Your Off Season Plan

[GreenSox]

Mine plan would be to stockpile as much pitching as possible...and be on the alert for a CF and SS opportunities.

 

Be careful with Rule 5 - use it if you can for bullpen, but there is frequently a crunch with rebuilding teams.

Edited November 2, 2017 by GreenSox

[greg775]

Greg, the issue is Avisail and Abreu's contracts. THey each have two years left. What Hahn needs to figure out is whether they should extend or trade either player. The worst case scenario would be to do nothing in this instance. My guess is that they try and trade Garcia this winter and lock up Abreu to a 4 year extension.

That makes sense. I would think an NL team would want Avi as he's getting a bit better defensively and can hit. If we dump Avi, I hope our longterm RF replacement is well above average arm and glove. I'm telling you guys, defense and bullpens are BIG in trying to win multiple WS titles. If u butcher it defensively and have a bad pen, forget how well you can hit.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Sign C Rene Rivera - 1 yr/$6.5M

Sign SP Clay Buchholz - 1 yr/$9M (+1 team option year/buyout)

Sign 1B Yonder Alonso - 2 yr/$26M

Sign RP Neftali Feliz - 1 yr/$4M

Sign RP Brandon Kintzler - 2 yr/$10M

Sign RP Brandon Morrow - 3 yr/$24M

Sign RP Ian Krol - 1 yr/$5M (+ 2 team option years/buyout)

 

I don't see any significant trades happening. Doubt Abreu or Avi get moved, and no one else is worth giving up on.

 

Almost all 7 of these guys are dudes you sign and then hope to flip. Krol is more of a project piece that you hope to mold. He's only 26 and was actually very solid in 2016. Needs to work on control.

 

I would love for us to grab a big bullpen arms like Holland, Davis, or McGee, to flip at the deadline, but I can see the contending teams overpaying for all those guys and the Sox just going more for the B-tier and reclamation arms to try to sell high on.

 

But bottom line, all these guys (except for Rivera and Krol, and maybe Morrow due to years of control), are signings you make with the sole intention of dumping by July.

[hi8is]

Continue to develop the prospects that make up the top farm system in baseball and maybe bring in a flier starter like Bucholz or Pineda for cheap and hope to flip them by August

 

Other than that, call up prospects when ready, develop, and get ready to spend BIG next fall on names like Machado, Kimbrel/Miller, Cody Allen/Kelvin Herrera, and little less on a guy like Carter Capps

 

'19 Rotation: Kopech, Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Hansen

'19 Lineup: SS Anderson, 2B Moncada, 3B Machado, 1B Abreu, LF Jimenez, RF Garcia, DH Delmonico, C Collins, CF Leury

'19 Pen: Kimbrel/Miller, Allen/Herrera, Capps, Burdi, Guerrero, Fulmer, Adams (Any starter prospects that don't work out)

'19 Bench: C Narvaez, 1B/3B Davidson, INF Sanchez, U Cordell

Ding ding ding.

 

If we've gotta replace Machado for Donaldson, then so be it... but you and I are of the same mind. Then hopefully by 2020 we'll have Robert, Burger, and more coming up in the second wave.

[hogan873]

Greg, the issue is Avisail and Abreu's contracts. THey each have two years left. What Hahn needs to figure out is whether they should extend or trade either player. The worst case scenario would be to do nothing in this instance. My guess is that they try and trade Garcia this winter and lock up Abreu to a 4 year extension.

The two years left for these two guys does seem to be one of the bigger concerns. I do think that Avi has figured something out, and he could be pretty productive for a while. Abreu, however, has been consistently good at the plate since he was signed. I agree that if one were traded, it would be Avi. I like the idea of extending Abreu so he'd be around for the competitive years. I wouldn't be upset if they did the same with Avi, but the Sox have enough OF talent coming that trading Avi might make more sense, especially considering what extending him might cost.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I wouldn't count on Rodon for anything going forward. He just had shoulder surgery, and even though there was no structural damage, nobody knows how it will respond. At best, I'd pencil him in as a LOOGY or late inning reliever, or 5th starter.

