Snopek Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 5 hours ago, caulfield12 said: If you don't automatically support something 100% and pass the so-called loyalty test. Well, then you naturally must hate whatever IT is, instead of taking a more reasonable, nuanced position somewhere in the middle. It goes both ways. Below is an annoyingly common type of post here. 34 minutes ago, soxrwhite said: Genuine progress? Anyway you spin it, this is three (Three!!) 100 loss seasons in a row. I find it hard to celebrate anything at this point. It’s really not that hard to acknowledge progress without “celebrating.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 On 9/17/2025 at 7:16 PM, caulfield12 said: Projecting guys like Teel or Colson at 4-5 fWAR before they prove it first seems to be a foolhardy exercise. It's also a way to justify not making any major FA additions. Meidroth at 3.0, Vargas or Sosa gets up to 2-2.5, Quero or Baldwin make major improvements....we have been doing this same thing since 2022. Ignoring the eye test. Remember the board doing the same thing with Madrigal earlier in his career. Nobody would have believed that Kwan would be the best pro over Rutschman, Larnach, Conforto, all those OSU studs. Teel and Colson literally both project those WAR numbers right now, I don't understand your comment. Its happening, right now. Unless you assume a major drop off from both of them they are proving it. Teel has 2.0 fWAR through 70 games, Montgomery 1.9 fWAR through 62, in their rookie debuts. The bWAR numbers are even better for Colson. I don't see anything wrong having the expectation they can be 4 war players based off what we have seen so far, although Colson seems to be the one who may fall short on that if he doesn't make some adjustments. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 10 hours ago, Rounding_Third said: You must be joking right? Your attention span is limited so I'll repeat .500 since the all star break before this losing streak. Geesh! If you exclude the losing streaks, this is a great team! We aren't talking about a single game skewing stats here. This is a team that is 25-31 since the ASG, and closing in on their 3rd straight 100 loss season. Even if they avoid that history this is not a good baseball team, nor even a mediocre one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 1 hour ago, T R U said: Teel and Colson literally both project those WAR numbers right now, I don't understand your comment. Its happening, right now. Unless you assume a major drop off from both of them they are proving it. Teel has 2.0 fWAR through 70 games, Montgomery 1.9 fWAR through 62, in their rookie debuts. The bWAR numbers are even better for Colson. I don't see anything wrong having the expectation they can be 4 war players based off what we have seen so far, although Colson seems to be the one who may fall short on that if he doesn't make some adjustments. I would add that a rookie catcher should actually be giving extra time since the position requires a lot of effort on both offensive and defensive proficiency. For this season of 225 AB, he has shown very solid offensive number so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloydBannister1983 Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: If you exclude the losing streaks, this is a great team! We aren't talking about a single game skewing stats here. This is a team that is 25-31 since the ASG, and closing in on their 3rd straight 100 loss season. Even if they avoid that history this is not a good baseball team, nor even a mediocre one. If you throw out August they are 16-12, well above .500. Throw out August and the current six game losing streak and they are 16-6 since the All Star break, well above .700. They're practically the Dodgers and Yankees. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxrwhite Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 Just throw out every loss and they are undefeated! They are what they're record is....terrible. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 17 hours ago, soxrwhite said: Just throw out every loss and they are undefeated! They are what they're record is....terrible. You know it's bad when they're bragging about hot stretches of .440 baseball. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 Don't really like using the Orioles as an example because they're bad currently for reasons that might just as easily be our future (lack of spending, regression to key guys), but there was 'genuine progress' after 4 seasons that were as bad or worse than ours (covid season projected to 95 losses). They won 83 games with a 'young core', Adley's first full season and Gunnar playing half the season. Cedric Mullins in his first two full seasons compiling 10 WAR. Young players Jorge Mateo and Austin Hayes, Ramon Urias having good, not great, seasons. There were reasons for that fanbase to be optimistic despite losing 110 games. I think there are definite parallels between Colson/Teel and Gunnar/Adley. Jackson Holliday and Billy Carlson (or Bonemer if you prefer). Santander/Braden. Grayson Rodriguez/Kyle Bradish/Felix Bautista, Noah Schultz/Hagen Smith/Grant Taylor. The first two guys especially. The analogue isn't perfect, but I actually like our crop of prospects better especially at the lower end. There is more depth of potential impact MLB talent that will drip in over the next couple of years. Orioles won 101 games with their key internal guys and no payroll. I think we could be that good in 2027. Hopefully with some payroll, but we'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 9 hours