Princess Dye Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 If the Sox spent $20M on someone this summer it would be someone who doesnt care about winning or is trying to revive their career. So hey, just spend it on Luis then! Same deal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 10 minutes ago, Quin said: What I don't understand is the notion that no one can meet Roberts' price, so the Sox will hold him until someone can afford him. Here's my second level of thinking. Trade value can tend to ebb and flow over time. If you have a guy who you feel has the ability to be worth more in a year, it might be worth holding on to to see if they rebound. A guy like Dylan Cease was a more interesting bet for a rebound year because not only had he had a career year recently (say like Robert) but he had a great health history and always took the ball every 5 days as a starter (unlike like Robert's health history). I also don't recall anyone talking about Cease's work ethic and/or coachability (again, unlike Robert). I get the urge to simplify this as why would you think it for one person, and not another, but quite literally you are betting on something that has some externalities which should adjust the odds of improvement or continued decline. Is it worth $20 million to again bet on Luis Robert being relatively healthy for a second year in a row (which has literally never happened since he was 18) as well as overcoming whatever it is that has led to his decline (whether it is mental, work ethic, diminished skills, uncoachable, bad luck, or whatever) so that he improves enough to bounce back to some mythical, but undefined, level of value? I tend to be in the "Those who do not learn from their history are doomed to repeat it" camp, but to each his own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiderman Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Which young players would you give playing time to? Guys who can’t even hit in Charlotte? The reality is we have no young players to give the playing time to other than Baldwin. Hopefully that changes very soon, but having a couple veterans who can provide some lineup stability has value. I'm really hoping they value adding meaningful veterans to this lineup beginning this off-season. The young players will likely benefit from better hitters around them in the lineup. Teel/Querto (C/DH) Vargas (3B / 1B) Meidroth (2B/SS) Montgomery (SS/3B) Benintendi (LF) Robert (CF) ** (likely moving on) are all likely here next season in some form, but adding OF, exploring 3B/1B should be priorities. They shouldn't sign a 34 year hitter, I'm talking about someone who they expect to contribute for the next 4-5 seasons. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Which young players would you give playing time to? Guys who can’t even hit in Charlotte? The reality is we have no young players to give the playing time to other than Baldwin. Hopefully that changes very soon, but having a couple veterans who can provide some lineup stability has value. Benintendi LF, Baldwin CF, sign a stop gap RF in offseason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 9 minutes ago, spiderman said: Is $20M considered to be overpaid for a light hitting, plus defensive player with upside potential (but also a constant injury risk who needs to be managed? What would Robert get on the open market? His xwOBA is basically league average right now…unfortunately his wOBA has not fully normalized yet but we are seeing that happening right now. This idea that he is a bad hitter is wrong. He is certainly flawed, but when healthy, he is an average or better offensive player who plays a premium position and adds value on the bases. I too am ready to move on from the player given his past health issues and general streakiness, but holding him into next season isn’t a terrible idea if no one is willing to even give us a 45 FV prospect for him. It’s a gamble no doubt, but one that might be worth taking on. I’m still hopeful someone will pay up before the deadline and this point all becomes mute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy Harold Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 same tweet but added that the Padres are interested as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: His xwOBA is basically league average right now…unfortunately his wOBA has not fully normalized yet but we are seeing that happening right now. This idea that he is a bad hitter is wrong. He is certainly flawed, but when healthy, he is an average or better offensive player who plays a premium position and adds value on the bases. I too am ready to move on from the player given his past health issues and general streakiness, but holding him into next season isn’t a terrible idea if no one is willing to even give us a 45 FV prospect for him. It’s a gamble no doubt, but one that might be worth taking on. I’m still hopeful someone will pay up before the deadline and this point all becomes mute. But also, at a minimum, a team acquiring Robert is paying the remaining balance of his $15 million dollar contract along with a $2 million dollar buyout after the season, unless Jerry allows Getz to include a good deal of cash. His production this year doesn’t exactly make that look like a steal. Would be awesome if Jerry allowed Getz to include the money for his remaining contract and the $2 million dollar buyout. I’m sure the offers would be much better if that was the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said: same tweet but added that the Padres are interested as well This is so much BS. I can’t even believe teams are buying this crap. Getz dealt both Cease and Crochet earlier than he had to. What GM is buying this garbage? I hate the term “posturing” since it’s overused so much, but Getz has zero poker face in this situation. 