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2023-24 NFL Season Thread


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4th and 4 at the goal line, I was hoping SF would go for it. You’re at th  Superbowl, in OT. Play to win the damn game in the hands of your best players (McCaffrey/Purdy).

Just now, The Beast said:

I would have taken the points in the red zone like the 49ers did in overtime, but I wonder what the analytics would say to do.

 

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1 minute ago, MexSoxFan#1 said:

Mahomes is just on another level rn. The 49ers are the better team but they don't have Mahomes.

And the Bears need to find out if Williams is the guy to elevate them like Mahomes elevates his team.

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Just now, Flash Tizzle said:

4th and 4 at the goal line, I was hoping SF would go for it. You’re at th  Superbowl, in OT. Play to win the damn game in the hands of your best players (McCaffrey/Purdy).

 

McCaffrey sure looked disappointed after that one. Wonder if he wanted another crack at it. I bet he would have scored…

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18 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I was thinking the same at that point.

If KC held for the 4th down, they’d still have to drive 60 + yards for the FG. I don’t think it would’ve made a difference with how SF’s defense was looking the second half, but that’s why you’re there - to win the trophy. Put some pressure on KC to score a TD

Edited by Flash Tizzle
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13 minutes ago, Flash Tizzle said:

4th and 4 at the goal line, I was hoping SF would go for it. You’re at th  Superbowl, in OT. Play to win the damn game in the hands of your best players (McCaffrey/Purdy).

 

We know what Campbell would have done...should have used McCaffrey more to grind down the Chiefs' defense in the second quarter, but you have to get be credit to KC secondary for keeping the lead within striking distance.

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6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We know what Campbell would have done...should have used McCaffrey more to grind down the Chiefs' defense in the second quarter, but you have to get be credit to KC secondary for keeping the lead within striking distance.

That’s what’s so maddening. KC defense held McCaffrey in check the entire game. Yet their final drive he accounted for 51 yards, alone. Give him the fucking ball

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1 hour ago, The Beast said:

I would have taken the points in the red zone like the 49ers did in overtime, but I wonder what the analytics would say to do.

What boggles my mind is that KC is likely better next year. That secondary is legit and their draft picks this year and last year will likely help them restock. Losing Jones will sting but no more than Hill or the other guys they lost. 

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

What boggles my mind is that KC is likely better next year. That secondary is legit and their draft picks this year and last year will likely help them restock. Losing Jones will sting but no more than Hill or the other guys they lost. 

Losing Jones will be huge. He made Purdy get rid of the ball early so many times. Including the throw to Jennings in OT on 3rd and goal that would have been a touchdown if Purdy had more time. 

Paying Jones $30 million a year probably won't be the best use of the Bears' cap space, but he'd be a game changer for at least the first 2-3 years of his contract. 

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3 hours ago, The Beast said:

I would have taken the points in the red zone like the 49ers did in overtime, but I wonder what the analytics would say to do.

Considering this was literally the first time the new OT rules have been used, I'm not even sure if they have the historical data points to actually quantify this. Under the old rules, you probably go for the kill shot, but with KC getting the ball back regardless, I think taking the points wasn't necessarily the wrong move. The Chiefs had to convert a couple of huge 3rd and 4th downs, so it's not like they had it easy driving down for the TD. 

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kc.png&h=110&w=110

2. Kansas City Chiefs

2023 record: 11-6

Offseason in three words: Goodbye, Chris Jones?

The Chiefs wouldn't give Jones, a potential unrestricted free agent, the money he wanted on a long-term contract last season when he was holding out, so it wouldn't make sense for them to give it to him this time around. It also isn't logical for them to make him the franchise player, so it's possible Jones will be moving on. The Chiefs tried to prepare for that eventuality over the past two years, drafting George Karlaftisand Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the first round, but losing Jones would still be immense. -- Adam Teicher

 

Ravens 1, Chiefs, 49ers, Lions, Bills, Dolphins, Dallas, Philly, Houston, GB

Bears 21 (all about Fields, Williams or trade picks)

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39479402/nfl-way-too-early-power-rankings-poll-2024-plus-offseason-three-words

 

https://heavy.com/sports/kansas-city-chiefs/chris-jones-jonathan-allen-trade-rumors/

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According to Aaron Schatz and his DVOA metric, the Chiefs faced the toughest postseason run of all time toward a Super Bowl title. They did this while playing musical chairs all season before figuring out a clean rotation that worked for the postseason. They did this while dealing with some terrible losses during the regular season against inferior teams. And ultimately, they did this because they have Patrick Mahomes.

Everyone saw how flawed this Chiefs team was during the regular season — and they still won the Super Bowl. What happens if they go out and add a big name wide receiver in the draft or free agency? Does the rest of the AFC cry? Laugh? Call the mob and kidnap Mahomes?

https://sports.yahoo.com/this-was-patrick-mahomes-masterpiece-of-a-season-and-he-saved-the-chiefs-super-bowl-on-a-vintage-play-081144861.html


https://sports.yahoo.com/how-kyle-shanahan-lost-the-super-bowl-after-winning-the-ot-coin-flip-061238455.html

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8 hours ago, chw42 said:

Considering this was literally the first time the new OT rules have been used, I'm not even sure if they have the historical data points to actually quantify this. Under the old rules, you probably go for the kill shot, but with KC getting the ball back regardless, I think taking the points wasn't necessarily the wrong move. The Chiefs had to convert a couple of huge 3rd and 4th downs, so it's not like they had it easy driving down for the TD. 

That is a fair point, but even if you remove the new OT rules as a variable, I think you can still get data points from the regular season and/or the playoffs to determine the number of times teams went for it on 4th down versus going for the FG and the win/loss result. I would agree with you it wasn’t necessarily the wrong move, but seeing the analytics would be interesting.

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You can say all you want about the third team possessing the ball having a guaranteed shot to win the game outright…but that discounts all the permutations of deal with Mahomes knowing exactly what he needs to do (like going on 4th and 1 deep in own territory, or setting every drive up with punting never an option)…not to mention Greenlaw was out by that point, and how huge he was for their defense.  And then how much the Chiefs possessed the ball in the second half and finally started to wear down the SF defense.  And it’s Patrick Mahomes, lol.  The lead specifically mad a rule to thwart him, Tyreek Hill and Kelce because they were so deadly automatic.

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17 hours ago, MexSoxFan#1 said:

Mahomes is just on another level rn. The 49ers are the better team but they don't have Mahomes.

Further proof of why a stud QB means more than all else, and why the Bears need to keep looking for one rather than sticking with Fields.

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21 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Further proof of why a stud QB means more than all else, and why the Bears need to keep looking for one rather than sticking with Fields.

Pure speed wise...Williams has Mahomes beat.

Judgement and decision-making that made that game one of his first interceptions surrendered in ages...that's the kind of thing that only comes from repeated experiences on the biggest stages, enabling his weakest team to win away from Arrowhead 3 consecutive as slight underdogs.

Williams tends to force things...and running so much in the NFL gets you injured eventually.

There were 3-4 risks that Mahomes took running with the ball that he hardly ever does in the regular season...well, minus the time he got his helmet cracked open.

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