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Whats Buehrle worth now?


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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 05:06 PM)
So you honestly believe the Sox would be willing to shell out 6 years (even though they refuse to go any higher than 3 years with pitchers) and $100M+ to Buehrle? Given the organizations history of giving out contracts and their continued stance on pitching contracts I don't see how anyone could believe Buehrle will be retained beyond '07.

 

Clemens' name has not come up in any substantial rumors this offseason. He will not be pitching for the Sox next year it's really as simple as that.

 

Once again, we're in total agreement.

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QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 05:04 PM)
Is there ANYTHING to suggest that the White Sox are actively attempting to pick up Roger Clemens? I mean, it's all well and good for you guys to say, "I'd love to have Roger," or "It's dependent on picking up Clemens,"

I'm suggesting if management feels trading Buehrle is necessary, it should be because of two reasons: someone drastically overpays and Clemens is signed. These are merely my conditions for dealing him.

Edited by Flash Tizzle
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First off, I don't think the Sox should offer Buerhle anything until he shows that he's over whatever it was that made him meat the second half of 2006. Whether you like it or not, the White Sox rarely go beyond 3 years with pitchers, and 4 only a couple of times I believe. Looking back, it actually has been a wise policy. I think if Buerhle regains his form, the Sox will offer him something fairly reasonable they know he won't accept, or if he does it will be a pretty good bargain, just to show their fans they tried. I don't think they can get fair value for him in a trade right now, coming off the poor stretch, and a soon-to-be free agent who probably isn't going to be easy for anyone to sign except maybe the Cardinals. (I still think he's going to end up there, regardless of his past comments). They might as well roll the dice and hope he bounces back. They may wind up with nothing for him, but if he helps them win another World Series, that would be better than any package KW could get unless that package were to lead the Sox to multiple championships.

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I wouldn't even want Clemens. He'd probably show up in June like he did the past two seasons and we'd have to play catch up the rest of the year (like Houston) just to have a shot at the playoffs.

 

That said, this isn't even a possibility, so I'm baffled as to why it's even being thrown around.

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A couple of thoughts:

 

1. We can talk about trying to get a top-flight deal for Buehrle, but it's pretty clear that what many here think is a top-flight deal differs from what Kenny Williams actually secures. Just a few weeks ago, we all thought Garcia would bring a King's ransom, or at least major-leaguers to fill needed positions. What came back was possibly good, but hardly proven. And I think the McCarthy haul, while potentially good, took many of us here a little time to process. I'm not saying Williams couldn't get more, but I think we should be ready to accept that the haul will be less than we think.

 

2. There's a reason that some pitchers -- not all -- but some pitchers get more expensive as they approach free agency -- beyond a crazy market. By the 6 year mark, a lot of growing pains have been suffered. Jon Garland today is a vastly different pitcher than Jon Garland 2 years ago. Experience does that. For that reason, I think it's a little foolish to continue to insist that we want cheap pitching, guys with 6 years service time, and not expect that they're going to struggle. Again, sometimes the salaries are just out of whack -- like with Lilly and Suppan -- but sometimes you have to just say that you're paying for experience. John Danks is a great prospect, but let's not pretend that he's not going to struggle at first. (By the way, his numbers at every level shows that is exactly what he does, before becoming a very good pitcher.).

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Dec 29, 2006 -> 09:11 AM)
You're missing 1 little point there. Yes, Pelfrey/Humber would almost certainly be a downgrade from Buehrle next year. But then at the same time, think about what happens to the outfield when it goes from Podsednik/Anderson/Dye to Milledge/Anderson/Dye with Podsednik as the backup? Suddenly that OF hole that everyone is worried about is filled, along with more speed in the lineup and on the bench.

There's also another way the Sox could go there.

 

They could decide to trade Anderson to a team like Florida for some of their young SP spects (e.g Volsted) and move Milledge to CF (can't remember off the top of my head how he handles that position defensively).

 

They keep Pods as the lead off hitter, Milledge hits down the bottom of it, and KW gets more of what he wants in terms of good young pitching.

 

Can't really see the Sox keeping Podsednik as a backup at this stage.

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QUOTE(Steve9347 @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 04:55 PM)
hmm, career stats say... no

It's disturbingly close. Nearly identical WHIP, Buehrle with a slightly higher ERA (.3), Buehrle WL at 97/66 and Zito at 102/63. A better 2nd half from Buehrle last year and his career numbers would be better than Zito's.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 08:41 PM)
It's disturbingly close. Nearly identical WHIP, Buehrle with a slightly higher ERA (.3), Buehrle WL at 97/66 and Zito at 102/63. A better 2nd half from Buehrle last year and his career numbers would be better than Zito's.

 

Zito is regressing and it shows, although a move to the NL will probably help his career stats down the road. He's not the same pitcher he was when he won 23 games, but he's still very good. But not $17 million a year good

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QUOTE(Steve9347 @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 06:55 PM)
hmm, career stats say... no

I think I've made it pretty clear over the years that I'm not the biggest Buehrle fan around these parts but with that said I'd take Buehrle over Zito if given a choice between the 2. Just watching 15-20 of Zito's starts per year for the last 3 seasons or so I just don't like what I see and his peripherals back that up. He's never come close to matching the numbers he put up in his cy young season.

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Baseball is back on the big big salary kick.

Amazing how the owners can't control themselves. Amazing.

Look for ticket prices to continue to skyrocket.

Jerry needs to be willing to keep up or see us fall in the standings.

Gotta spend some money.