🤣 Let’s cut the BS reports to the media and admit he’s on the block. Let the rival teams targeting Robert up the ante on what is offered for him. Edited July 29 by WhiteSox2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hogan873 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 I'm slightly warming to the idea of holding on to Robert and picking up the option if they don't get the right return. Robert has been more healthy this year, and his offense has improved quite a bit lately. He's a very good defender and can run the bases well. Because of those things, though, I would be surprised if some team does not step up and offer something the Sox will accept. But I'll honestly not be terribly upset if he sticks around. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 10 minutes ago, hogan873 said: I'm slightly warming to the idea of holding on to Robert and picking up the option if they don't get the right return. Robert has been more healthy this year, and his offense has improved quite a bit lately. He's a very good defender and can run the bases well. Because of those things, though, I would be surprised if some team does not step up and offer something the Sox will accept. But I'll honestly not be terribly upset if he sticks around. Dude would likely go down for a season-ending injury in ST right after Getz picked up his option. The risk of injury and underperformance (yet again) is far too high. I can’t see Jerry assuming that risk for $20 million dollars for this specific player regardless of what the payroll is next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 9 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: But also, at a minimum, a team acquiring Robert is paying the remaining balance of his $15 million dollar contract along with a $2 million dollar buyout after the season, unless Jerry allows Getz to include a good deal of cash. His production this year doesn’t exactly make that look like a steal. Would be awesome if Jerry allowed Getz to include the money for his remaining contract and the $2 million dollar buyout. I’m sure the offers would be much better if that was the case. The rumors are they are willing to give cash. Regardless, trade deadline trades are much less made on the parameters of surplus value and more so on maximizing your chances of making the playoffs or making an extended October run. Robert is a wild card, but his potential impact is probably higher than almost anyone else available. If you’re the Mets or Phillies with a massive CF hole and an otherwise strong team, he’s the exact type of player you roll the dice on to enhance your post season chances IMO. If I were Stearns, I’d 100% be willing to give up a prospect like Clifford who comes with real question marks to have Robert for the stretch run and to also have the option to bring him back at a high, but not unreasonable cost if he keeps performing well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 17 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: This is so much BS. I can’t even believe teams are buying this crap. Getz dealt both Cease and Crochet earlier than he had to. What GM is buying this garbage? I hate the term “posturing” since it’s overused so much, but Getz has zero poker face in this situation. 🤣 Let’s cut the BS reports to the media and admit he’s on the block. Let the rival teams targeting Robert up the ante on what is offered for him. Where does it say he’s not on the block? They are just saying they won’t give him away, which may or may not be posturing. And with Crochet, they literally said the same thing at last year’s deadline and held despite a compelling offer from the Phillies. I still lean this is a bluff, but’s not an indefensible position if not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: The rumors are they are willing to give cash. Regardless, trade deadline trades are much less made on the parameters of surplus value and more so on maximizing your chances of making the playoffs or making an extended October run. Robert is a wild card, but his potential impact is probably higher than almost anyone else available. If you’re the Mets or Phillies with a massive CF hole and an otherwise strong team, he’s the exact type of player you roll the dice on to enhance your post season chances IMO. If I were Stearns, I’d 100% be willing to give up a prospect like Clifford who comes with real question marks to have Robert for the stretch run and to also have the option to bring him back at a high, but not unreasonable cost if he keeps performing well. I think the Mets would rather give up some of their OF prospect depth, especially a guy like Gilbert. I know the Sox need power and Clifford would make sense but he also makes sense for the Mets as his timeline to the majors would be right when Alonso’s contract expires (if he doesn’t opt out). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Where does it say he’s not on the block? They are just saying they won’t give him away, which may or may not be posturing. And with Crochet, they literally said the same thing at last year’s deadline and held despite a compelling offer from the Phillies. I still lean this is a bluff, but’s not an indefensible position if not. Sorry, I should have said that Robert will 100% be traded. That tweet is straight up BS. When all is said and done, the Sox will take the best offer for Robert, and it won’t match their unrealistic expectations. Picking up his $20 million dollar option is not even an option to them. They already know this. Edited July 29 by WhiteSox2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 48 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Here's my second level of thinking. Trade value can tend to ebb and flow over time. If you have a guy who you feel has the ability to be worth more in a year, it might be worth holding on to to see if they rebound. A guy like Dylan Cease was a more interesting bet for a rebound