ago, nrockway said: Don't really like using the Orioles as an example because they're bad currently for reasons that might just as easily be our future (lack of spending, regression to key guys), but there was 'genuine progress' after 4 seasons that were as bad or worse than ours (covid season projected to 95 losses). They won 83 games with a 'young core', Adley's first full season and Gunnar playing half the season. Cedric Mullins in his first two full seasons compiling 10 WAR. Young players Jorge Mateo and Austin Hayes, Ramon Urias having good, not great, seasons. There were reasons for that fanbase to be optimistic despite losing 110 games. I think there are definite parallels between Colson/Teel and Gunnar/Adley. Jackson Holliday and Billy Carlson (or Bonemer if you prefer). Santander/Braden. Grayson Rodriguez/Kyle Bradish/Felix Bautista, Noah Schultz/Hagen Smith/Grant Taylor. The first two guys especially. The analogue isn't perfect, but I actually like our crop of prospects better especially at the lower end. There is more depth of potential impact MLB talent that will drip in over the next couple of years. Orioles won 101 games with their key internal guys and no payroll. I think we could be that good in 2027. Hopefully with some payroll, but we'll see. We'll see if we even have a full season in 2027. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 (edited) 10 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said: We'll see if we even have a full season in 2027. You beat this drum, I'm not sure I agree, but I think you could change the 7 to an 8 and the point would stand. It might even be better if it's one year closer to the ownership handover...or just as bad in that sense as I suspect nothing will change with a new owner. I think tonight I will glance through the Orioles Talk forum and see what those guys were saying in 2021. Someone remind me of the username of that guy who came to troll this board about Joey Ortiz. Edited September 21 by nrockway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 1 hour ago, nrockway said: You beat this drum, I'm not sure I agree, but I think you could change the 7 to an 8 and the point would stand. It might even be better if it's one year closer to the ownership handover...or just as bad in that sense as I suspect nothing will change with a new owner. I think tonight I will glance through the Orioles Talk forum and see what those guys were saying in 2021. Someone remind me of the username of that guy who came to troll this board about Joey Ortiz. Owners are already demanding a cap. It’s not likely they play a full season if anything in 27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 15 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said: Owners are already demanding a cap. It’s not likely they play a full season if anything in 27 Everyone in this equation is making money hand over fist and probably do not want to stop the gravy train even for a second. I suspect the salary cap is just posturing and a position they will move away from. I mean, we'll see, but I think the owners have a memory of how bad lockouts can be for their bottom line. The last lockout, the last CBA, simply delayed the start of the season a couple of days. The previous lockout, 94-95, nearly destroyed MLB which they're still recovering from. I'm just speculating as I suppose we all are. I have no real insight and some on this board might. I personally think a salary cap/salary floor would be good for the game, as well as a shortened arbitration timeline and integration of the MILB union into the MLB one and higher salaries, better benefits for those guys. I think if MLB just copied the framework of NBA/NFL/NHL, there would be a lot more spending parity and players would still make a bunch of money. But the labor dispute involving millionaires and billionaires doesn't really focus on the quality of the game. Just my fan perspective. But I'd probably bet on a lockout not happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 On 9/19/2025 at 10:06 AM, FloydBannister1983 said: If you throw out August they are 16-12, well above .500. Throw out August and the current six game losing streak and they are 16-6 since the All Star break, well above .700. They're practically the Dodgers and Yankees. If we don't get to measure "genuine progress" from a given point forward, then there is no such thing as progress. It doesn't matter if a child starts walking and talking, because you're omitting all the failure before a certain point. And it certainly makes sense that you only measure a single player's development by the team's win-loss record that includes games they weren't even on the team for. God, I wish I was as smart as some of the big brains, here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 42 minutes ago, WestEddy said: If we don't get to measure "genuine progress" from a given point forward, then there is no such thing as progress. It doesn't matter if a child starts walking and talking, because you're omitting all the failure before a certain point. And it certainly makes sense that you only measure a single player's development by the team's win-loss record that includes games they weren't even on the team for. God, I wish I was as smart as some of the big brains, here. They are still an awful baseball team. Hopefully, they can just be bad next year, but that will take some luck. