JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 I’ve asked this question in a few other threads but thought it deserved it’s own. What are your guesses on the trade value of Sox starting pitchers as we approach the trade deadline? Of course this assumes good health, which is a big assumption for any pitcher these days, but for the sake of discussion let’s assume that. Here are my guesses: Crochet - one 55 FV prospect + two 45/50 FV prospects Crochet’s trade value might be the biggest mystery of all as I could easily see him returning a Cease type package given his young age, incredible stuff, and cheap team control thru 2026. There are obvious risks though, primarily his health, but if he maintains his current dominant form and stays healthy the sky is the limit. I can see a team like the Dodgers being very interested in Crochet this July. Fedde - one 45/50 FV prospect + a flier prospect So far, Fedde’s new and improved repertoire has translated from KBO to MLB. It’s still very early but if he maintains a mid 3’s ERA into July I think a 2023 Lorenzen type return for him is reasonable. I can see a team like the Orioles being interested because I think their rotation will need outside reinforcements this summer but they’re too stingy to pursue high end pitching and unload any of their top prospects. Soroka - a couple flier prospects He isn’t the pitcher he once was due to injury but he has value as a 5th starter and/or long relief arm especially for the cost (both in dollars and prospect value for acquiring team) Flexen / Clevinger - no trade value (if lucky, traded for cash considerations) What are your thoughts? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Crochet has mad 3 starts so its really premature to fix a value to him. He also is going to be limited this season, so again its hard to gauge exactly what he could be worth. I think if he can keep it up, you can get way more for him in the offseason as opposed to in season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 (edited) 16 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: I’ve asked this question in a few other threads but thought it deserved it’s own. What are your guesses on the trade value of Sox starting pitchers as we approach the trade deadline? Of course this assumes good health, which is a big assumption for any pitcher these days, but for the sake of discussion let’s assume that. Here are my guesses: Crochet - one 55 FV prospect + two 45/50 FV prospects Crochet’s trade value might be the biggest mystery of all as I could easily see him returning a Cease type package given his young age, incredible stuff, and cheap team control thru 2026. There are obvious risks though, primarily his health, but if he maintains his current dominant form and stays healthy the sky is the limit. I can see a team like the Dodgers being very interested in Crochet this July. Fedde - one 45/50 FV prospect + a flier prospect So far, Fedde’s new and improved repertoire has translated from KBO to MLB. It’s still very early but if he maintains a mid 3’s ERA into July I think a 2023 Lorenzen type return for him is reasonable. I can see a team like the Orioles being interested because I think their rotation will need outside reinforcements this summer but they’re too stingy to pursue high end pitching and unload any of their top prospects. Soroka - a couple flier prospects He isn’t the pitcher he once was due to injury but he has value as a 5th starter and/or long relief arm especially for the cost (both in dollars and prospect value for acquiring team) Flexen / Clevinger - no trade value (if lucky, traded for cash considerations) What are your thoughts? Crochet - one 50FV and one 45FV. That would be like an Ramos and Wolcow type deal (seems high still). I think you are wayyy over on him right now. Your Crochet deal is practically what we just got for Cease. The rest are nothing burgers or fliers (right now) Edited April 9 by Squirmin' for Yermin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 No thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 I can't see Crochet having much value to a team at the deadline. IF he makes it to July, which is a big if, you can't expect much out of him down the stretch given the innings he would have on his arm this season. If everything goes well, he'd have more value in the offseason, IMO. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 44 minutes ago, Tony said: I can't see Crochet having much value to a team at the deadline. IF he makes it to July, which is a big if, you can't expect much out of him down the stretch given the innings he would have on his arm this season. If everything goes well, he'd have more value in the offseason, IMO. I think it would require a team like the Dodgers to be involved since they are a team that thinks outside the box. They’d probably be the best team to manage his innings until October and then can use him as an opener in the 3rd or 4th slot in the playoffs. I know they will have some starting pitchers returning from injury later this year but I’m not sure how they feel comfortable with that rotation. A lot of question marks still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 1 hour ago, T R U said: Crochet has mad 3 starts so its really premature to fix a value to him. He also is going to be limited this season, so again its hard to gauge exactly what he could be worth. I think if he can keep it up, you can get way more for him in the offseason as opposed to in season. Why would he have more value in the offseason than in July? Presumably, he won’t throw a ton of innings in August/September so it’s not like he will be building his value further in those months. There will be far less pitching available in July than there will be in the offseason. We already went thru this with Cease and next offseason has even more available quality free agent starting pitching than this past offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusty_Kuntz Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 None of them have any trade value past maybe a flier for Fedde. Crochet probably will for the long term but he's not going to hold any value for this year because he's going to have to be shut down. