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Dominikk85

Realistic expectation for Vaughn in 21

Vaughn 2021 wRC+  

75 members have voted

  1. 1. Wrc+

    • Minors all year
      11
    • Sub 100 wrc+
      6
    • 100-110
      25
    • 110-120
      17
    • 120-130
      10
    • 130+
      6


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29 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Robert was a 101 last year. I don't see a path for Vaughn being higher than 101 to 110. He will probably fall somewhere between there if he .ages adjustments and improves as the season goes on. I'd prefer he be in the minors and that we sign Cruz. It's easier to stomach Vaughn next season if he struggles as we'd really know where the team stands by then. Hed have a spot to grow through the pains without hurting wins and losses. 

robert was a 101 with one month of absolutely awful hitting. I'm going with WRc+ 112!

Edited by Squirmin' for Yermin

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6 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

robert was a 101 with one month of absolutely awful hitting. I'm going with WRc+ 112!

Things even themselves out over time. 

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I think vaughn has a bit less power than robert but he has better plate discipline and will strike out less.

Best case could be a rookie season like rhys hoskins.

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Last White Sox player that came up as a can't miss hitter and a similar hit profile to Vaughn's at a similar age, at a similar position put up a wRC+ of .178 in his rookie year...but he did get better.    

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The DH position has been a sad pathetic black hole since Jim Thome retired.

I expect Vaughn to turn the tide, assuming he isn't traded, but it may take a year or two for him to acclimate to ML pitching.

wRC+ & fWAR (Annual average for multi-year)

  • 2020: E. Encarnacion 70 / -0.3
  • 2019: Y. Alonso 54 / -1.3
  • 17-18: M. Davidson 94.5 / -0.05
  • 2016: A. Garcia 88 / 0.4
  • 2015: A. LaRoche 77 / -1.2
  • 11-14: A. Dunn 100 / 0.0
  • 2010: M. Kotsay 80 / -1.2
  • 06-09: J. Thome 137 / 2.7

 

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I have high hopes for Vaughn, but expect some growing pains, so I guessed 100-110. If he posts it, it will our best DH since Jim Thome. Wow, what a black hole for the Sox. Time to bring some light!

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To be fair if you discount for his all time bad 2011 dunn wasn't that bad.

2011: 60

2012: 115

2013: 107

2014: 114

 

Still of course not what you expected from the contract but 12-14 he was not terrible, if vaughn does that in his first year it would be fine.

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Vaughn will get a lot of attention in Spring Training and will have a chance to break camp on the 25 (or is it 26) man roster.

 

 

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1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The DH position has been a sad pathetic black hole since Jim Thome retired.

I expect Vaughn to turn the tide, assuming he isn't traded, but it may take a year or two for him to acclimate to ML pitching.

wRC+ & fWAR (Annual average for multi-year)

  • 2020: E. Encarnacion 70 / -0.3
  • 2019: Y. Alonso 54 / -1.3
  • 17-18: M. Davidson 94.5 / -0.05
  • 2016: A. Garcia 88 / 0.4
  • 2015: A. LaRoche 77 / -1.2
  • 11-14: A. Dunn 100 / 0.0
  • 2010: M. Kotsay 80 / -1.2
  • 06-09: J. Thome 137 / 2.7

 

So sad.

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Let's have him jump to MLB after taking a year off on a team that is desperate for a DH and is expected to win the division. What could go wrong? 

 

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15 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Let's have him jump to MLB after taking a year off on a team that is desperate for a DH and is expected to win the division. What could go wrong? 

 

He didn’t take the year off... I don’t know why that is so hard for some  people to understand.

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3 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

He didn’t take the year off... I don’t know why that is so hard for some  people to understand.

Sorry, I'm trying to find his stats for 2020. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=683734#/career/R/hitting/2021/ALL I guess they haven't updated yet. 

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He didn't take a year off but it is not clear how this alternate site thing affects players. On the one hand you face better pitchers than in the minors but you face the same pitchers again and again and also they might be less willing to for example throw a hitter inside because you don't want to break your teammates hand.

