JFP

[ScottyDo]

Unless we can sign him to a VERY team-friendly contract, I don't want to bet octuple-digits on Peavy's continued health. Imagine him signing for another $20-30M and being injured again. There would be a lot of fury around here. Doesn't matter how good he is this year, he's one somewhat-likely injury away from the same thing we've been dealing with the last few years.

[dyuen]

Still a long season ahead for Peavy, and there will likely be some bumps in the road health wise. I'm of the opinion that if he pitches great this year, you thank him for his contributions this year and let him sign a big 3 year deal with the Dodgers, etc.

Agreed. Let him go. I think the odds are far more likely he would disappoint than earn another big contract. And I don't think he has the type of character that feels so bad about his performance he would give the Sox a discount.

[Dick Allen]

If Peavy pitches lights out, some other team will make him an absurd offer. The Sox will pay the buyout, and maybe they will re-sign him if he wants to come back and the price is reasonable considering they will already have $4 million in the pot. Since they didn't even bother making Buehrle an offer though, I can't see Jake being back unless this season turns out to be sort of mediocre for him, and to me, that would make him think its time to move on. He's in his final season in White Sox pinstripes.

[Jerksticks]

If Peavy pitches lights out, some other team will make him an absurd offer. The Sox will pay the buyout, and maybe they will re-sign him if he wants to come back and the price is reasonable considering they will already have $4 million in the pot. Since they didn't even bother making Buehrle an offer though, I can't see Jake being back unless this season turns out to be sort of mediocre for him, and to me, that would make him think its time to move on. He's in his final season in White Sox pinstripes.

 

Yea, we also have should have quite a bit of pitching muscle trying to bust into the big leagues by the end of the year...well if KW's plan continues to manifest. Indiana...let it go.

[Balta1701]

Yea, we also have should have quite a bit of pitching muscle trying to bust into the big leagues by the end of the year...well if KW's plan continues to manifest. Indiana...let it go.

If Peavy wants to come back to the Sox for some reason and Molina has made it apparent that he's getting a rotation slot next year, then we might finally be in a position where we see the long discussed, dreamed about, rumored about deal of Gavin Floyd. Dude would actually be a free agent post 2013 if he's not moved, and moving him would clear a decent salary chunk.

[JohnCangelosi]

Jake should sign a one year deal at the league minimum with us, since he's already going to get, what, $5M when we don't exercise the option?

 

It's good to dream....but I realize this is never going to happen. Look for a big year from JFP this year and him getting a nice contract for 2-3 yrs....but guaranteed it won't be with the White Sox.

[Jerksticks]

If Peavy wants to come back to the Sox for some reason and Molina has made it apparent that he's getting a rotation slot next year, then we might finally be in a position where we see the long discussed, dreamed about, rumored about deal of Gavin Floyd. Dude would actually be a free agent post 2013 if he's not moved, and moving him would clear a decent salary chunk.

 

Hell yea, sign me up Balta! I'm so sick of wondering if Gavin has the curve today or not.

[LVSoxFan]

I'm a Peavy fan (a lonely thing to be last couple of years) but isn't this all a bit premature?

 

I'm thrilled he's had a great start but he's pitched three games, guys. If we're at the ASB and he's still dealin' I'd be more interested in thinking about this.

[Jake]

There are only a couple things that could make it likely that he'd be back:

 

1. White Sox make deep playoff run, led by Peavy

 

2. Peavy wins Cy Young or has similar type of year and White Sox are a contender

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just enjoy it. There really isn't much of a scenario that brings him back here. If he ends up hurt or bad, we won't want him. If he ends up really good, some idiot GM will offer him too much money and/or too many years.

Yeah there is. If he keeps this up, then we'll end up picking up his option. $18 million for one year seems more than reasonable for an ace.

 

No reason to worry about this right now though. He needs to continue to dominate and prove he can stay healthy before we'd even want him back next year.

[Chicago White Sox]

There is zero chance we pick up the option.

Why? The marginal cost to pick it up is $18 million. If Jake continues to pitch like an ace and stays healthy, I'm very confident we'd pick it up. That might not be likely, but it's at least possible.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah there is. If he keeps this up, then we'll end up picking up his option. $18 million for one year seems more than reasonable for an ace.

