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QUOTE (soxfan49 @ Apr 9, 2018 -> 03:45 PM)
If he finishes the year at .220 AVG with a .720 OPS & 200+ K's yet is top 5 in baseball in exit velocity, I'm going to have a hard time being excited about his 2018 year.

There is a difference between being unlucky and struggling...

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QUOTE (soxfan49 @ Apr 9, 2018 -> 04:45 PM)
If he finishes the year at .220 AVG with a .720 OPS & 200+ K's yet is top 5 in baseball in exit velocity, I'm going to have a hard time being excited about his 2018 year.

But he won't, because nobody is top 5 in exit velocity with a .220 average. Those rockets will start to fall, as we saw today.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Apr 9, 2018 -> 05:16 PM)
Benintendi has been a stud? He was a barely league average hitter last year in a corner outfield spot with not great defense and has been terrible to start this season. Personally I think he's been one of the more overrated players since he came up.

 

 

His first year in the majors and he hit .271 w 20 hrs and 90 RBI. He stole 20 bases walked 70 and struck out 112. In 151 games. We didn't have anyone w close to 70 BB and it was his first full season. He walked more than Avi and Abreu combined. You say not great defense but he was adequate learning a new position in LF in a difficult ballpark. I would take him in a heartbeat. He is the kind of player that sells tickets.

 

Even worse, I watched the Rays yesterday and the same situation as today. Colome struggled late but the difference was Benintendi knocked in the winning run in the 8th and we let him off the hook.

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I don't know if Benintendi sells tickets like Betts/Ortiz/Pedroia, but he's a VERY solid player.

 

Borderline All-Star, but he's never going to be more than an average-ish defender and that will suppress his WAR numbers. Most would pick Devers over Benintendi. At any rate, it will be interesting to see which player ends up with the better career when all is said and done.

 

 

 

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Moncada's current wRC+ would have finished 7th amongst 2B in the majors last season. If he continues to play at this rate he'll be worth ~3 WAR as a 23 year old in his first full season. Realistically, I don't think it would be fair to expect more than that from him this season.

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QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ Apr 9, 2018 -> 08:57 PM)
Moncada's current wRC+ would have finished 7th amongst 2B in the majors last season. If he continues to play at this rate he'll be worth ~3 WAR as a 23 year old in his first full season. Realistically, I don't think it would be fair to expect more than that from him this season.

I agree with all of this. I think his overall game makes him have a really high floor, which is often overlooked. I think this is the very reason we traded Sale for him, high floor and super high ceiling. You can see him easily popping off 1 WAR in a hot week where his tools are flashing.

 

3 WAR would be a great year for his age, but I think his tools automatically puts him at a 4 WAR floor, probably even this year.

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QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Apr 9, 2018 -> 08:56 PM)
I agree with all of this. I think his overall game makes him have a really high floor, which is often overlooked. I think this is the very reason we traded Sale for him, high floor and super high ceiling. You can see him easily popping off 1 WAR in a hot week where his tools are flashing.

 

3 WAR would be a great year for his age, but I think his tools automatically puts him at a 4 WAR floor, probably even this year.

 

I'm beating a dead horse here, but with his strikeout rate (which has been bonkers everywhere he's played) means his floor is TOTAL BUST. I cannot agree with assuming that, at worst, his floor is 4 WAR. He might cut down on the strikeouts, and he might succeed. That's totally possible. But we are setting ourselves up for disappointment if we look at him as a sure thing. He has a big flaw, and if you do the math, it's not hard to see how he fails.

 

700 PAs

x30% K-rate=210 Ks (his MLB K-rate is 34.5%; I'm factoring in some improvement, but not much, because his MiLB rate is around 25%)

x15% BB-rate=105 BBs (I'm improving this rate from 12% in MLB and 13% in MiLB)

Give him 20 HRs, 4 3Bs and 30 2Bs, and assume a BABiP of .345 (considering the point about exit velocity and FanGraph's suggestion that .345 indicates "batter is above average in this aspect of the game and is probably making better contact on average than most").

This produces a BA of .245, an OBP of .357, an SLG of .413 and an OPS of .770.

 

If you adjust his BABiP to .380, which FG describes as "virtually impossible", his OPS rises to .828.