 

I also am of the belief that Rodon shouldn't be counted on as a starter any longer. I'd actually prefer that we move him to the bullpen as a setup man or maybe even try him as a closer. I'd imagine in a closer role his fastball and slider would be devastating, The dude just can't stay healthy.. I think it's time to make a switch with him.

[Balta1701]

I also am of the belief that Rodon shouldn't be counted on as a starter any longer. I'd actually prefer that we move him to the bullpen as a setup man or maybe even try him as a closer. I'd imagine in a closer role his fastball and slider would be devastating, The dude just can't stay healthy.. I think it's time to make a switch with him.

I think there's a good chance this will happen with Rodon eventually, but I don't think it'll happen with the White Sox. They will obviously give him another chance to start next season whenever he does finish rehabbing, and if he gets hurt one more time he's going to be supplanted in the rotation right about the time his arbitration cost starts going up.

[Dunt]

You just don't know until he pitches next August. We have no idea what kind of stuff he'll have.

 

He'll be back way before August

[southsider2k5]

He'll be back way before August

 

The most conservative outlook was the beginning of June. Not sure where August is coming from.

[Dunt]

The most conservative outlook was the beginning of June. Not sure where August is coming from.

 

Yup, I'm conservatively expecting mid May, early June. Anything earlier is bonus.

 

 

 

Another idea for this offseason:

 

-Work out a trade with the Dodgers where you are taking on the rest of AGon's contract and getting Yusniel Diaz or DJ Peters

[Bob Sacamano]

Yup, I'm conservatively expecting mid May, early June. Anything earlier is bonus.

 

 

 

Another idea for this offseason:

 

-Work out a trade with the Dodgers where you are taking on the rest of AGon's contract and getting Yusniel Diaz or DJ Peters

 

Would the current Dodgers front office with Andrew Friendman do that kind of deal though? I think it's more likely they'd just release Gonzalez then trade prospects away with him.

[Balta1701]

Would the current Dodgers front office with Andrew Friendman do that kind of deal though? I think it's more likely they'd just release Gonzalez then trade prospects away with him.

The trick for the Dodgers this offseason is - do they want to really make an effort to get under the luxury tax 1 year? If they do, they can launch a spending spree next offseason without having to pay the multi-year repeater penalties. Based on their previous purchases and guys like Seager hitting arbitration in 2019, it's possible that getting under the tax for 1 year could save them more than $50 million in 2019 and 2020.

[witesoxfan]

Sign C Rene Rivera - 1 yr/$6.5M

Sign SP Clay Buchholz - 1 yr/$9M (+1 team option year/buyout)

Sign 1B Yonder Alonso - 2 yr/$26M

Sign RP Neftali Feliz - 1 yr/$4M

Sign RP Brandon Kintzler - 2 yr/$10M

Sign RP Brandon Morrow - 3 yr/$24M

Sign RP Ian Krol - 1 yr/$5M (+ 2 team option years/buyout)

 

I don't see any significant trades happening. Doubt Abreu or Avi get moved, and no one else is worth giving up on.

 

Almost all 7 of these guys are dudes you sign and then hope to flip. Krol is more of a project piece that you hope to mold. He's only 26 and was actually very solid in 2016. Needs to work on control.

 

I would love for us to grab a big bullpen arms like Holland, Davis, or McGee, to flip at the deadline, but I can see the contending teams overpaying for all those guys and the Sox just going more for the B-tier and reclamation arms to try to sell high on.

 

But bottom line, all these guys (except for Rivera and Krol, and maybe Morrow due to years of control), are signings you make with the sole intention of dumping by July.

 

This was Brandon Morrow's first "healthy" season in 6 seasons, and he still only pitched in 45 games, and you want to give him a 3 year contract.

