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2024 PECOTA / Fangraphs Standings & Consensus Regular Season Win Total Odds

Lip Man 1

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South Side Hit Men Grand Master

South Side Hit Men

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Predictions are as of 2/6. The best 2/5 Over and Under Odds among the five linked are included below.

While each of the three WAR calculations and projections have merit (Baseball Reference being the third), I've found Baseball Prospectus to be the best of the three in terms of win loss projections based on their system and the fact they spend more time on the playing time allotment for their paid audience. FanGraphs will flesh out their run differential and perhaps a more refined W/L prediction before Spring Training.

PECOTA has all six divisions with a prohibitive favorite (over 50% probability), with four of the six over 67%. AL East 57.8% Yankees and 52.4% Saint Louis the two outliers.

Half of MLB teams start the season with an under 5% probability of winning the division. Nine teams have a pathetic 0.0% (White Sox, Oakland, Washington and Colorado) through 1.2% probability.

Signings of the top remaining free agents (Snell 3.3, Montgomery 3.2, Chapman 2.6, Bellinger 2.4, Soler 1.9, Ryu 1.8, Anderson 1.6) will impact additional wins along the margins along with injuries or any remaining significant trades of Cease or others.

American League East ( + 60 > .500) ( + 44 > .500)

  1. New York Yankees 94-68 .583 57.8% Divsion + 143 RD 89-73 .551 Over 93 -110 Caesars Under 93 1/2 -108 FanDuel
  2. Toronto Blue Jays 88-74 .544 16.0% Division + 81 RD 85-77 .524 Over 86 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 88 -110 Caesars
  3. Baltimore Orioles 87-75 .535 12.1% Division + 66 RD 86-76 .529 Over 90 1/2 - 120 DraftKings Under 91 1/2 +105 bet365
  4. Tampa Bay Rays 86-76 .532 12.6% Division + 63 RD 86-76 .532 Over 84 - 110 Caesars Under 85 1/2 -110 BetMGM
  5. Boston Red Sox 80-82 .493 1.5% Division + 7 RD 81-81 .502 Over 79 - 110 Caesars Under 80 1/2 -110 DraftKings

American League Central ( - 48 < .500) ( - 34 < .500)

  1. Minnesota Twins 88-74 .544 67.9% Division + 57 RD 84-78 .521 Over 85 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 86 1/2 +100 DraftKings
  2. Cleveland Guardians 83-79 .515 28.8% Division + 16 RD 80-82 .493 Over 76 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 78 -110 Caesars
  3. Detroit Tigers 75-87 .460 2.8% Division - 60 RD 79-83 .487 Over 79 1/2 -130 bet365 Under 81 -110 Caesars
  4. Kansas City Royals 70-92 .433 0.5% Division - 108 RD 75-87 .466 Over 72 1/2 -115 FanDuel Under 73 1/2 +1- Draft Kings
  5. Chicago White Sox 65-97 .404 0.0% Division - 152 RD 68-94 .418 Over 62 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 63 1/2 -110 FanDuel

American League West ( + 2 > .500) ( + 8 > .500)

  1. Houston Astros 95-67 .586 75.8% Division + 134 RD 91-71 .560 Over 92 -110 Caesars Under 92 1/2 -105 DraftKings
  2. Texas Rangers 86-76 .532 13.8% Division + 52 RD 82-80 .506 Over 89 -110 Caesars Under 89 1/2 -110 BetMGM
  3. Seattle Mariners 85-77 .523 10.2% Division + 40 RD 86-76 .533 Over 86 1/2 -105 BetMGM Under 87 -110 Caesars
  4. Los Angeles Angels 75-87 .460 0.2% Division - 59 RD 78-84 .484 Over 71 1/2 -110 DraftKings Under 71 1/2 +100 bet365
  5. Oakland Athletics 65-97 .400 0.0% Division - 152 RD 71-91 .440 Over 56 1/2 +100 DraftKings Under 57 1/2 -110 FanDuel