 

That's with a number of generous assumptions. And .770 may look nice enough, but like you mentioned, this is what we got for Chris freaking Sale. He needs to not just be an MLB starter; he needs to be a star or the FO has failed. People often suggest he's the next Robinson Cano (.849 career OPS). I've heard that he should be better than Ray-Ray (.788 career OPS). Sounds great- but he's not there yet.

 

I do not want him to fail (that was suggested to me the other day- I've rooted for this team since 1992, when I was 5, thanks). I want him to be great. But there's a chance he won't be, and frankly, that is a big chance. He needs to stop striking out. It could happen. Kris Bryant dropped from 30% to 19% in three years (improving past his 26% in MiLB). But it may not- Miguel Sano has never budged from around 35%. If Moncada can pull a Bryant in the K category, he can absolutely be what we need him to be. But if he stays idle like Sano, we lost this trade. Period.

 

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I'll amend my post by saying that, not looking at any statistics, but just based on what I've seen, it seems like Moncada Ks looking a lot. Suggests, to me, that will improve as he gets more exposure. So maybe it's time for optimism.

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QUOTE (StrykerSox @ Apr 9, 2018 -> 10:58 PM)
I'm beating a dead horse here, but with his strikeout rate (which has been bonkers everywhere he's played) means his floor is TOTAL BUST. I cannot agree with assuming that, at worst, his floor is 4 WAR. He might cut down on the strikeouts, and he might succeed. That's totally possible. But we are setting ourselves up for disappointment if we look at him as a sure thing. He has a big flaw, and if you do the math, it's not hard to see how he fails.

 

700 PAs

x30% K-rate=210 Ks (his MLB K-rate is 34.5%; I'm factoring in some improvement, but not much, because his MiLB rate is around 25%)

x15% BB-rate=105 BBs (I'm improving this rate from 12% in MLB and 13% in MiLB)

Give him 20 HRs, 4 3Bs and 30 2Bs, and assume a BABiP of .345 (considering the point about exit velocity and FanGraph's suggestion that .345 indicates "batter is above average in this aspect of the game and is probably making better contact on average than most").

This produces a BA of .245, an OBP of .357, an SLG of .413 and an OPS of .770.

 

If you adjust his BABiP to .380, which FG describes as "virtually impossible", his OPS rises to .828.

 

That's with a number of generous assumptions. And .770 may look nice enough, but like you mentioned, this is what we got for Chris freaking Sale. He needs to not just be an MLB starter; he needs to be a star or the FO has failed. People often suggest he's the next Robinson Cano (.849 career OPS). I've heard that he should be better than Ray-Ray (.788 career OPS). Sounds great- but he's not there yet.

 

I do not want him to fail (that was suggested to me the other day- I've rooted for this team since 1992, when I was 5, thanks). I want him to be great. But there's a chance he won't be, and frankly, that is a big chance. He needs to stop striking out. It could happen. Kris Bryant dropped from 30% to 19% in three years (improving past his 26% in MiLB). But it may not- Miguel Sano has never budged from around 35%. If Moncada can pull a Bryant in the K category, he can absolutely be what we need him to be. But if he stays idle like Sano, we lost this trade. Period.

 

 

You're completely discounting Kopech and treating it like a one-for-one deal for Moncada...

 

You're also probably understating the amount of triples he'll get in a typical season (should be 8-10, at least)...my one concern would be that his speed isn't converted into stolen bases (see Anderson so far this year), but running the basepaths with reckless abandon with a franchise bat isn't exactly the wisest approach, especially in a meaningless (from a record standpoint) season.

 

Finally, you need to take into account the financials of having so many young/er players at near league minimum salaries...versus the contracts for guys like Eaton, Sale and Q (not "expensive," but there's still a significant difference.)

 

Because of the plethora of younger players, you have the luxury to go out and get a catcher, veteran outfielder, closer/reliever and perhaps a veteran 2/3 starter.

 

We weren't in a position to do that 2-3 years ago with all the expensive veterans like Cabrera, LaRoche, Dunn, Robertson, etc., on the roster. Now we have a LOT more flexibility in that area moving forward.

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There is another reason why Moncada might not achieve his potential in a White Sox uniform: Because, he plays in a White Sox uniform.

 

This has the potential to be a really bad team, and Moncada is stuck here, while the Red Sox are competing for the playoffs.