 

No reason to worry about this right now though. He needs to continue to dominate and prove he can stay healthy before we'd even want him back next year.

 

Unless we line up someone to trade him to, or dump someone like Paul Konerko, there is no way we will have the dollars for that. So unless the park starts filling up, forget it.

[Harry Chappas]

Jake has made his money he is with the White Sox because he only wants to play in the midwest. The Tigers may makea run at him or even the Roylas but he may stay here or go to the cubs.

 

Remember the no trade clasue and the limited teams he wants to play for.

[Jerksticks]

I just hope his softer stuff translates well throughout the season. Let's hope he's not getting lucky.

[GoodAsGould]

Unless we line up someone to trade him to, or dump someone like Paul Konerko, there is no way we will have the dollars for that. So unless the park starts filling up, forget it.

 

If peavy continues to pitch like an ace the team will probably contend or he will be traded at the all star break this season anyways, if the former happens the attendance will pickup.

[ewokpelts]

If he finished anywhere below a 3.00 ERA, do you think there's really a change he would only ask for $7-8 million for two years?

 

That's less than Mark Teahen made with the Sox.

 

When's the last time you've ever heard of a star player just giving his team a blank contract?

 

I think it must have been Andre Dawson with Cubs over 20 years ago.

 

There's another thing to take into consider.

 

The White Sox got back some form of insurance compensation for all the time Peavy missed in 2010 and maybe the beginning of 2011 too...so it's not like it was a total loss for them in terms of the money they've spent on him.

 

It's like when corporations take out "death insurance" on employees, and the employee actually does die...does ANY of that money go to the family? Nope. It all goes to the company that took out an insurance policy on their employees.

 

Athletes look out for themselves. It's not his fault he was hurt. Many would argue the White Sox are to blame, for pushing him to pitch in 2009...which forced him to change his mechanics, which led directly or indirectly to his lat injury. If you were Peavy, you'd probably feel that they actually TOOK money that you were going to earn in the future away because he's probably never going to get that 95-96 MPH fastball back for the remainder of his career.

Jake got hurt the 2nd time in 2009 from a batted ball. It had NOTHING TO DO WITH his mechanics being altered/rushed.

 

[southsider2k5]

If peavy continues to pitch like an ace the team will probably contend or he will be traded at the all star break this season anyways, if the former happens the attendance will pickup.

 

That contract is going to be a huge deterrent to any team interested in Jake. He has a $4 million buyout due, on top of a prorated $17.5 million salary for this year. Picking him up at the halfway point of the season would mean taking on about 12.75 million dollars for the rest of the 2012 season. His option for 2012 is $22 million, and not the $18m that was quoted earlier.

[Steve9347]

Do you think Jake would give a considerable discount to the Sox considering how little return they've gotten on the trade to obtain him?

I actually do think that Jake would take a discount to make up for the checks he cashed when he wasn't producing. I don't know why, but I believe when I hear him say how disappointed he's been in his performance.

 

I'm sure I'm wrong, but I think he would take a discount and stay here.

[hogan873]

I would believe that any desire Peavy would have to return to the Sox would be weighed heavily on what sort of condition this team is in towards the end of the season. If the 2012 Sox contend throughout the season, Peavy would probably be more apt to re-sign vs. if the team struggles and finishes 10 games out.

 

No duh, right? However, I believe that if Peavy has a monster year, it won't matter what the Sox do. Someone else will most likely pay a lot more than the Sox would be wiling to spend.

[Chicago White Sox]

That contract is going to be a huge deterrent to any team interested in Jake. He has a $4 million buyout due, on top of a prorated $17.5 million salary for this year. Picking him up at the halfway point of the season would mean taking on about 12.75 million dollars for the rest of the 2012 season. His option for 2012 is $22 million, and not the $18m that was quoted earlier.

I'm totally confused here. If his salary is $17.5 million and the buyout is for $4 million, then you're looking at a total cost of $21.5 million. The halfway point value would be $10.75 million, which is $2 million less than you were quoting. However, you're most likely going to trade him at the deadline, so a team would really be picking $7 million or so. Not nearly as bad as the picture you're trying to paint.