I would not be against starting him in AA for 2 months (added benefit is super two status) and then bring him up if he rakes but I could also see him holding his own right away.

The question of course is whether there is AA ball at all this year or when does it start, if milb doesn't start on time you almost have to bring him up quickly (i.e after 2 weeks to get the extra year) for his development

 

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I don't know how to answer this. He's had what, 2 months in the minors, in which he didn't light anything up? Nor should he of... but it feels ridiculous to pencil him in to make a big jump right to being an impact MLB hitter.

I would say he probably should stay in the minors for a full season. But that doesn't appear to be in the cards, since the Sox don't appear to want to pay for a DH.

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7 hours ago, yesterday333 said:

Oh I didn’t realize the only way to progress is to put up minor league stats... 🙄

Lol. I believe facing live pitching in game situations is extremely important to a player's development. 

But sure,  lifting weights and playing video baseball is good too. Imagine canceling another year of MiLB and how advanced all those players will be. :lolhitting

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1 hour ago, Sarava said:

I don't know how to answer this. He's had what, 2 months in the minors, in which he didn't light anything up? Nor should he of... but it feels ridiculous to pencil him in to make a big jump right to being an impact MLB hitter.

I would say he probably should stay in the minors for a full season. But that doesn't appear to be in the cards, since the Sox don't appear to want to pay for a DH.

Vaughn will be 23 in April . You hold him down for a year and he's 24 next year. It's time to start seeing what we have. He was supposed to be one of the best college bats in a long time. You can't keep delaying him because of Covid and not getting Minor League AB's. The Sox trust what they saw of him in Schaumburg enough that its reasonable to assume he's going to get a lot of AB's this year. You have superstars in the league putting up great number by 22 yrs old and younger in some cases. He needs to face MLB pitching now . And I say this as a guy who has always cautioned against expecting too much too soon for Vaughn.

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Like most young players...if he signs an extension he will be up with the big club on OD.  Without the extension...he will need a month or two of adjustment time.

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I think people will be SHOCKED at how good Vaughn is from day 1.  In another thread I made a bold prediction that Vaughn will be the best overall hitter on the Sox this year.  I think they'll start him lowish in the order (around 7) and after a couple weeks people will be complaining he's not hitting 3rd or 4th.  The only player likely to have at bats consistently as good as Vaughn is Moncada.

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46 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Lol. I believe facing live pitching in game situations is extremely important to a player's development. 

But sure,  lifting weights and playing video baseball is good too. Imagine canceling another year of MiLB and how advanced all those players will be. :lolhitting

What if I told you that they did face live pitching in game situations at Schaumburg...

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1 hour ago, Texsox said:

Lol. I believe facing live pitching in game situations is extremely important to a player's development. 

But sure,  lifting weights and playing video baseball is good too. Imagine canceling another year of MiLB and how advanced all those players will be. :lolhitting

Yeah, they never played against live pitching. You're a smart lil guy arencha

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I don't hold college stats or Schaumburg camp in high regard for many reasons.  I voted for minors.  That said, I agree that if there's no minor season, Sox are basically forced to play him and hope for the best.  They really can't waist another year.  He's better off with the Sox, part time with very limited 1B & maybe some DH sharing, than no quality time elsewhere.  The risk is that failure can harm both the Sox chances and especially him. 

He should be treated as a luxury not a dependent but Covid screwed with that.  Its so unfortunate its robbing him of his normal progression through the system.

 

Edited by Rounding_Third

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2 hours ago, Texsox said:

Lol. I believe facing live pitching in game situations is extremely important to a player's development. 

But sure,  lifting weights and playing video baseball is good too. Imagine canceling another year of MiLB and how advanced all those players will be. :lolhitting

Yeah I am sure the White Sox just funded a sixty man circle jerk in Schaumburg for two months, as it couldn't have possibly done the team any good to have the players playing as close to real baseball as possible because absolutely no one was getting an infectious disease or injuries to where they would need replacements on the active roster.

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