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QUOTE (oldsox @ Apr 10, 2018 -> 06:42 AM)
There is another reason why Moncada might not achieve his potential in a White Sox uniform: Because, he plays in a White Sox uniform.

 

This has the potential to be a really bad team, and Moncada is stuck here, while the Red Sox are competing for the playoffs.

And in 2019 and 2020 the White Sox have the potential to be substantially better than the Red Sox and competing for the playoffs, if Moncada is the kind of player he can be.

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QUOTE (SCCWS @ Apr 9, 2018 -> 08:05 PM)
His first year in the majors and he hit .271 w 20 hrs and 90 RBI. He stole 20 bases walked 70 and struck out 112. In 151 games. We didn't have anyone w close to 70 BB and it was his first full season. He walked more than Avi and Abreu combined. You say not great defense but he was adequate learning a new position in LF in a difficult ballpark. I would take him in a heartbeat. He is the kind of player that sells tickets.

 

Even worse, I watched the Rays yesterday and the same situation as today. Colome struggled late but the difference was Benintendi knocked in the winning run in the 8th and we let him off the hook.

He had a 103 wRC+ which was less than Moncada last year. 20 HR is not that great for a left fielder particularly in the juiced ball era, and while he had a good walk rate he had very mediocre power (.154 ISO) and only ended up with a .776 OPS. The 20 SB all added up to being just slightly above average on the basepaths last season. He hasn't been bad at any aspect of the game, but he also hasn't been great at any of them either. Guys who sell tickets generally have something that stands out about them and there's nothing that stands out about Benintendi thus far. There's nothing that exciting about a LF who has been league average in pretty much every aspect of the game. This year he's showing even less power so far and is making some of the weakest contact of any hitter in the MLB (average exit velocity of 84 mph). Of course like with Moncada it's way too early to judge him but it's a massive stretch to say that Benintendi has been a stud. IMO his stock is clearly down from what it was a year ago.

Edited by OmarComing25

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QUOTE (StrykerSox @ Apr 9, 2018 -> 11:58 PM)
I'm beating a dead horse here, but with his strikeout rate (which has been bonkers everywhere he's played) means his floor is TOTAL BUST. I cannot agree with assuming that, at worst, his floor is 4 WAR. He might cut down on the strikeouts, and he might succeed. That's totally possible. But we are setting ourselves up for disappointment if we look at him as a sure thing. He has a big flaw, and if you do the math, it's not hard to see how he fails.

 

700 PAs

x30% K-rate=210 Ks (his MLB K-rate is 34.5%; I'm factoring in some improvement, but not much, because his MiLB rate is around 25%)

x15% BB-rate=105 BBs (I'm improving this rate from 12% in MLB and 13% in MiLB)

Give him 20 HRs, 4 3Bs and 30 2Bs, and assume a BABiP of .345 (considering the point about exit velocity and FanGraph's suggestion that .345 indicates "batter is above average in this aspect of the game and is probably making better contact on average than most").

This produces a BA of .245, an OBP of .357, an SLG of .413 and an OPS of .770.

 

If you adjust his BABiP to .380, which FG describes as "virtually impossible", his OPS rises to .828.

 

That's with a number of generous assumptions. And .770 may look nice enough, but like you mentioned, this is what we got for Chris freaking Sale. He needs to not just be an MLB starter; he needs to be a star or the FO has failed. People often suggest he's the next Robinson Cano (.849 career OPS). I've heard that he should be better than Ray-Ray (.788 career OPS). Sounds great- but he's not there yet.

 

I do not want him to fail (that was suggested to me the other day- I've rooted for this team since 1992, when I was 5, thanks). I want him to be great. But there's a chance he won't be, and frankly, that is a big chance. He needs to stop striking out. It could happen. Kris Bryant dropped from 30% to 19% in three years (improving past his 26% in MiLB). But it may not- Miguel Sano has never budged from around 35%. If Moncada can pull a Bryant in the K category, he can absolutely be what we need him to be. But if he stays idle like Sano, we lost this trade. Period.

 

His K rate will drop. He's 23, he has a lot of time for that to happen.

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21 k’s in 53 pa’s.

 

Granted, he got screwed yesterday his first at-bat should have 9 walks/20 k’s), but 20 in 53 is still 38%.