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 (edited) 5 hours ago, nrockway said: Everyone in this equation is making money hand over fist and probably do not want to stop the gravy train even for a second. I suspect the salary cap is just posturing and a position they will move away from. I mean, we'll see, but I think the owners have a memory of how bad lockouts can be for their bottom line. The last lockout, the last CBA, simply delayed the start of the season a couple of days. The previous lockout, 94-95, nearly destroyed MLB which they're still recovering from. I'm just speculating as I suppose we all are. I have no real insight and some on this board might. I personally think a salary cap/salary floor would be good for the game, as well as a shortened arbitration timeline and integration of the MILB union into the MLB one and higher salaries, better benefits for those guys. I think if MLB just copied the framework of NBA/NFL/NHL, there would be a lot more spending parity and players would still make a bunch of money. But the labor dispute involving millionaires and billionaires doesn't really focus on the quality of the game. Just my fan perspective. But I'd probably bet on a lockout not happening. This is where I think you are wrong. Its pretty well known that many teams are not making money. The twins have significant debt. JR brought ishbia on to pay off debt. Many teams are probably making money but not all of them. Edited September 21 by ptatc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 4 minutes ago, ptatc said: This is where I thinknyou are wring. Its pretty well known that many teams are not making money. The twins have significant debt. JR brought ishbia on to pay off debt. Many teams are probably making money but not all of them. well, some revenue is better than zero revenue in such a scenario. Also, the Pohlads apparently bought the team for $44mil and are looking to sell it for over $1.5bil. hand over fist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 3 minutes ago, nrockway said: well, some revenue is better than zero revenue in such a scenario. Also, the Pohlads apparently bought the team for $44mil and are looking to sell it for over $1.5bil. hand over fist. I just think it's going to be a bigger fight and strike/lockout than you think. The players think short term as their careers are relatively short. Thevowners are playing the long game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 16 minutes ago, nrockway said: well, some revenue is better than zero revenue in such a scenario. Also, the Pohlads apparently bought the team for $44mil and are looking to sell it for over $1.5bil. hand over fist. And couldn't find a buyer seems like the most important part there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 8 minutes ago, ptatc said: I just think it's going to be a bigger fight and strike/lockout than you think. The players think short term as their careers are relatively short. Thevowners are playing the long game. Yup, it could definitely happen. But I sort of think they'll find common ground on the deferral kinds of contracts like the Dodgers signed. I don't think the owners are really all that concerned about a salary cap but I do feel like the owners and players are generally on the same page compared to the last cba. Just speculation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said: And couldn't find a buyer seems like the most important part there. Even if they lower the price by whatever amount of debt is owed...that's still a lot of fucking money. professional sports franchise is the safest investment in the world if you have the money to get in on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 19 minutes ago, nrockway said: well, some revenue is better than zero revenue in such a scenario. Also, the Pohlads apparently bought the team for $44mil and are looking to sell it for over $1.5bil. hand over fist. Return of that money in the Vanguard 500 Index? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 2 minutes ago, nrockway said: Even if they lower the price by whatever amount of debt is owed...that's still a lot of fucking money. professional sports franchise is the safest investment in the world if you have the money to get in on it. There are trillion dollar valuations out there. That is basically the valuation of 500 White Sox's. I posted about Return on Investment in the past and the Sox valuation increase since Jerry took over is remarkablely similar to the SP500. I promise you in that same period that collective SP dividends are much higher than the White Sox or Twins over that period of time just judging by their operations debts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Return of that money in the Vanguard 500 Index? sorry, I only trade on the Shanghai Stock Exchange...but the return is like 13% compared to 10% for index funds per some UMich data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: There are trillion dollar valuations out there. That is basically the valuation of 500 White Sox's. I posted about Return on Investment in the past and the Sox valuation increase since Jerry took over is remarkablely similar to the SP500. I promise you in that same period that collective SP dividends are much higher than the White Sox or Twins over that period of time just judging by their operations debts. https://michiganross.umich.edu/faculty-research/partnerships/ross-arctos-sports-franchise-index actually false Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 5 minutes ago, nrockway said: https://michiganross.umich.edu/faculty-research/partnerships/ross-arctos-sports-franchise-index actually false EmSeeing this link, That's not at all what I said. I am bowing out before Ithe inevitable again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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