Fangraphs not optimistic on Anderson's bat

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I don't see how anyone can come to any conclusion that Tim Anderson won't be a decent hitter based on where he is in his career and 2016 numbers. TBH, his numbers were a lot better than I thought they would be. Sure, he could be a guy like Avi who had a nice run with the bat but it wasn't sustainable, or he could be a guy that develops. If his walk and k rate remain the same, Fangraphs has a point. If he adjusts, it's silly talk.

Agreed. From what I saw, the ball jumped off his bat.

[reiks12]

I might be completely wrong but isn't it a bit premature to analyze (or in fangraphs case, anal-ize) a rookie who is making adjustments and learning? How would fangraphs approach Beckham's rookie season? We are all aware about how his career ended up.

[TheFutureIsNear]

There's definitely legitimate reason not to be too optimistic about Anderson. But as others have said he's still very young and raw into his baseball career. And there were at least small signs of life at the end of last year as well. I'm not sure he'll be an all-star type player or even top of the order hitter, but that doesn't mean he still be a very useful player. My comp for a while had been Erick Aybar with a little more pop.

[BlackSox13]

Iirc, similar things were said about Alexei and he turned out just fine. Heck, Alexei even learned how to draw more walks. The Sox are rebuilding, Anderson is just 23 years old and I see nothing to be worried about at this point.

[Rowand44]

Im not high on Anderson, either. I think he's just another strikeout commando, which will lead him to peak as a middle infield bench player. Sure, he can catch, and he can run. But that will mean exactly Jack and s*** if he can't get on base.

 

 

I absolutely HATE this moronic idea that speedy strikeout commandos should be batted high in the order. Nothing about his game suggests that he'll ever be able to get on base enough to EARN the leadoff spot.

 

Of course, this means that this stupid organization will bat him first as he Ks his way to a craptacular .280 OBP, which will hurt the entire lineup, & the trade prospects for everyone else in it.

Is commando the new hero worshipping?

[caulfield12]

If Anderson can continue to play that type of defense, it's worth 2-2.5 war alone.

 

On the list of Sox problems, he's not in the Top Ten.

[Jerksticks]

^^^I'm still in awe with how incredible that defense was last year too. It wasn't passable, it wasn't good, it wasn't great...it was freaking incredible! He's a better defender than Addison Russell and it's not really close to the eye test. Never would have projected that in a million years. His offensive game is kind of old school and I'm looking for him to hold his mud this year and maybe break out in 2018.

[Dam8610]

^^^I'm still in awe with how incredible that defense was last year too. It wasn't passable, it wasn't good, it wasn't great...it was freaking incredible! He's a better defender than Addison Russell and it's not really close to the eye test. Never would have projected that in a million years. His offensive game is kind of old school and I'm looking for him to hold his mud this year and maybe break out in 2018.

 

If his pattern on his path through MiLB continues, his breakout campaign will be 2017.

 

[BlackSox13]

I serious think Jimmy Rollins deserves some credit for helping Anderson with his defense. From what I recall Anderson said he had learned alot from Rollins, especially footwork.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Im not high on Anderson, either. I think he's just another strikeout commando, which will lead him to peak as a middle infield bench player. Sure, he can catch, and he can run. But that will mean exactly Jack and s*** if he can't get on base.

 

 

I absolutely HATE this moronic idea that speedy strikeout commandos should be batted high in the order. Nothing about his game suggests that he'll ever be able to get on base enough to EARN the leadoff spot.

 

Of course, this means that this stupid organization will bat him first as he Ks his way to a craptacular .280 OBP, which will hurt the entire lineup, & the trade prospects for everyone else in it.

 

Trolling so hard...

[Eminor3rd]

Patience is one component, but the truly damning part of the data presented is the fact that he simply hasn't hit the ball as hard as average major leaguers.

[southsider2k5]

Iirc, similar things were said about Alexei and he turned out just fine. Heck, Alexei even learned how to draw more walks. The Sox are rebuilding, Anderson is just 23 years old and I see nothing to be worried about at this point.

 

I actually like the Alexei comp for TA at the plate. Both were very long levered. Long arms, long legs, long swings. But both have such quick hands to make up for it, and turn it into surprising power when they make contact.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Trolling so hard...

Not at all. Did you bother to read the fangraphs piece in the original post? Did you read (in horror) his crappy K rates and BB rates? Did you see his O-swing and swing % rates?

 

Im guessing that you didn't.

 

In any case, I certainly hope im wrong about Anderson. But I think many here have an irrational exuberance about him, simply because he didn't s*** his pants once he was called up. I'll agree that he's much more promising than the overarching majority of position players from the Laumann/Capra era.

 

But there is real downside risk to him regressing, based on what he's been in MiLB, IMO & in Fangraphs opinion.

Edited December 11, 2016 by Two-Gun Pete

[tray]

Yeah, I'm not crazy high on Anderson. I think he can be an average major league regular, which is a coup for the Sox considering their track record in developing position players, but I think it's misguided to talk about him as a future star.

 

I guess you haven't watched too many Sox games then. Anderson has tremendous speed on the bases. A double for most other major leaguers is often a triple for him. It is a thrill to see him go from first to third.

He has had a lot of strike-out primarily because of his aggressiveness. He can easily change his approach and cut down on K's.

Tim has unbelievable range and has made some spectacular throws from deep in the hole between short and third. He also has rare power for a speedy shortstop.

Tim Anderson is a future star and will be better than addison russell.