If the Giants can pay Zito that kind of money ... wow.

You can't win pennants with pitchers who are prospects.

Gotta have some Buehrles, Jose's, Freddies to go with the Charlies.

Pay up, Jerry, or sell the team.

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QUOTE(greg775 @ Dec 29, 2006 -> 06:29 PM)
You can't win pennants with pitchers who are prospects.

Gotta have some Buehrles, Jose's, Freddies to go with the Charlies.

Pay up, Jerry, or sell the team.

Buehrle was a 38th round draft pick who came thru the Sox system.

We traded prospects to acquire Garcia and Vazquez.

B-Mac was one of our prospects who made a contribution to us winning the AL Central.

 

St. Louis won a World Series this year with a rookie pitching in game 1.

Detroit won the American League with some rookie pitchers on their books such as Verlander, Zumaya and Miner.

 

So it can be done, and a lot of teams are finding out in this current market how important good young pitching is.

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QUOTE(greg775 @ Dec 29, 2006 -> 01:29 AM)
Baseball is back on the big big salary kick.

Amazing how the owners can't control themselves. Amazing.

Look for ticket prices to continue to skyrocket.

Jerry needs to be willing to keep up or see us fall in the standings.

Gotta spend some money.

If the Giants can pay Zito that kind of money ... wow.

You can't win pennants with pitchers who are prospects.

Gotta have some Buehrles, Jose's, Freddies to go with the Charlies.

Pay up, Jerry, or sell the team.

That's amazing. In the same post, you say "Amazing how the owners can't control themselves", then "Pay up Jerry, or sell the team."

 

:bang

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Here's something to think about....

If the Sox were to trade someone like Buehrle, what do you do with players who have a short window on their effectiveness? I'm thinking specifically about Jim Thome. He still has trade value, but his real efffectiveness as a player is 1 maybe 2 more years.... Does it really make sense to keep him this year if you have traded 3 of your starting pitchers? Would he still make sense for the White Sox?

 

I am not saying that they SHOULD trade Thome (before I get flamed, burnt, and toasted) just that it is something worth pondering. What do you think he would bring in return?

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QUOTE(LEXNLIV @ Dec 29, 2006 -> 08:41 AM)
Here's something to think about....

If the Sox were to trade someone like Buehrle, what do you do with players who have a short window on their effectiveness? I'm thinking specifically about Jim Thome. He still has trade value, but his real efffectiveness as a player is 1 maybe 2 more years.... Does it really make sense to keep him this year if you have traded 3 of your starting pitchers? Would he still make sense for the White Sox?

 

I am not saying that they SHOULD trade Thome (before I get flamed, burnt, and toasted) just that it is something worth pondering. What do you think he would bring in return?

 

Thome is not going anywhere. NTC.

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QUOTE(beautox @ Dec 29, 2006 -> 08:49 AM)
if were going to rebuild do it right, don't half ass it. Send Crede Dye and MB packing, next year move two of Javy, Jon and Jose.

Or, let's not rebuild. Let's work young, cheap talent in year by year, like we are already doing. That way, your team is successful and competitive every year. This team, right now, has the talent to be a post-season team (whether or not they make it is of course another story), AND is set up well to continue to be that for a few seasons after. So why destroy that?

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Buehrle will get at least $15mil/year but not from the Whitesox. The Whitesox will say goodbye to him just like other franchise starters Jack McDowell, Alex Fernandez and Wilson Alvarez. And we all know what they did after they left the Whitesox, NOTHING.

 

I would love to see a 3 or 4 year extension for Buehrle, allowing him to hit the free agent marget again when he is 30, but it is highly unlikely. I doubt the Cardinals offer him more years than 3 or 4 either though.

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Effective junkballers like Buehrle (I am a big fan, mind you), can last in the league a long time by painting corners and bending (giving up hits but not runs) without breaking without much burden on their arms. Think Tom Glavine or Jamie Moyer as comparisons to Buehrle on the high and low ends of his career. Buehrle is still very young and has 6 years on his arm (but its more like 2 years for a power pitcher) so why wouldn't he get a 6+ year contract next year when he is 28?

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QUOTE(greg775 @ Dec 29, 2006 -> 01:29 AM)
Baseball is back on the big big salary kick.

Amazing how the owners can't control themselves. Amazing.

Look for ticket prices to continue to skyrocket.

Jerry needs to be willing to keep up or see us fall in the standings.

Gotta spend some money.

If the Giants can pay Zito that kind of money ... wow.

You can't win pennants with pitchers who are prospects.

Gotta have some Buehrles, Jose's, Freddies to go with the Charlies.

Pay up, Jerry, or sell the team.

 

 

Are you for real. We have one of the top payrolls in the AL, and you are claiming JR is cheap. The giants are morons for giving Zito that type of money and years. It will hurt them in the long run when they have an albatross of a contract on a decent but not great pitcher.

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QUOTE(SoxHawk1980 @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 01:13 PM)
First if all KW could get for Garcia is Gio and Floyd, then he I don't think he'll be able to get Pelfrey and Milledge for Buehrle. Second, that would be a give up on the 2007 season. I think it is a bit too early to white flag the 2007 season. And I can't imagine why anyone would be in favor of tanking a season where you know you'll be in contention in favor of maybe contending in future seasons. I say "maybe" because we would be banking on prospects and prospects are iffy by their very nature.

 

 

 

All this stuff ............ Phil Rogers predicted a couple weeks ago. He was called a heretic by some I recall also .......

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