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 14 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Why would he have more value in the offseason than in July? Presumably, he won’t throw a ton of innings in August/September so it’s not like he will be building his value further in those months. There will be far less pitching available in July than there will be in the offseason. We already went thru this with Cease and next offseason has even more available quality free agent starting pitching than this past offseason. Because it’s obvious that the Sox have no qualms about running Crochet into the ground. He’s at 18 innings already. He will likely be at his innings limit by the trade deadline. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 16 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Because it’s obvious that the Sox have no qualms about running Crochet into the ground. He’s at 18 innings already. He will likely be at his innings limit by the trade deadline. What’s his innings limit? 100? 120? 150? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 13 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: What’s his innings limit? 100? 120? 150? 80-100 would be my guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 5 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: 80-100 would be my guess So they’re going to shut him down in early July? That would be surprising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: So they’re going to shut him down in early July? That would be surprising. I imagine they do a lot of "skipped starts", maybe a few phantom DL stints. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 My best guess for people the Sox might be able to trade for real value - under certain conditions: Fedde - If he is pitching well - he will be attractive given his contract and fact a team would have him for another year. Kopech - If he is showing off as a dynamic reliever - I think the Sox can get real value for him. If he is just meh, nothing, but if he's actually looking dynamic out of the pen as a 1-2 inning closer/legit weapon, yeah I think they can get some serious value at the deadline. Moncada - Expiring - so if he is playing well and healthy - I think we could be surprised and he certainly has it in him in a contract year to put up. Not saying you are getting a high end prospect but you could get some raw talent and/or a piece and some international money or something like that. Clevinger - He's cheap, no option connected, and if he actually pitches well (say another year removed from injury he is better than he was last year (say the FIP matches the ERA and is mid 3's - not saying I would predict it but its certainly possible), I do think at the deadline you would see a team give up something of value for him (not saying some Top 100 guy but I think a productive Clevinger will be more valuable than we think this deadline vs. last (last deadline the option, coming off the DL, and still pretty fresh from all the headline news). The above I know is an out there view - but at deadline if a bunch of teams are in the mix and have some injuries in the rotation, having someone who can take the ball - to some extent even a benefit that he starts the year a month late (so he'll have a bit more left on his arm for a stretch run). If I squint: Eloy - There probably is some alternate universe where he comes back from this abbductor injury and actually stays healthy and puts up an .850-.900 OPS. If that happens - I suppose you might get a team looking for a bat who makes a deal. BUT you aren't going to get much given that injury history. Soroka - I suppose there is a world where Soroka ends up being better than I think and you can get a raw player or someone in a 40 man roster crunch. That's it - I don't see anyone else tradeable (for anything other than say a bag of balls). I'm ignoring Robert cause I can't imagine you get maximum value for him at the deadline if he's coming back from injury and same with Crochet. If he is approaching his innings limit and pitching well - I don't know that a team would give you the value it would take to make that move. Note: Above also tells you why this team is so bad. I mean the whole roster is basically filled with nothing burgers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 I think De Bong could have a C+ and A ball lotto ticket type return assuming he's doing his 2 WAR thing come July. But yea, we have very little in turns of high end assets and certainly nothing like the Sale and Q contracts that jumpstarted the now failed rebuilt last time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said: My best guess for people the Sox might be able to trade for real value - under certain conditions: Fedde - If he is pitching well - he will be attractive given his contract and fact a team would have him for another year. Kopech - If he is showing off as a dynamic reliever - I think the Sox can get real value for him. If he is just meh, nothing, but if he's actually looking dynamic out of the pen as a 1-2 inning closer/legit weapon, yeah I think they can get some serious value at the deadline. Moncada - Expiring - so if he is playing well and healthy - I think we could be surprised and he certainly has it in him in a contract year to put up. Not saying you are getting a high end prospect but you could get some raw talent and/or a piece and some international money or something like that. Clevinger - He's cheap, no option connected, and if he actually pitches well (say another year removed from injury he is better than he was last year (say the FIP matches the ERA and is mid 3's - not saying I would predict it but its certainly possible), I do think at the deadline you would see a team give up something of value for him (not saying some Top 100 guy but I think a productive Clevinger will be more valuable than we think this deadline vs. last (last deadline the option, coming off the DL, and still pretty fresh from all the headline news). The above I know is an out there view - but at deadline if a bunch of teams are in the mix and have some injuries in the rotation, having someone who can take the ball - to some extent even a benefit that he starts the year a month late (so he'll have a bit more left on his arm for a stretch run). If I squint: Eloy - There probably is some alternate universe where he comes back from this abbductor injury and actually stays healthy and puts up an .850-.900 OPS. If that happens - I suppose you might get a team looking for a bat who makes a deal. BUT you aren't going to get much given that injury history. Soroka - I suppose there is a world where Soroka ends up being better than I think