Conforto rejects QO, enters free agency

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 hours ago, SCCWS said:

Yoan had a good year w the bat but you need to add an asterisk to that.  Grandal only played 90 games which is about 3/4 of a season.  That is coming off a short season in 2020. Yoan has traditionally been a guy who struggles 2nd half of seasons probably because he averages 125ish games  .  So hopefully the lesson is the Sox need to rest him on a regular basis so he doesn't break down late.  That doesn't mean playing him at 1B or DH because he pretty much struggles offensively in other positions, which is weird. 

I don't think Yoan had a good year "with the bat" . I think he had a good year "in the batters box". HIgh OBP which leads to a .787 OPS but the slugging of .412 was bad.

He was also terrible against LHP and on the road. Clutch stats: With 2 outs and RISP ,. 345 SLG. terrible, Late and close .276 SLG terrible, Tie game .335 SLG. terrible.

[Sarava]

I'm in the camp that doesn't want Conforto. If this even sniffs around a 100 mil contract. To me that's lunacy to spend that kind of money on someone you're hoping bounces back.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, Sarava said:

I'm in the camp that doesn't want Conforto. If this even sniffs around a 100 mil contract. To me that's lunacy to spend that kind of money on someone you're hoping bounces back.

He was injured last year and that down year will be factored into the price.  What would you rather do to address RF and add more balance to the lineup?

[poppysox]

23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He was injured last year and that down year will be factored into the price.  What would you rather do to address RF and add more balance to the lineup?

Play Vaughn/Sheets in RF.  Use money on other needs.  These young guys need to play somewhere.  Abreu is still the 1st baseman and Grandal is still DH when not catching.

[Chicago White Sox]

43 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Play Vaughn/Sheets in RF.  Use money on other needs.  These young guys need to play somewhere.  Abreu is still the 1st baseman and Grandal is still DH when not catching.

That’s going to be some brutal OF defense and negate a lot of the value these kids provide with the bat.  I’d rather use one of Vaughn/Sheets at DH and get me a real RF.

[poppysox]

25 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That’s going to be some brutal OF defense and negate a lot of the value these kids provide with the bat.  I’d rather use one of Vaughn/Sheets at DH and get me a real RF.

I know the argument but Eloy, Grandal, Abreu, Vaugh, Collins, and Sheets can't all be the DH.  Trades might be the way to go but selling low isn't the answer.

[kleedawg]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That’s going to be some brutal OF defense and negate a lot of the value these kids provide with the bat.  I’d rather use one of Vaughn/Sheets at DH and get me a real RF.

Is conforto even better defensively than Vaughn? Really?

[ron883]

12 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

Is conforto even better defensively than Vaughn? Really?

Yes

[fathom]

2 hours ago, poppysox said:

I know the argument but Eloy, Grandal, Abreu, Vaugh, Collins, and Sheets can't all be the DH.  Trades might be the way to go but selling low isn't the answer.

You’d be selling high on Sheets

[Baron]

22 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

Is conforto even better defensively than Vaughn? Really?

Statistically no. 

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Yes

People really struggle with degrees on this board. Because Conforto is not a good fielder, he must be the same as our bad fielders. I was really impressed with Vaughn's outfield last year - because he was not the worst LF as I expected. 

In 218 chances, Conforto +1 Outs above Average last year

In 179 chances between LF and RF, Vaughn was -5 in Outs above Average

[chw42]

3 minutes ago, Baron said:

Statistically no. 

Vaughn looked fine in LF, but was absolutely awful in RF in the short time he played there. 

[chw42]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

People really struggle with degrees on this board. Because Conforto is not a good fielder, he must be the same as our bad fielders. I was really impressed with Vaughn's outfield last year - because he was not the worst LF as I expected. 

In 218 chances, Conforto +1 Outs above Average last year

In 179 chances between LF and RF, Vaughn was -5 in Outs above Average

Vaughn was in the bottom 1% in outfield jump and bottom 6% in OAA among all outfielders last year. He was pretty sure handed, but he had absolutely no range. Conforto may not be a good fielder, but he's at least somewhere around average out there. 

[Baron]

4 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Vaughn looked fine in LF, but was absolutely awful in RF in the short time he played there. 

He was but if your just taking their defense in the OF as a whole I mean it's really negligible. They are both almost equal in DRS (-4 and -5) URZ is better for Vaughn. ARM is better for Conforto. I wouldn't say Conforto is  a clear upgrade. He's a bad defensive outfielder. 

Conforto's zone rating in 2020 was 851 and 921 this year. Vaughn's was 879 this year. That's all just brutal. 