National League East ( + 4 > .500) ( + 10 > .500)

  1. Atlanta N. L. Team 101-61 .622 93.3% Division + 184 RD 97-65 .598 Over 100 1/2 -115 DraftKings Under 101 1/2 -105 FanDuel
  2. Philadelphia Phillies 84-78 .520 2.5% Division + 81 RD 85-77 .524 Over 89 1/2 -110 Caesars Under 90 1/2 -104 bet365
  3. New York Mets 84-78 .535 3.2% Division + 24 RD 81-81 .500 Over 82 -110 Caesars Under 82 1/2 +100 DraftKings
  4. Miami Marlins 80-82 .496 1.0% Division - 8 RD 81-81 .500 Over 77 -110 Caesars Under 78 1/2 +100 bet365
  5. Washington Nationals 58-104 .357 0.0% Division -124 RD 66-96 .405 Over 66 1/2 -105 DraftKing Under 67 -110 Caesars

National League Central ( - 18 < .500) ( - 10 < .500)

  1. Saint Louis Cardinals 86-76 .528 5 52.4% Division + 32 RD 83-79 .515 Over 84 1/2 -110 DraftKings Under 86 1/2 -110 FanDuel
  2. Chicago Cubs 80-82 .495 20.2% Division - 17 RD 81-81 .497 Over 83 1/2 -110 FanDuel Under 84 1/2 +100 DraftKings
  3. Milwaukee Brewers 79-83 .486 12.7% Division - 25 RD 80-82 .495 Over 75 1/2 -110 FanDuel Under 76 1/2 -115 DraftKings
  4. Cincinnati Reds 78-84 .483 12.5% Division - 34 RD 79-83 .486 Over 82 1/2 +100 DraftKings Under 82 1/2 -110 FanDuel
  5. Pittsburgh Pirates 73-89 .451 2.2% Division - 85 RD 77-85 .474 Over 73 1/2 -105 DraftKings Under 74 1/2 -110 FanDuel

National League West ( + 0 > .500) ( + 2 > .500)

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers 101-61 .624  94.6% Division + 194 RD 93-79 .575 Over 103 1/2 -120 DraftKings Under 104 1/2 -110 bet365
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks 85-77 .526 3.4% Division + 43 RD 84-78 .516 Over 83 1/2 -110 FanDuel Under 84 1/2 -110 Caesars
  3. San Francisco Giants 81-81 .500 1.2% Division - 3 RD 79-83 .488 Over 81 1/2 +100 Draft Kings Under 82 -110 Caesars
  4. San Diego Padres 80-82 .492 0.8% Division - 11 RD 81-81 .500 Over 81 1/2 -105 DrafKings Under 81 1/2 -106 FanDuel
  5. Colorado Rockies 58-104 .358 0.0% Division - 221 RD 64-98 .393 Over 59 1/2 -130 bet365 Under 60 1/2 +100 DraftKings

Still think the Sox at over 62 1/2 wins give you a decent margin of safety, with the trade of Santos and likely trade of Cease and perhaps others, they may be closer than I'd wish. Based in the PECOTA projections and listed odds, the best bets in terms of a blended current PECOTA and FanGraphs projections are as follows:

Best Bets

  1. Over 56 1/2 + 100 Oakland A's DraftKings - Looks like the best bet at this juncture, but Fisher is a wild card. Still don't see them dumping beyond July trades.
  2. Under 67 -110 Washington Nationals Caesars - Washington is really going to suck ass this season, and the rest of the division is decent plus, so a likely winner, though FanGraphs thinks the total is in line with their current 66 win predication.

Likely now, but concerns with ownership dumping further the rest of the year

  1. Over 76 1/2 -110  Cleveland Guardians BetMGM - Cleveland's ownership gives me pause they may dump Bieber and other pieces.

