Is this rock bottom

[Dick Allen]

With a lot of Detroit, Minnesota, KC, and even Baltimore on the remaining schedule, although you wouldn't believe it watching this series, their winning percentage should improve. 

It's what they do. They look awful now, but will look decent at times. 

[elrockinMT]

Winning always makes things better. Young players need to gain experience and as they do and develop the Sox will compete and soon. We are on the cusp of young stars being promoted and things will get real

[The Mighty Mite]

4 hours ago, zisk said:

    I'm 56 and the Cubs have always had more fans. Just start winning and every thing will be okay.

I'm 72 and grew up and  long for the good old days of the GO GO SOX era when we outdrew the Cubs between 1951 and 1967 and Chicago was a Sox town.

Edited August 2, 2018 by The Mighty Mite

[bmags]

This has been so much worse than I was imagining, and i had prepared myself for backsliding. Developing multiple young pitchers at once sucks when you get that bad tail end of it.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

29 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The same people who howled for a rebuild are the same people on twitter and on here that show zero semblance of patience for Eloy and Kopech, the cornerstones of the rebuild along with Moncada.  

The problem is the whole sustained excellence thing. If Eloy and Kopech are brought up before the super 2 passes they will still be here though 2024 correct ? If they are going to be really good and the Sox are going to be really good I'll just guess it should be 20-24 which for our franchise would be 4 years of sustained excellence and hopefully a World Series win in that time,

So 2025 would be their free agent years ? Again just not 100% clear.  So let me assume we sign some good free agents and some other minor leaguers pan out pretty well also.  The Sox have always acted like a mid market team when it comes to salaries and if there are some free agent contracts along with Kopech and Eloy poised for big paydays also  how long can the Sox realistically sustain excellence ? Of course there will be potholes along the way even in winning seasons that will require spending more and trading prospects at the trade deadline to have a better chance of winning a World Series.

I know extensions can be signed and there's also a labor problem potentially smack-dab in the middle of the competitive window and even a possible sale of the team.

MY long winded point ? Is it really such a big deal to have that extra year of control when so much else will be going on between now and then ? The Sox clearly CAN keep them down til super 2 but why if they are ready ? Management should never yield its upper hand like a hammer when it comes to highly paid and skilled individuals.

It might be selfish to want them up now but it's just as selfish to want to hold them back for the extra year hoping to extent the competitive window. The Sox will be lucky to have at max a 5 year competitive window . How long was the Royal competitive window ? Who do the Sox operate more like, the Royals , Cubs or Astro's ? Maybe that's a more important question.

"Checking the boxes" has now become a running joke ( or a meme) as you kids like to call it. And why is it a joke ? Because everyone knows Eloy is ready  and probably becomes the best hitter the Sox have. Raise your hand if you were in a similar situation if it wouldn't make you angry.

[ChiSox59]

10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The problem is the whole sustained excellence thing. If Eloy and Kopech are brought up before the super 2 passes they will still be here though 2024 correct ? If they are going to be really good and the Sox are going to be really good I'll just guess it should be 20-24 which for our franchise would be 4 years of sustained excellence and hopefully a World Series win in that time,

So 2025 would be their free agent years ? Again just not 100% clear.  So let me assume we sign some good free agents and some other minor leaguers pan out pretty well also.  The Sox have always acted like a mid market team when it comes to salaries and if there are some free agent contracts along with Kopech and Eloy poised for big paydays also  how long can the Sox realistically sustain excellence ? Of course there will be potholes along the way even in winning seasons that will require spending more and trading prospects at the trade deadline to have a better chance of winning a World Series.

I know extensions can be signed and there's also a labor problem potentially smack-dab in the middle of the competitive window and even a possible sale of the team.

MY long winded point ? Is it really such a big deal to have that extra year of control when so much else will be going on between now and then ? The Sox clearly CAN keep them down til super 2 but why if they are ready ? Management should never yield its upper hand like a hammer when it comes to highly paid and skilled individuals.

It might be selfish to want them up now but it's just as selfish to want to hold them back for the extra year hoping to extent the competitive window. The Sox will be lucky to have at max a 5 year competitive window . How long was the Royal competitive window ? Who do the Sox operate more like, the Royals , Cubs or Astro's ? Maybe that's a more important question.