year because not only had he had a career year recently (say like Robert) but he had a great health history and always took the ball every 5 days as a starter (unlike like Robert's health history). I also don't recall anyone talking about Cease's work ethic and/or coachability (again, unlike Robert). I get the urge to simplify this as why would you think it for one person, and not another, but quite literally you are betting on something that has some externalities which should adjust the odds of improvement or continued decline. Is it worth $20 million to again bet on Luis Robert being relatively healthy for a second year in a row (which has literally never happened since he was 18) as well as overcoming whatever it is that has led to his decline (whether it is mental, work ethic, diminished skills, uncoachable, bad luck, or whatever) so that he improves enough to bounce back to some mythical, but undefined, level of value? I tend to be in the "Those who do not learn from their history are doomed to repeat it" camp, but to each his own. Hey! We agree on something. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Princess Dye Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 it will be funny if they pay Robert $20M for next year when they would not give Rodon a $18M QO that wasnt even gonna materialize (into anything except a free compensatory pick) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joejoesox Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 zero chance they pick up that option z.e.r.o. this is all posturing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joejoesox Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 9 minutes ago, Princess Dye said: it will be funny if they pay Robert $20M for next year when they would not give Rodon a $18M QO that wasnt even gonna materialize (into anything except a free compensatory pick) they won't, not happening 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 9 minutes ago, Princess Dye said: it will be funny if they pay Robert $20M for next year when they would not give Rodon a $18M QO that wasnt even gonna materialize (into anything except a free compensatory pick) You probably just provided further historical evidence of why they won’t pick up Robert’s $20 million dollar option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 41 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: His xwOBA is basically league average right now…unfortunately his wOBA has not fully normalized yet but we are seeing that happening right now. This idea that he is a bad hitter is wrong. He is certainly flawed, but when healthy, he is an average or better offensive player who plays a premium position and adds value on the bases. I too am ready to move on from the player given his past health issues and general streakiness, but holding him into next season isn’t a terrible idea if no one is willing to even give us a 45 FV prospect for him. It’s a gamble no doubt, but one that might be worth taking on. I’m still hopeful someone will pay up before the deadline and this point all becomes mute. It's interesting. His xWOBA is .321 with a .262 BABIP overall. The issue is that he's been atrocious vs RHP. He has a .241 BABIP vs righties but also a 46 wRC+ and .237 wOBA. He's murdered lefties with a 171 wRC+ and .418 wOBA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 11 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: You probably just provided further historical evidence of why they won’t pick up Robert’s $20 million dollar option. The only way they would pick it up is if they didn't trade him and he played like Aaron Judge the rest of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: The only way they would pick it up is if they didn't trade him and he played like Aaron Judge the rest of the season. Imagine Getz trying to convince Jerry to pick up Robert’s option? It would be like him trying to convince Jerry to invest in a timeshare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 45 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: His xwOBA is basically league average right now…unfortunately his wOBA has not fully normalized yet but we are seeing that happening right now. This idea that he is a bad hitter is wrong. He is certainly flawed, but when healthy, he is an average or better offensive player who plays a premium position and adds value on the bases. I too am ready to move on from the player given his past health issues and general streakiness, but holding him into next season isn’t a terrible idea if no one is willing to even give us a 45 FV prospect for him. It’s a gamble no doubt, but one that might be worth taking on. I’m still hopeful someone will pay up before the deadline and this point all becomes mute. 78 wRC+ this season, 84 wRC+ last season. He’s been the very definition of a below average hitter. Past 1-2/3 seasons combined he’s accumulated 1.1 fWAR. Oh, and then there’s the issue of him constantly getting injured. Sox need to move on; sunk cost fallacy to throw another $20M at this guy. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whisox05 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: Is it worth $20 million to again bet on Luis Robert being relatively healthy for a second year in a row (which has literally never happened since he was 18) as well as overcoming whatever it is that has led to his decline (whether it is mental, work ethic, diminished skills, uncoachable, bad luck, or whatever) so that he improves enough to bounce back to some mythical, but undefined, level of value? I tend to be in the "Those who do not learn from their history are doomed to repeat it" camp, but to each his own. That's a resounding no from me, and honestly the $ doesn't even matter. They really need to just move the f on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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