Think they will continue to add before OD and possibly in July, shrinking the margin of safety

  • Under 90 1/2 -104 Philadelphia Phillies bet365
  • Under 84 1/2 + 100 Chicago Cubs DraftKings
Edited by South Side Hit Men
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Lip Man 1 Grand Master

Lip Man 1

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28 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Think my thread is much more substantial, incorporating FanGraphs and Vegas odds.

It's not hard adding a one sentence thread saying the Sox will suck for the millionth time.

I did not see your long post with so much information it made my head spin. And because I don't gamble frankly I could care less about any odds.

Just sayin...

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South Side Hit Men Grand Master

South Side Hit Men

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29 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I did not see your long post with so much information it made my head spin. And because I don't gamble frankly I could care less about any odds.

Just sayin...

It's merely projected standings and odds, not tons of info. Looks good on the PC, perhaps harder to follow on a phone.

Just commenting there was no zero substance beyond a pot shot in the other thread, or even a link to the projections.

Here's your YouTube Ron for cherry on top to honor all the One Liner Posts.

 

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greg775 Grand Master

greg775

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I got the Sox at 61 wins plus/minus 2. 

Until the Sox bullpen gets fixed, the team is unequipped for modern baseball (I am a broken record, sorry). Our starters cept for "Mr High Pitch Count" Cease are all pedestrian and the bullpen blows. I won't bore you with my everyday lineup concerns.

Yikes our team is gonna be one of the worst in team/maybe league history (win maybe 2 series all year?). Hyperbole? Maybe but I'm in a bad mood.

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WestEddy Veteran

WestEddy

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11 hours ago, greg775 said:

Yikes our team is gonna be one of the worst in team/maybe league history (win maybe 2 series all year?). Hyperbole? Maybe but I'm in a bad mood.

The record for worst record of all time belongs to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders at 34-120. The record for the "modern" era (AL/NL) is the 1962 Mets, who went 40-120. 

I would think this team could be at 45 wins by the end of July. 

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South Side Hit Men Grand Master

South Side Hit Men

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Ok, FanGraphs released their updated standings and playoff projections. 

Below is an updated projected standings with just wins and probability to win the division which should make this easier to follow on a phone.

PECOTA Link: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

Fangraphs Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Projected wins & odds to win division.

 

American League East

PECOTA (60 > .500) FanGraphs (34 > .500)

  1. New York Yankees 94 57.8% 88 39.8%
  2. Toronto Blue Jays 88 16.0% 84 14.6%
  3. Baltimore Orioles 87 12.1% 85 18.8% 
  4. Tampa Bay Rays 86 12.6% 85 21.1%
  5. Boston Red Sox 80 1.5% 80 5.7%

American League Central

PECOTA (48 < .500) FanGraphs (38 < .500)

  1. Minnesota Twins 88 67.9% 85 54.1%
  2. Cleveland Guardians 83 28.8% 80 21.9%
  3. Detroit Tigers 75 2.8% 79 17.1%
  4. Kansas City Royals 70 0.5% 75 6.4%
  5. Chicago White Sox 65 0.0% 67 0.5%

American League West

PECOTA (2 > .500) FanGraphs (0 > .500)

  1. Houston Astros 95 75.8% 91 61.3%
  2. Texas Rangers 86 13.8% 81 9.2%
  3. Seattle Mariners 85 10.2% 86 26.3%
  4. Los Angeles Angels 75 0.2% 77 3.0%
  5. Oakland Athletics 64 0.0% 70 0.2%

National League East

PECOTA (4 > .500) FanGraphs (10 > .500)

  1. Atlanta N. L. Team 101 93.3% 98 87.9%
  2. Philadelphia Phillies 84 2.5% 85 7.4%
  3. New York Mets 84 3.2% 81 2.3%
  4. Miami Marlins 80 1.0% 81 2.4%
  5. Washington Nationals 58 0.0% 65 0.0%

National League Central

PECOTA (18 < .500) FanGraphs (6 < .500)

