have the bullpen basically out valuing the rotation in total WAR. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox come in under my 8 projection. I think they have the worst staff in baseball, and the worst staff usually comes in around the 5-7 range in total WAR. On the positional side, I have Colson at 3.1 projected WAR, which is definitely on the high side compared to other public-facing valuations but I diminished the weights placed on his performance during his back injury which, I also think, slightly inflated his expected games played but I don't think that production was an indicator of his skill set. Coming in second was Teel at 2.6 and third was actually Acuna at 2.1 (but all of this is tied to his defense and base running as I have him with an 82 wRC+). Murakami has a wide range, but his 50th percentile outcome came in at 1.5 with an above average bat but below average defense and base running. My numbers are pretty low on Meidroth (.8) and Vargas (1.1).
  8. Insult? I made a one line post directed at nobody. Get a grip, pal.
  9. 67 wins would be around 21 fWAR, but the range would really be between about 19 fWAR and 23 fWAR is reasonable for 67 wins. I have this pitching staff around 8 fWAR and the offense around 13 fWAR.
  10. There's no regression occurring YoY with a differnet collection of people. That's not how statistics work. The Pythagorean model in baseball also isnt some advanced model. It's a basic model that calculates expected wins based on run differential. It's not meant to be a true barometer of performance. Being optimistic in sports has absolutely nothing to do with how you treat people and others. Youre not a good person just because youre optimistically delusional. The fact that you think your positivity om soxtalk is nurturing these players is bordering on crazy talk. 67 wins feels about right.
  11. Yeah, I am a believer in Acuna the CF'er. That said, I'm not sure i believe he's Luis Robert good out there, yet. So still probably pretty close but the ceiling with those games played is so much higher.
  12. Acuna replaces Robert, so it's basically a wash there.
  13. The Marlins position group last year was 18th and their pitching 25th. It would be a very large leap forward for the White Sox position player group to get up into that area this year. The real issue is the White Sox weren't just worse offensively, but they were much worse defensively and on the bases. So say they make up the 8-10 points in wRC+ with full season of some better production in April/May, they'd also need to make a large jump forward defensively and on the bases. I wouldn't say it's impossible, but it's why that 79 win barometer feels pretty out of reach with the current roster.
  14. 1. James Fegan works with the White Sox, and his career literally benefits from team interest. Not saying he's lying, but he's certainly bias as he swims through the White Sox sea of shitty propaganda. 2. No idea what that means. 3. Is that what you're doing here? Instilling confidence in young players by speaking nice about them on an internet message board? Interesting concept. Fathom should be ashamed of himself for all that negativity he's voodoo'ed into players heads with his posts! 4. I'm not limiting anything. Sox have a bottom 4 projection in baseball, and probably a 1% chance or less of being .500.
  15. To be clear, the Sox did hate Sosa for all intents and purposes. I agree though, kelenic is washed and shouldn't be taking anything from anyone. I would also take Baldwin over him, but Baldwin needs to get a good bit better out there before I call him an actual outfieldee
  16. Spring training outcomes making people crazy.
  17. 109.5 MPH is 1.4 MPH harder than any ball Meidroth has hit as a pro. Pretty crazy. I was just being a dick but figured it was possible. Had to check.
  18. Antonacci just showed more power in one swing than Meidroth has ever!
  19. I mean, I know it's a streaming site but it has MLB in the url so how wrong are we for using it??? https://mlbwebcast.com/
  20. Teel is much better than Quero in my opinion. There are only 4 guys in baseball with a slower bat than Quero, and while some of those guys are good (Kwan!), they are also unicorns. Ironically, Meidroth is one of the guys that has a slower bat, and it's a big reason I don't have much faith in either of those guys. At least Quero understands his bat speed and EV's will prevent him from being an impact bat and is working on it, but I'm skeptical of the add potential there given his approach.
  21. Their schedule says otherwise, although they at least have quite a few out of conference games against tough opponents. The point being that the general numbers produced this year should be huge, as his level of competition is lesser than that of the players in the three conferences that are better.
  22. Me neither. More money in the conference today than in the past for baseball, but it's still not the ACC or SEC or even the Big 12.
  23. Has a big 10 player ever been selected #1? Question i had today.
  24. Interesting as ive heard this expressed from the other side. This was leaked to the PA by the other side. I tend to believe what im hearing makes more sense. PA would have replaced Clark long ago

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