 

Also, the option is indeed $22 million, but you've already factored in his buyout to the original cost of obtaining him. You can't include it there and then pretend that he still gets it if the option is picked up. The marginal cost of exercising the option is $18 million. There is no debating this.

 

Therefore, a team considering trading for Peavy is looking at roughly $7 million in guaranteed commitments and another $18 million if they'd like to keep him for 2012. That's a lot of money, but not nearly as bad as you're trying to make it out to be.

[Steve9347]

I'm totally confused here. If his salary is $17.5 million and the buyout is for $4 million, then you're looking at a total cost of $21.5 million. The halfway point value would be $10.75 million, which is $2 million less than you were quoting.

Well, I'd imagine that's because you don't cut the buyout number in half simply because you had JFP for half a season.

[chw42]

I actually do think that Jake would take a discount to make up for the checks he cashed when he wasn't producing. I don't know why, but I believe when I hear him say how disappointed he's been in his performance.

 

I'm sure I'm wrong, but I think he would take a discount and stay here.

 

He does seem like the kind of person that does genuinely feel bad about what happened with him.

 

But baseball is a business and I don't know if he would be so generous if he has a great season and can get way more money on the open market.

[Balta1701]

Well, I'd imagine that's because you don't cut the buyout number in half simply because you had JFP for half a season.

Correct, the buyout is paid entirely by the team holding him on the day they announce they're not picking up his option.

[southsider2k5]

I'm totally confused here. If his salary is $17.5 million and the buyout is for $4 million, then you're looking at a total cost of $21.5 million. The halfway point value would be $10.75 million, which is $2 million less than you were quoting. However, you're most likely going to trade him at the deadline, so a team would really be picking $7 million or so. Not nearly as bad as the picture you're trying to paint.

 

Also, the option is indeed $22 million, but you've already factored in his buyout to the original cost of obtaining him. You can't include it there and then pretend that he still gets it if the option is picked up. The marginal cost of exercising the option is $18 million. There is no debating this.

 

Therefore, a team considering trading for Peavy is looking at roughly $7 million in guaranteed commitments and another $18 million if they'd like to keep him for 2012. That's a lot of money, but not nearly as bad as you're trying to make it out to be.

 

Don't figure these as a total. The buyout is not affected by what portion of the season it is. It is $4 million no matter what. It doesn't matter if he is traded today or August 31st. Take the $17.5 million salary and divide it in two and get $8.75m. Add the $4 million buyout to it, which would come after the season, and the team who acquires Peavy owes him at least $12.75 million at that point.

 

If they don't buy him out, they owe him $22 million for next year. If you had actually used the term marginal cost for next year, that would be different (for the 18 vs 22 argument). If a team were to exercise the option after picking him up at the midpoint of this year, they would owe Jake almost $31 million (22m+8.75m) for the next year and a half.

 

Either way, that is a lot of money for a guy who has had huge injury issues for years now.

[Chicago White Sox]

Don't figure these as a total. The buyout is not affected by what portion of the season it is. It is $4 million no matter what. It doesn't matter if he is traded today or August 31st. Take the $17.5 million salary and divide it in two and get $8.75m. Add the $4 million buyout to it, which would come after the season, and the team who acquires Peavy owes him at least $12.75 million at that point.

 

If they don't buy him out, they owe him $22 million for next year. If you had actually used the term marginal cost for next year, that would be different (for the 18 vs 22 argument). If a team were to exercise the option after picking him up at the midpoint of this year, they would owe Jake almost $31 million (22m+8.75m) for the next year and a half.

 

Either way, that is a lot of money for a guy who has had huge injury issues for years now.

First off, I am a complete idiot for dividing the buyout in half. So basically it costs $10 million to pick Peavy up at the deadline. I agree that's probably too much money for a team to absorb at the deadline, especially with the luxury tax concerns affecting the big spenders.

 

I disagree about the likelihood of picking up Peavy's option if he pitches like an ace the rest of the way. Kenny traded away four prospects for an injured Peavy who had two years left at about $33 million on contract. He did this because he understands the significant value of an ace. To think KW wouldn't pay an additional $5 million to bring Peavy back, if coming off an ace-like season, seems crazy to me, especially since $4 million of that is a sunk cost.