"Checking the boxes" has now become a running joke ( or a meme) as you kids like to call it. And why is it a joke ? Because everyone knows Eloy is ready  and probably becomes the best hitter the Sox have. Raise your hand if you were in a similar situation if it wouldn't make you angry.

If the Sox wait until ~ April 20, 2019 to call up Eloy and Kopech, they will own them through the 2025 season.  If they bring them up before that, they will own them through the 2024 season.  

The Super 2 cutoff (which would give the Sox 3 arb years instead of 4) is usually in the middle of the June.  I see almost no scenario where they're kept from the big leagues that long unless they're hurt. 

Edited August 2, 2018 by ChiSox59

[Balta1701]

Super 2 is a different deadline than the extra year of control.

If the White Sox keep Kopech and Jiminez in the minors through the date in April next year, then they will be free agents following the 2025 season. Their setup will go like this:

2019: pre-arb
2020: pre-arb
2021: pre-arb
2022: Arb1
2023: Arb2
2024: Arb3
2025: Arb4

The super 2 deadline is the deadline where that Arb1 year converts to a pre-arb year. That will probably be passed in June of next year, we already passed it for this year. Because the player reaches arbitration fewer times, they make less money in this case.

2019: pre-arb
2020: pre-arb
2021: pre-arb
2022: pre-arb
2023: Arb1
2024: Arb2
2025: Arb3

If they are called up right now, the schedule is as follows:

2018: pre-arb
2019: pre-arb
2020: pre-arb
2021: pre-arb
2022: Arb1
2023: Arb2
2024: Arb3

(Unless they are signed to an extension).

[Lip Man 1]

The Sox may very well be this bad again in 2019. It just depends on what happens this off season.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Lip Man 1 said:

The Sox may very well be this bad again in 2019. It just depends on what happens this off season.

Yep.  I hope they dabble in the FA.  Shoot for the moon with Machado, but ultimately fall a little short in someone like Dozier for 3B.  I think AJ Pollock makes a ton of sense for this team.

Pollock - CF

Moncada - 2B

Abreu - 1B

Eloy - LF

Garcia - RF

Dozier - 3B

Castillo - C

Palka / Davidson - DH

Anderson - SS

BN: Narvaez, Leury, Yolmer, Tilson

Rotation: Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Giolito, and Stephens

Bullpen: Jones, Burdi, Hamilton, Fry, Vieira, Avilan, Covey

Probably not a contending team, but they could be decent without hampering the future.  No big time prospects are blocked at 3B and CF for 2-3 year type deals.  

[southsider2k5]

56 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

The Sox may very well be this bad again in 2019. It just depends on what happens this off season.

As one of the few people who said this season would NOT be better than 2018, I will say that 2019 will be better than 2018.  If nothing else happens, there will be more high end talent arriving in Chicago from the minors.  That talent will struggle at times, but it will also be better than the placeholders they will be replacing.

[Dick Allen]

53 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yep.  I hope they dabble in the FA.  Shoot for the moon with Machado, but ultimately fall a little short in someone like Dozier for 3B.  I think AJ Pollock makes a ton of sense for this team.

Pollock - CF

Moncada - 2B

Abreu - 1B

Eloy - LF

Garcia - RF

Dozier - 3B

Castillo - C

Palka / Davidson - DH

Anderson - SS

BN: Narvaez, Leury, Yolmer, Tilson

Rotation: Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Giolito, and Stephens

Bullpen: Jones, Burdi, Hamilton, Fry, Vieira, Avilan, Covey

Probably not a contending team, but they could be decent without hampering the future.  No big time prospects are blocked at 3B and CF for 2-3 year type deals.  

The exodus in Cleveland begins in earnest after this season. The entire AL Central will be in some form of rebuild. Stay the course, but if you have a shot at a couple of bargains if the big targets can't be had....you might be able to sneak in a good season. But a lot would still have to go right.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yep.  I hope they dabble in the FA.  Shoot for the moon with Machado, but ultimately fall a little short in someone like Dozier for 3B.  I think AJ Pollock makes a ton of sense for this team.