Edited November 12, 2021 by Baron

[bmags]

Conforto Fielding Runs Above Average -0.2

Andrew Vaughn Fielding Runs Above Average -3.8

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

People really struggle with degrees on this board. Because Conforto is not a good fielder, he must be the same as our bad fielders. I was really impressed with Vaughn's outfield last year - because he was not the worst LF as I expected. 

In 218 chances, Conforto +1 Outs above Average last year

In 179 chances between LF and RF, Vaughn was -5 in Outs above Average

Exactly.  For OAA, Conforto was in the 63rd percentile whereas Vaughn in the 6th.  Even if you make the argument Conforto is not a good defensive OF, he’s clearly not Vaughn levels of bad.

[SCCWS]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Exactly.  For OAA, Conforto was in the 63rd percentile whereas Vaughn in the 6th.  Even if you make the argument Conforto is not a good defensive OF, he’s clearly not Vaughn levels of bad.

Agree but combine them together in LF and RF and Robert will  want  a raise. 

[Baron]

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Exactly.  For OAA, Conforto was in the 63rd percentile whereas Vaughn in the 6th.  Even if you make the argument Conforto is not a good defensive OF, he’s clearly not Vaughn levels of bad.

Who on here is going to make an argument that he's not bad? 

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, Baron said:

Who on here is going to make an argument that he's not bad? 

That Conforto is bad?  I would definitely make the argument he’s not bad.

[poppysox]

3 hours ago, fathom said:

You’d be selling high on Sheets

Why?

[Balta1701]

So seriously, we had this defense discussion a few pages ago and it seemed like UZR and DRS liked Conforto far less than OAA/Statcast did. Has this latter stat just completely overwhelmed the older ones and rendered them useless, or are the different ones telling us different things?

[FoxForce2]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

So seriously, we had this defense discussion a few pages ago and it seemed like UZR and DRS liked Conforto far less than OAA/Statcast did. Has this latter stat just completely overwhelmed the older ones and rendered them useless, or are the different ones telling us different things?

How many here have seen Conforto play RF? While stat driven analysis has improved by leaps and bounds over the past ten years, defensive metrics remain less than high-resolution re: evaluating a player's performance in the field. The large number of variables present and differing measurement methods involved in this process make for a complex task. Even when applying a reasonably valid algorithm, the eyeball test is still valid at least as a component in any gauging system. That - assuming that the eyeballs themselves are well calibrated.

[Chisoxfn]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

People really struggle with degrees on this board. Because Conforto is not a good fielder, he must be the same as our bad fielders. I was really impressed with Vaughn's outfield last year - because he was not the worst LF as I expected. 

In 218 chances, Conforto +1 Outs above Average last year

In 179 chances between LF and RF, Vaughn was -5 in Outs above Average

This - lets be realistic. Vaughn might get better and he was somewhat passable in left but that was relative to Eloy who was horrendous and our base line expectations for Vaughn which were very bad.  The reality is he has still literally played 1 year of outfield in basically his career (or at least that was my impression) so it is a pretty big gap for him to evolve more than that. I get it if a SS moves to CF or OF and becomes a stud in time...because their pure athleticism, etc...but Vaughn will never be more than serviceable at best (and there is nothing wrong with that either).  

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So seriously, we had this defense discussion a few pages ago and it seemed like UZR and DRS liked Conforto far less than OAA/Statcast did. Has this latter stat just completely overwhelmed the older ones and rendered them useless, or are the different ones telling us different things?

It’s just that people lump his CF & LF/RF defense into one bucket and draw incorrect conclusions.  From 2017 to 2020, he had a DRS of 6 in RF.  During this same period his OAA was 4 for RF.  Additionally, his UZR/150 was positive in three of these four years.  Generally speaking, he’s graded out to an average or slight above RF.  That matches scouting reports as well.  As for this year, his defense was graded poorly, but he was injured and there is nothing predictive about one years worth of defensive metrics.

[FoxForce2]

28 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

It’s just that people lump his CF & LF/RF defense into one bucket and draw incorrect conclusions.  From 2017 to 2020, he had a DRS of 6 in RF.  During this same period his OAA was 4 for RF.  Additionally, his UZR/150 was positive in three of these four years.  Generally speaking, he’s graded out to an average or slight above RF.  That matches scouting reports as well.  As for this year, his defense was graded poorly, but he was injured and there is nothing predictive about one years worth of defensive metrics.

Looking at Conforto's Fielding Bible page - he's inconsistent from one year to the next, scoring somewhat above to somewhat below league averages until 2021 in which his numbers were well below RF standards. His overall performance at the plate improved over the course of the 2021 season and supposing that those improvements were due to injury recovery and would likely reflect in his field play as well - but I haven't found a list of splits on his defense work. 

Edited November 12, 2021 by FoxForce2