 

Guess we have to shoot for 30-33% rate this year and hope for 27.5-30% in 2019.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 05:21 PM)
21 k’s in 53 pa’s.

 

Granted, he got screwed yesterday his first at-bat should have 9 walks/20 k’s), but 20 in 53 is still 38%.

 

Guess we have to shoot for 30-33% rate this year and hope for 27.5-30% in 2019.

Weren’t you the conductor of the “Moncada is fine” train? What changed?

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QUOTE (soxfan49 @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 04:24 PM)
Weren’t you the conductor of the “Moncada is fine” train? What changed?

 

Nothing.

 

As long as his OPS at the end of the year is between 750 and 787.5, that will be enough for this year as long as his defense is sound.

 

Others will go with wrc+.

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It's not just his approach he was absolutely pulling off the ball today, as badly as I've seen him in Chicago. Front side flailing open and a lot of head movement.

 

I really do think he should give up switch hitting. I don't think he can get into a good rhythm up there constantly switching sides. He's a natural lefty swinger. Just face lefties as a lefty.

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QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 11:46 PM)
I think we need to take him out of the lead off spot. I guess you put Anderson up there or Sanchez/L. Garcia

 

This.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 10, 2018 -> 07:51 AM)
And in 2019 and 2020 the White Sox have the potential to be substantially better than the Red Sox and competing for the playoffs, if Moncada is the kind of player he can be.

 

I just dont see how you can honestly say that the Sox have the chance to be substantially better than Boston, that doesn't even make sense. 2020 *maybe* better but that's a long shot

 

this rebuild is gonna take longer than you guys think. barring two major FA signings I just dont see it.

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QUOTE (Real @ Apr 12, 2018 -> 07:54 AM)
I just dont see how you can honestly say that the Sox have the chance to be substantially better than Boston, that doesn't even make sense. 2020 *maybe* better but that's a long shot

 

this rebuild is gonna take longer than you guys think. barring two major FA signings I just dont see it.

 

No way. First we don't and won't have anyone close to a #1 like Sale( unless we trade for him) in 2018 or 19. Maybe in 2020. Boston is loaded w young players who already have or are getting MLB experience. Their outfield, 3rd-SS and C are all young. Hopefully they continue to struggle developing young starting pitchers. Their bullpen is really good. Cora is obviously questionable but so is Renteria.

 

Maybe we catch them in 2021 and in the year 2025 if man is still alive...............

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Remove Price and Kimbrel (to Chisox).

 

Rodon

Jimenez

Moncada

Kopech

Robert...all become consistent 3-5 fWAR performers.

 

Hansen or Cease need to be studs too...at least one of them.

 

 

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QUOTE (SCCWS @ Apr 12, 2018 -> 07:39 AM)
No way. First we don't and won't have anyone close to a #1 like Sale( unless we trade for him) in 2018 or 19. Maybe in 2020. Boston is loaded w young players who already have or are getting MLB experience. Their outfield, 3rd-SS and C are all young. Hopefully they continue to struggle developing young starting pitchers. Their bullpen is really good. Cora is obviously questionable but so is Renteria.

 

Maybe we catch them in 2021 and in the year 2025 if man is still alive...............

Who is the #1 in 2020? I’d argue Kopech has a non-zero chance of being a #1 starter in 2019 if he gets a good four months of seasoning this year. Rodon could be a solid #2 next year if healthy (big if I know). Giolito & Lopez should hopefully be damn good #3 & #4 starters. Even if there is no true ace next year while Kopech developing, the rotation should be pretty good. I’m more concerned about the positional side at the moment. Moncada will have to take that next step and Jimenez will have be pretty awesome from the get-go for us to more than a 2nd wild card contender next year.

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Nothing states that an organization has confidence in you like telling you to quit switchhitting or taking you out of the lead off spot in the second week of the season.

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As long as Moncada is fine mentally at the leadoff spot then I am fine with him there this year. Get him as many AB's in a pointless year.

Based on a few quotes from him earlier in the week seems like he is still confident. I think you don't change a thing until at least 30-40 games in a season like this. Let him get comfortable, let it warm up. Let this team find its groove.

 

The only players that should have any pressure are bullpen guys and players that are being pushed by organizational depth... and even at that, look at Cordell/Tilson start in AAA.

 

Let it ride.

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