Pollock - CF

Moncada - 2B

Abreu - 1B

Eloy - LF

Garcia - RF

Dozier - 3B

Castillo - C

Palka / Davidson - DH

Anderson - SS

BN: Narvaez, Leury, Yolmer, Tilson

Rotation: Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Giolito, and Stephens

Bullpen: Jones, Burdi, Hamilton, Fry, Vieira, Avilan, Covey

Probably not a contending team, but they could be decent without hampering the future.  No big time prospects are blocked at 3B and CF for 2-3 year type deals.  

I like Pollock a lot but will he be worth losing a high second draft pick to sign given his age and injury history? I presume he will receive a QO from Arizona.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Along the lines of free agent signings this offseason, I think Grandal needs to be priority #1 (I've given up on the Machado fantasy). I doubt he will receive a QO from LA and the Sox really need to bring in an experienced, strong defensive catcher to work with these young pitchers the next few years. I wouldn't be upset if they signed him and no one else this winter. Of the bottom tier FA's, I'd also consider Leonys Martin to cover CF for a couple years until Lubo is ready in 2020 (hopefully).

[ChiSox59]

31 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I like Pollock a lot but will he be worth losing a high second draft pick to sign given his age and injury history? I presume he will receive a QO from Arizona.

Depends on how much the QO hampers his market and lowers the asking price.  

[ChiSox59]

27 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Along the lines of free agent signings this offseason, I think Grandal needs to be priority #1 (I've given up on the Machado fantasy). I doubt he will receive a QO from LA and the Sox really need to bring in an experienced, strong defensive catcher to work with these young pitchers the next few years. I wouldn't be upset if they signed him and no one else this winter. Of the bottom tier FA's, I'd also consider Leonys Martin to cover CF for a couple years until Lubo is ready in 2020 (hopefully).

Pretty sure Martin is signed through next season.  I thought he was a FA as well, but was corrected, and he is indeed controlled for next season.

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yep.  I hope they dabble in the FA.  Shoot for the moon with Machado, but ultimately fall a little short in someone like Dozier for 3B.  I think AJ Pollock makes a ton of sense for this team.

 

For the 80- 100 games he plays per season?  Not counting this season, he had played in 55% of the games since 2014.  I have a hard time betting on him being more durable playing into his 30s.

[chitownsportsfan]

if they keep eloy down for super 2 reasons next year they can fuck off and I'd reconsider spending any money ever again to see them.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, turnin' two said:

For the 80- 100 games he plays per season?  Not counting this season, he had played in 55% of the games since 2014.  I have a hard time betting on him being more durable playing into his 30s.

He certainly has had his fair share of injuries.  But that is how you find an undervalued asset.  It certainly is going to affect his FA market, as will his QO assuming he gets one.  He is really good when he is healthy.  If he didn't have an injury history, he'd be getting a monster FA deal.  

[SCCWS]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yep.  I hope they dabble in the FA.  Shoot for the moon with Machado, but ultimately fall a little short in someone like Dozier for 3B.  I think AJ Pollock makes a ton of sense for this team.

Pollock - CF

Moncada - 2B

Abreu - 1B

Eloy - LF

Garcia - RF

Dozier - 3B

Castillo - C

Palka / Davidson - DH

Anderson - SS

BN: Narvaez, Leury, Yolmer, Tilson

Rotation: Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Giolito, and Stephens

Bullpen: Jones, Burdi, Hamilton, Fry, Vieira, Avilan, Covey

Probably not a contending team, but they could be decent without hampering the future.  No big time prospects are blocked at 3B and CF for 2-3 year type deals.  

Just me, but I don't think Stephens will be up next year.   I think younger guys will pass him based on his showing in Charlotte. 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, SCCWS said:

Just me, but I don't think Stephens will be up next year.   I think younger guys will pass him based on his showing in Charlotte. 

Someone has to fill the 5th starter role.  Maybe they sign a veteran they can flip, with the hope that Dunning is the rotation by midseason. But I think Stephens will be given an opportunity at some point (probably a few starts in September, and the 5th starter role is to start next year). 

