Zack Wheeler Thread

[Soxnfins 261]

The Official White Sox twitter account will apparently be our source for signings this year.... Grandal got done last night, released it today.

[BackDoorBreach 794]

1 minute ago, Soxnfins said:

The Official White Sox twitter account will apparently be our source for signings this year.... Grandal got done last night, released it today.

I'm actually really suprised this didn't get leaked yesterday.

[Soxnfins 261]

40 minutes ago, raBBit said:

 

mqr is right except the Sox were looking at Lux for their 2nd round pick. Lux didn't really get discovered as a stud until late in the draft process. The Sox foretasted him with their second pick (where they eventually took Hanson) but his stock skyrocketed at the Dodgers took him before Burdi at #26. Sox local scouts thought the world of Lux not that it is any consolation. 

He was fun to watch at ITA.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Soxnfins

[Soxnfins 261]

Just now, BackDoorBreach said:

I'm actually really suprised this didn't get leaked yesterday.

The "table" apparantly has closed doors.

[TheFutureIsNear 300]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Everyone counts; just as you can't cite that Reynaldo was the 15th ranked starter by fWAR because it only lists qualified performers.

You create league averages vs the full sample - not just qualified. So he is 8% worse than league average in FIP. That's all that matters, imo.

My point was that 5 FIP is not the norm at all like you tried to say. Pitchers get replaced when they pitch that poorly, as the evidence shows so few guys pitching significant innings with a 5 FIP. Reynaldo only accumulated that fWAR because the white Sox couldn’t field 5 competent SP’s and he had to stay in the rotation. 
 

This discussion really isn’t even about Lopez, I think he should be in the rotation for at least a few months next year...it’s more about the idea of using 1 stat like fWAR and thinking it tells the whole story. Which is nonsense. There’s always a much bigger picture. In this case it’s the fact that fWAR is a flawed stat that gives too much value for simply taking the mound every 5 days. And while I agree staying healthy is important for a SP, it doesn’t change the fact that Lopez wasn’t affective last year. If Lopez is on probably 25 (pure guess) other teams last year he never approaches 2 fwar because he would have been in AAA. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run 6,126]

5 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

My point was that 5 FIP is not the norm at all like you tried to say. Pitchers get replaced when they pitch that poorly, as the evidence shows so few guys pitching significant innings with a 5 FIP. Reynaldo only accumulated that fWAR because the white Sox couldn’t field 5 competent SP’s and he had to stay in the rotation. 
 

This discussion really isn’t even about Lopez, I think he should be in the rotation for at least a few months next year...it’s more about the idea of using 1 stat like fWAR and thinking it tells the whole story. Which is nonsense. There’s always a much bigger picture. In this case it’s the fact that fWAR is a flawed stat that gives too much value for simply taking the mound every 5 days. And while I agree staying healthy is important for a SP, it doesn’t change the fact that Lopez wasn’t affective last year. If Lopez is on probably 25 (pure guess) other teams last year he never approaches 2 fwar because he would have been in AAA. 

Again, if you're 8% worse than league average most teams will not have a replacement better than that for their 5th starter spot. 

There were only 61 qualified starters in MLB baseball - the number you are using to say Lopez ranks at the bottom.

There are over 150 starting pitchers in MLB baseball. In a given year, on average, over 210 starters will be used. Lopez ranks near the bottom of the mlb qualify starters who warrant pitching every 5th day. He doesnt rank near the bottom of mlb pitchers In general.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[poppysox 2,001]

5 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

Based on the Grandal deal, they seem to want to strike quick. What do you think a potential offer out to Wheeler looks like right now? I'm going to agree with everyone and guess 5 years/$100 mill.

I think you are spot on.

[TheFutureIsNear 300]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Again, if you're 8% worse than league average most teams will not have a replacement better than that for their 5th starter spot. 

There were only 61 qualified starters in MLB baseball - the number you are using to say Lopez ranks at the bottom.

There are over 150 starting pitchers in MLB baseball. In a given year, on average, over 210 starters will be used. Lopez ranks near the bottom of the mlb qualify starters who warrant pitching every 5th day. He doesnt rank near the bottom of mlb pitchers In general.

Do you know why the majority of those 150 pitchers didn’t qualify? Because they got replaced for pitching like Lopez did. White Sox were too bad to replace Lopez so therefore he accumulated fwar by simply having a pulse every 5 days. Hence why I think fWAR is a very flawed stat when isolated to compare players, especially pitchers. 
 

But clearly we aren’t going to come to agreement and I’m over it. Enjoy your night 

[wegner 3,196]

5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I think you are spot on.

I need 1 penny more than $100 mill that so that I am correct in my prediction for #5 on the "want to play a game thread"

[Look at Ray Ray Run 6,126]

3 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Do you know why the majority of those 150 pitchers didn’t qualify? Because they got replaced for pitching like Lopez did. White Sox were too bad to replace Lopez so therefore he accumulated fwar by simply having a pulse every 5 days. Hence why I think fWAR is a very flawed stat when isolated to compare players, especially pitchers. 
 

But clearly we aren’t going to come to agreement and I’m over it. Enjoy your night 

Replaced by who? Guys just as bad? That's the point I'm making. What's the point of having a carousel of arms that are all bad.

You as well, have a great holiday as well.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Soxnfins 261]

Sox don’t use rounded numbers much... I’m going 5/97

Edited November 21, 2019 by Soxnfins

[caulfield12 3,241]

24 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

Sox don’t use rounded numbers much... I’m going 5/97

That close, and they might as well break the club record for first $100+ million contract while they’re at it...plus, with the most loaded field of suitors with all the red flags on Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel and Hamels, that number easily ranges in the $100-115 range and possibly touches $120 million.   Hopefully, nearer to $100 for future payroll’s sake, though.

[reiks12 1,461]

I know its been brought up a bunch in this thread, but his injury history concerns me. I still think we go for it at 5 years 20mil per though. Just have to hold my breath every time he pitches like i did with Rodon. 

[DirtySox 1,754]

 

[bmags 7,580]

https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1197663148100050944

[bmags 7,580]

1 minute ago, DirtySox said:

 

I’ll never beat you

[DirtySox 1,754]

Just now, bmags said:

I’ll never beat you

A valiant effort.

[BackDoorBreach 794]

15 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

I know its been brought up a bunch in this thread, but his injury history concerns me. I still think we go for it at 5 years 20mil per though. Just have to hold my breath every time he pitches like i did with Rodon. 

He had TJ and a setback from it.  Since he has been pretty healthy over the last 2 years.

[bmags 7,580]

Bob is good again

[SoxAce 2,848]

Just now, bmags said:

I’ll never beat you

Yea was just about to post this bmags. One day... you'll get him.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! 1,574]

3 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

 

Wheeler to the Padres confirmed.

[flavum 1,298]

Not great, Bob!

[turnin' two 1,141]

Based on MLBTR projections (I know, I know, ) the price tag on Wheeler (100 mil) is about the same as the price tag on Ryu and Keuchel (93).  Which would you rather have?  I have to say, I think I'd prefer the 2 starters to the one.  

[Jerksticks 898]

Strasburg, 6/180?

[BackDoorBreach 794]

7 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Strasburg, 6/180?

Probably around there