 

Also, this whole "bring all of these guys in to dump them" strategy works in video games, but does not work very well in real life. You can do that for a couple of guys, but bringing in 7 players for a combined $84.5+ million to dump them sets a really bad example for the franchise in free agency.

 

Frankly, with the guys the Sox have, I'm OK with one or two small signings in hopes of reclamation (so that they can keep them moving forward) and seeing what the guys in the system can do.

[Bob Sacamano]

The trick for the Dodgers this offseason is - do they want to really make an effort to get under the luxury tax 1 year? If they do, they can launch a spending spree next offseason without having to pay the multi-year repeater penalties. Based on their previous purchases and guys like Seager hitting arbitration in 2019, it's possible that getting under the tax for 1 year could save them more than $50 million in 2019 and 2020.

 

If that happens to be the case, the deal should probably expand to add another prospect or two and then another over-priced pitcher like McCarthy or Kazmir. With the Sox payroll being so low, it's a possibility for sure. That would be taking on about $40 mill but for only one season if it is Kazmir and about $34 mill for one season if you took on McCarthy. The Sox would have to get some pretty good prospects for that, whether it be low minors or not.

 

 

White Sox off-season outlook on MLBTR has their payroll at $45 mill after arbitration raises as of now.

Edited November 2, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Jack Parkman]

The most conservative outlook was the beginning of June. Not sure where August is coming from.

I'm assuming that he'll have a 3 week rehab stint in the minors, which would put him back right after the all-star break. Which is July, but a week or two from August anyway. Semantics.

[southsider2k5]

I'm assuming that he'll have a 3 week rehab stint in the minors, which would put him back right after the all-star break. Which is July, but a week or two from August anyway. Semantics.

 

I was under the impression that was included in the timeline, not excluded.

[Soha]

If that happens to be the case, the deal should probably expand to add another prospect or two and then another over-priced pitcher like McCarthy or Kazmir. With the Sox payroll being so low, it's a possibility for sure. That would be taking on about $40 mill but for only one season if it is Kazmir and about $34 mill for one season if you took on McCarthy. The Sox would have to get some pretty good prospects for that, whether it be low minors or not.

 

 

White Sox off-season outlook on MLBTR has their payroll at $45 mill after arbitration raises as of now.

 

Are you listening to what you're saying? That the Sox might pay $40 mil for a few good prospects? Are we losing sight of how much money $40 million dollars really is? Jerry will never do that. Nor should he.

 

Maybe if one of the prospects is a Moncada/Jimenez type prospect, but we know that ain't happening. And even if one was, JR still wouldn't do it since he just paid similar dollars for Luis Robert.

[Jack Parkman]

I was under the impression that was included in the timeline, not excluded.

I was under the impression that the timeline was for him to start baseball activities again, which is why I said August in the first place.

[southsider2k5]

I was under the impression that the timeline was for him to start baseball activities again, which is why I said August in the first place.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0928-story.html

 

The surgery, performed in Los Angeles by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, revealed "significant bursitis," but the positive news was that it found no damage to the labrum or biceps. The shoulder was debrided— the removal of dead, damaged or infected tissue to promote healing — and Hahn said the Sox expect Rodon to need six to eight months of recovery. That would put Rodon's return sometime between opening day on March 29 in Kansas City and the beginning of June.

[southsider2k5]

Are you listening to what you're saying? That the Sox might pay $40 mil for a few good prospects? Are we losing sight of how much money $40 million dollars really is? Jerry will never do that. Nor should he.

 

Maybe if one of the prospects is a Moncada/Jimenez type prospect, but we know that ain't happening. And even if one was, JR still wouldn't do it since he just paid similar dollars for Luis Robert.

 

 

The Sox are also going to be operating at a huge margin next year, with no international spending to speak of, and a cap of about $10 million in the draft. It isn't that crazy to think of next year, especially as the majority of the Robert money will be accounted for.

[Balta1701]

The Sox are also going to be operating at a huge margin next year, with no international spending to speak of, and a cap of about $10 million in the draft. It isn't that crazy to think of next year, especially as the majority of the Robert money will be accounted for.