[jenksycat]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The problem is the whole sustained excellence thing. If Eloy and Kopech are brought up before the super 2 passes they will still be here though 2024 correct ? If they are going to be really good and the Sox are going to be really good I'll just guess it should be 20-24 which for our franchise would be 4 years of sustained excellence and hopefully a World Series win in that time,

So 2025 would be their free agent years ? Again just not 100% clear.  So let me assume we sign some good free agents and some other minor leaguers pan out pretty well also.  The Sox have always acted like a mid market team when it comes to salaries and if there are some free agent contracts along with Kopech and Eloy poised for big paydays also  how long can the Sox realistically sustain excellence ? Of course there will be potholes along the way even in winning seasons that will require spending more and trading prospects at the trade deadline to have a better chance of winning a World Series.

I know extensions can be signed and there's also a labor problem potentially smack-dab in the middle of the competitive window and even a possible sale of the team.

MY long winded point ? Is it really such a big deal to have that extra year of control when so much else will be going on between now and then ? The Sox clearly CAN keep them down til super 2 but why if they are ready ? Management should never yield its upper hand like a hammer when it comes to highly paid and skilled individuals.

It might be selfish to want them up now but it's just as selfish to want to hold them back for the extra year hoping to extent the competitive window. The Sox will be lucky to have at max a 5 year competitive window . How long was the Royal competitive window ? Who do the Sox operate more like, the Royals , Cubs or Astro's ? Maybe that's a more important question.

"Checking the boxes" has now become a running joke ( or a meme) as you kids like to call it. And why is it a joke ? Because everyone knows Eloy is ready  and probably becomes the best hitter the Sox have. Raise your hand if you were in a similar situation if it wouldn't make you angry.

Its less about payroll and more about scouting/development.  "Sustained Excellence" has to mean they've fixed decades of horrific scouting and/or minor league development and as we lose the (hopefully) superstars to ridiculous contracts we're ready to back fill with young cheap talent.   Otherwise the sustained excellence will be for 3-4 years then we'll be right back to square 1 since almost all of the current young talent was not scouted/acquired through their drafts

They've shown that they can spend in the past no problems.  They just cant wastefully spend like the NYY/BOS/Cubs/LA do and have corpses on the roster making 200m.  I don't think they'll have a problem dishing out money, they just won't be able to give out some 8 year deal to a 29 year old and get 2 productive years out of him before essentially eating the rest of the contract.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

The exodus in Cleveland begins in earnest after this season. The entire AL Central will be in some form of rebuild. Stay the course, but if you have a shot at a couple of bargains if the big targets can't be had....you might be able to sneak in a good season. But a lot would still have to go right.

Kipnis and Brantley, A. Miller and Cody Allen.....but they still have the core members of that starting staff, not to mention Lindor and Ramirez alone making them quite dangerous.   As long as they don’t have any major pitching injuries, the division is theirs for the taking, at least one more year and probably two left to go.  

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/cleveland-indians/yearly/payroll/

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, SCCWS said:

Just me, but I don't think Stephens will be up next year.   I think younger guys will pass him based on his showing in Charlotte. 

Dozier is a waste because he will be too old in 2021-23....and he’s much better suited for playing second than third.

[ChiSox59]

43 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Dozier is a waste because he will be too old in 2021-23....and he’s much better suited for playing second than third.

I think its possible Dozier could be had on a 2 year deal.  3 probably more likely.  The Sox wouldn't be signing him for 2021-2023, they'd be signing him to try and start actually winning baseball games in 19 and 20.  

Obviously Machado would be preferred, but its such a long shot its almost not worth even thinking about.  In some way or another, the Sox should be looking to upgrade at 3B next season.  They don't have any internal options and the only FA options worth noting other than Machado are Donaldson, Moustakas, Eduardo Nunez, and Eduardo Escobar who all have their flaws. 

[Jose Abreu]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think its possible Dozier could be had on a 2 year deal.  3 probably more likely.  The Sox wouldn't be signing him for 2021-2023, they'd be signing him to try and start actually winning baseball games in 19 and 20.  

Obviously Machado would be preferred, but its such a long shot its almost not worth even thinking about.  In some way or another, the Sox should be looking to upgrade at 3B next season.  They don't have any internal options and the only FA options worth noting other than Machado are Donaldson, Moustakas, Eduardo Nunez, and Eduardo Escobar who all have their flaws. 

But why sign a 31 year old with 0 MLB innings at third base to be your starting third baseman? I understand thinking that we won't get Machado, but any of the other options you listed could be better than a guy who might not be able to even play third