  1. Saint Louis Cardinals 86 52.4% 84 38.4%
  2. Chicago Cubs 80 20.2% 81 21.3%
  3. Milwaukee Brewers 79 12.7% 81 19.1%
  4. Cincinnati Reds 78 12.5% 79 13.2%
  5. Pittsburgh Pirates 73 2.2% 77 8.0%

National League West

PECOTA (0 > .500) FanGraphs (0 > .500)

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers 101 94.6% 94 79.9%
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks 85 3.4% 84 11.6%
  3. San Francisco Giants 81 1.2% 80 3.3%
  4. San Diego Padres 80 0.8% 81 5.2%
  5. Colorado Rockies 58 0.0% 63 0.0%
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South Side Hit Men Grand Master

South Side Hit Men

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The biggest difference between the two systems is there appears to be a much tighter window at the top and bottom of the predicted standings for FanGraphs vs. the wider Baseball Prospectus predictions.


Largest Variance Total Wins

(PECOTA vs. FanGraphs)

PECOTA System Prefers These Teams

  1. 7 Los Angeles Dodgers 101 vs. 94
  2. 6 New York Yankees 94 vs. 88
  3. 5 Texas Rangers 86 vs. 81

FanGraphs System Prefers These Teams

  1. 7 Washington Nationals 58 vs. 65
  2. 6 Oakland Athletics 64 vs. 70
  3. 5 Kansas City Royals 70 vs. 75
  4. 5 Colorado Rockies 58 vs. 63

Largest Variance Division Titles

(PECOTA vs. FanGraphs)

PECOTA System Prefers These Teams

  1. 18.0% New York Yankees 57.8% vs. 39.8%
  2. 14.7% Los Angeles Dodgers 94.6% vs. 79.9%
  3. 14.5% Houston Astros 75.8% vs. 61.3%
  4. 14.0% Saint Louis Cardinals 52.4% vs. 38.4%
  5. 13.8% Minnesota Twins 67.9% vs. 54.1%

FanGraphs System Prefers These Teams

  1. 16.1% Seattle Mariners 10.2% vs. 26.3%
  2. 14.3% Detroit Tigers 2.8% vs. 17.1%

Largest Variance Win Total Odds vs. BP/FG Average

(Best Feb 5 Odds vs. Projection Average)

Bet Over

  1. 10 1/2 Oakland Athletics 56 1/2 vs. 67
  2. 5 Cleveland Guardians 76 1/2 vs. 81 1/2

Bet Under 

  1. 7 Los Angeles Dodgers 104 1/2 vs. 97 1/2
  2. 6  Philadelphia Phillies 90 1/2 vs. 84 1/2
  3. 6 Texas Rangers 89 1/2 vs. 83 1/2
  4. 5 1/2 Baltimore Orioles 91 1/2 vs. 86
  5. 5 1/2 Washington Nationals 67 vs. 61 1/2

The Vegas odds are more dynamic, since they take their own proprietary predictions, but adjust both for fan perception to try to balance money on both sides, and also to account for the likelihood teams will either continue to add players through the deadline like the Dodgers, Rangers and Phillies, or whether they will likely continue to dump anyone like Oakland and possibly Cleveland.

They also have to account for possible ownership changes such as Baltimore and Washington.

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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greg775 Grand Master

greg775

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2 hours ago, EloyJenkins said:

Why does Minnesota get so much love? I just don't get it with their current roster. I know it's a division of attrition, but seeing them holding near last year with all the pitching turnover and Polanco loss...I just don't see it. 

Coaching and overall front office competence and a good locker room helps them annually IMO. The Sox annually trot out a team full of plodding, average DH types and bullpens that are abysmal.

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caulfield12 Grand Master

caulfield12

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2 hours ago, greg775 said:

Coaching and overall front office competence and a good locker room helps them annually IMO. The Sox annually trot out a team full of plodding, average DH types and bullpens that are abysmal.

Big part of it is projecting a full season of at bats for Lewis....and improvement from Correa, perhaps better health from Buxton.

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