What we have to keep in mind is the prices. If you're taking on a $50 million deal in order to get a guy, you are basically buying that prospect for $50 million for his 6 years, and absorbing any risk of him flopping or getting hurt, with an additional $30 million or so of costs on the top side.

 

If we'd taken on a $50 million deal to acquire Rodon, right now we'd be less than thrilled with that deal, and if Rodon comes out next year and suddenly turns into an excellent pitcher, we'll still have to pay him an extra $40 million in arbitration over the next 3 years.

 

In other words, if we're talking about buying a prospect like this, that $40-$50 million number floated earlier should buy you one of the top prospects in baseball. That level of money should buy a Robert-quality prospect. $20 million taken on should probably buy someone in the top 100. That's going to be tough to see the Dodgers giving up. Hell, I'm not sure the Dodgers actually have anyone worth buying for those prices.

[Bob Sacamano]

What we have to keep in mind is the prices. If you're taking on a $50 million deal in order to get a guy, you are basically buying that prospect for $50 million for his 6 years, and absorbing any risk of him flopping or getting hurt, with an additional $30 million or so of costs on the top side.

 

If we'd taken on a $50 million deal to acquire Rodon, right now we'd be less than thrilled with that deal, and if Rodon comes out next year and suddenly turns into an excellent pitcher, we'll still have to pay him an extra $40 million in arbitration over the next 3 years.

 

In other words, if we're talking about buying a prospect like this, that $40-$50 million number floated earlier should buy you one of the top prospects in baseball. That level of money should buy a Robert-quality prospect. $20 million taken on should probably buy someone in the top 100. That's going to be tough to see the Dodgers giving up. Hell, I'm not sure the Dodgers actually have anyone worth buying for those prices.

 

That's why I said at the beginning of this convo that it probably isn't likely.

[Balta1701]

That's why I said at the beginning of this convo that it probably isn't likely.

We're going to hear about this idea all offseason and it makes sense in theory, it's just hard to make actual names work out with the math.

[southsider2k5]

What we have to keep in mind is the prices. If you're taking on a $50 million deal in order to get a guy, you are basically buying that prospect for $50 million for his 6 years, and absorbing any risk of him flopping or getting hurt, with an additional $30 million or so of costs on the top side.

 

If we'd taken on a $50 million deal to acquire Rodon, right now we'd be less than thrilled with that deal, and if Rodon comes out next year and suddenly turns into an excellent pitcher, we'll still have to pay him an extra $40 million in arbitration over the next 3 years.

 

In other words, if we're talking about buying a prospect like this, that $40-$50 million number floated earlier should buy you one of the top prospects in baseball. That level of money should buy a Robert-quality prospect. $20 million taken on should probably buy someone in the top 100. That's going to be tough to see the Dodgers giving up. Hell, I'm not sure the Dodgers actually have anyone worth buying for those prices.

 

Instead we are going to wait until free agency and spend exponentially more? There are still a ton of question marks in this system and players still need to be brought in. If the Sox really are going to stay cheap, this is doomed as a half-assed rebuild. I know everyone wants to talk about the Cubs and Astros, but you can't ignore that they also put some of that money to use. The Cubs themselves spent about half a billion dollars in free agency to put themselves over the top. The Astros have also added a couple of hundred million in future obligations on to make their championship happen.

 

Or we can just sit by and hope that our player development has come far enough that with what we have will end up being enough to be a title winning core, as there isn't really anything of value left to trade, and players that are draft next year aren't really going to be in the core until next decade anyway.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Also, this whole "bring all of these guys in to dump them" strategy works in video games, but does not work very well in real life. You can do that for a couple of guys, but bringing in 7 players for a combined $84.5+ million to dump them sets a really bad example for the franchise in free agency.

 

4 guys.

 

But bottom line, all these guys (except for Rivera and Krol, and maybe Morrow due to years of control), are signings you make with the sole intention of dumping by July.