and you can get a raw player or someone in a 40 man roster crunch. That's it - I don't see anyone else tradeable (for anything other than say a bag of balls). I'm ignoring Robert cause I can't imagine you get maximum value for him at the deadline if he's coming back from injury and same with Crochet. If he is approaching his innings limit and pitching well - I don't know that a team would give you the value it would take to make that move. Note: Above also tells you why this team is so bad. I mean the whole roster is basically filled with nothing burgers. I think Steven Wilson will have more trade value than Kopech. I’m thinking they could get a 40/45 FV prospect for him in a few months. Edited April 9 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 13 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: I think Steven Wilson will have more trade value than Kopech. I’m thinking they could get a 40/45 FV prospect for him in a few months. Oh yea good point. I keep forgetting that guy probably because he's named Steven Wilson. That was a good job by Getz (yuck) getting him in the Cease deal as he'll provide some immediate return this summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: I imagine they do a lot of "skipped starts", maybe a few phantom DL stints. Skipped starts, phantom IL, scheduled shorter starts maybe. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 3 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Why would he have more value in the offseason than in July? Presumably, he won’t throw a ton of innings in August/September so it’s not like he will be building his value further in those months. There will be far less pitching available in July than there will be in the offseason. We already went thru this with Cease and next offseason has even more available quality free agent starting pitching than this past offseason. Because he is 100% going to get injured or shut down at some point towards the later part of the season. Hes thrown 25 innings since 2021 you just can't show up and throw 175-200 innings when you have been a reliever your entire career AND injured/recovering over the last season. The White Sox have made it pretty clear they are going to run him into the ground and not ease him into a starters role. Its inevitable that he will not be available at the end of the year. Having said that, if he can get around that 100 innings mark then he is probably in a good position to start pushing 150 or so next season which becomes way more enticing to a team trying to acquire him. Why would a team give up a high level package for him at the deadline if they can't use him down the stretch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 14 minutes ago, T R U said: Because he is 100% going to get injured or shut down at some point towards the later part of the season. Hes thrown 25 innings since 2021 you just can't show up and throw 175-200 innings when you have been a reliever your entire career AND injured/recovering over the last season. The White Sox have made it pretty clear they are going to run him into the ground and not ease him into a starters role. Its inevitable that he will not be available at the end of the year. Having said that, if he can get around that 100 innings mark then he is probably in a good position to start pushing 150 or so next season which becomes way more enticing to a team trying to acquire him. Why would a team give up a high level package for him at the deadline if they can't use him down the stretch? If he’s at 100 innings in July, you don’t think a team can manage his innings over the final two months and have him start 1 or more games in the postseason? Why is 100 innings the magical number? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: If he’s at 100 innings in July, you don’t think a team can manage his innings over the final two months and have him start 1 or more games in the postseason? Why is 100 innings the magical number? I don't know what the magic number is, but common sense would say that a reliever trying to transition to a starter who hasn't thrown more than 25 innings in 2 years probably isn't going to have a long leash. At least for THIS season, which is why I think if he looks good in his innings this year he becomes way more attractive in the off-season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusty_Kuntz Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Why would a team give up assets for someone who they may not be able to play, or play effectively, at the trade deadline this year if they can get someone who will be? Most teams make deadline acquisitions for a playoff run. Crochet really doesn't fit that bill even if he can give a start or two here or there. That's not really what teams are looking for at that point. That said if he has a successful and healthy 100 or so innings this year, he should be quite valuable moving forward this offseason or next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 1 hour ago, T R U said: I don't know what the magic number is, but common sense would say that a reliever trying to transition to a starter who hasn't thrown more than 25 innings in 2 years probably isn't going to have a long leash. At least for THIS season, which is why I think if he looks good in his innings this year he becomes way more attractive in the off-season. I just don’t see how he’d look more attractive in the offseason compared to July. If we are assuming he’s hitting his innings limit in July and pitches very little to not at all the rest of this season, he isn’t continuing to build trade value in august and September but he is gaining additional service time thereby reducing the acquiring team’s control over him. Are you saying that starting pitching is valued more highly in the offseason versus the trade deadline? I thought we already went thru this with Cease and I don’t think that theory played out to be true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 I think we need another thread trying to predict the future. I don't mind if you're asking to predict how a rookie season might go like long ago about Jose Abreu , but asking predicting the trade value of multiple pitchers trying to return to former glories and glories that have never been achieved in 3 months is an exercise in futility. We'll see what happens when or if they get there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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