 

[username]

This take on Tim is painfully stupid in a manner of ways"

 

1) I'm really not a fan of the author's methodology here. He acknowledges that speedy players are inherently penalized by things like GB%, and doesn't compensate for it. AND, only 3 shortstops received contact ratings above 100, so it's clearly an issue that plagues gauging shortstops systemically.

 

2) He totally discounts Anderson's hard contact %. While trajectory/launch angle can be controlled to an extent, to my knowledge they aren't always consistent. Trajectory/launch angle is something that players work on all the time - look at Kris Bryant this past year. I'm much more concerned with the notion that Anderson, on the whole, was hitting the ball hard. Looking at his hard/medium contact rates they're off the charts (above Lindor), which fits exactly what we all observed from him during the season.

 

3) Anderson's strikeout problems began to wane over the course of the year, and I'm willing to bet they continue to drop below 25%. Further, his BB% has always risen as he spends more time at a level, which is exactly what happened as the year wore on. He'll never walk a great deal, but a guy like Alexei with worse hard/medium contact rates was able to have some awesome years despite it.

 

4) Anderson is clearly developing more power. His HR/FB rate is likely to rise as he continues to mature, and his hard contact rate combined with a bit more loft in his swing could cause these numbers to greatly jump. Power jumps are far from unprecedented with guys like Tim.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Iirc, similar things were said about Alexei and he turned out just fine. Heck, Alexei even learned how to draw more walks. The Sox are rebuilding, Anderson is just 23 years old and I see nothing to be worried about at this point.

It's often difficult for an old guy like me to participate in conversations regarding baseball because it seems so much of it is projection and analysis by strictly looking at numbers. And the truth is there is so much info out there I'm not sure that these writers even know how to analyze it all yet or if they even can at all given how players often overcome obstacles to rise to the top.

 

The fun of baseball is that I can optimistically watch young players on my favorite team and look forward to seeing then in an All Star game or playoff games at some point or simply to just enjoy a big hit in a big moment or a spectacular fielding play.

 

Needlessly worrying about numbers ruins all the fun. There is a wide range of opinions when looking at all those numbers. I am reminded of this when I see someone like Bill James, the father of Sabermetrics, ranking Melky Cabrera #5 among the top 10 left fielders in baseball when no one else on the panel had him on their top 10 lists at all.

[Dominikk85]

There is some reason for concern, not just the walk rate but also the high k not so great power combination. Last year he had a 95 wrc+ but on the strength of a 375 babip. If that regressed to league average it could get ugly. As I said I believe he does more power in him if he increases his launch angle. He does have a bit of pop (almost league average ev) but his launch angle is 3 to 4 degrees below league average.

 

His strikeouts have a little room for improvement too, although even with an improved patience his in the zone contact rate does not point to a better than around 23 percent know rate.

 

But if he increases his walks to 6%, lowers Ks to 23% and increases iso to 160 which I think is realistic he could become a league average hitter which in combination with his defense would be a really solid well above average shortstop.

 

But he does still have some work to do because his babip is not going to stay as high.

[Panerista]

If Anderson can continue to play that type of defense, it's worth 2-2.5 war alone.

 

On the list of Sox problems, he's not in the Top Ten.

If he prevents the White Sox from acquiring shortstops, he becomes a bigger and bigger problem. I'm not saying he'll be good or bad, but Hahn cannot settle for Tim Anderson as the shortstop of the future based on the data he has now.

[Dominikk85]

If he prevents the White Sox from acquiring shortstops, he becomes a bigger and bigger problem. I'm not saying he'll be good or bad, but Hahn cannot settle for Tim Anderson as the shortstop of the future based on the data he has now.

 

Well I hope he starts to get a couple more shortstop prospects and then later figure out who plays short, second and third.

[Panerista]

Well I hope he starts to get a couple more shortstop prospects and then later figure out who plays short, second and third.

Agreed. There are no permanent fixtures on this team. I like TA, but I'm not going to buy a jersey of anyone on the team as currently constructed because anything is possible.

[GreenSox]

If Anderson can continue to play that type of defense, it's worth 2-2.5 war alone.

 

On the list of Sox problems, he's not in the Top Ten.

Depends on how you look at it. Anderson has the raw talent to be a 4 war player; Developing a team full of those types is the point of the rebuild.

Squandering Anderson's potential for the sake of the "we're still in it" Williams/Hahn fantasy land of 2016 would be costly indeed. It's tougher to break habits in the majors. Let's hope he can.

Edited January 28, 2017 by GreenSox

[username]

There is some reason for concern, not just the walk rate but also the high k not so great power combination. Last year he had a 95 wrc+ but on the strength of a 375 babip. If that regressed to league average it could get ugly. As I said I believe he does more power in him if he increases his launch angle. He does have a bit of pop (almost league average ev) but his launch angle is 3 to 4 degrees below league average.

 

His strikeouts have a little room for improvement too, although even with an improved patience his in the zone contact rate does not point to a better than around 23 percent know rate.

 

But if he increases his walks to 6%, lowers Ks to 23% and increases iso to 160 which I think is realistic he could become a league average hitter which in combination with his defense would be a really solid well above average shortstop.

 

But he does still have some work to do because his babip is not going to stay as high.

 

.375 is quite high, but he's likely to continue to post above league average BABIP numbers. High speed, hard contact guys are the exact type of players that tend to generate a higher % of hits on balls in play.

 

I think you're right in that he'll probably never get his K rate below 20%. But a slightly above league average hitter with good defense and baserunning is likely a perennial 4 WAR guy at short.