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Dane Dunning - Expectations now and going forward

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15 minutes ago, Soxfest said:

Dunning has passed Lopez in any future rotation pecking order.

Dunning throws strikes, Lopez does not.

Dunning is a #4/5 on a quality team, a valuable rotation piece, but his stuff is unlikely to ever make him more than a mid rotation arm

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4 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Dunning throws strikes, Lopez does not.

Dunning is a #4/5 on a quality team, a valuable rotation piece, but his stuff is unlikely to ever make him more than a mid rotation arm

Not saying you're wrong, but I'm sure people have said the same thing about Kyle Hendricks his entire career.

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1 hour ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

We have seen 2 starts from Dunning so far. He doesn't have an overwhelming fastball, but he has good offspeed stuff and very good control. Granted, he faced some lousy teams. 

I for one am super excited to see a guy come up and have the control he has displayed. Stuff isn't overwhelming, but he can place it wherever he wants. 

I'm really hoping he had the endurance to be our #3 in the playoffs if Cease doesn't step it up. Going forward, he can be one hell of a #4 and probably a #3 pitcher.  What are your early grades and expectations?

 

I expect him to go on a Tim Hudson rookie year like rampage. 

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23 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

We've seen plenty of pitchers struggle against teams like the Tigers and Royals.  

yeah, us for the last 6 years.

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Dunning can get his fastball up to 95 when he wants to. He doesn’t to do it as every pitch he throws moves including his FB. If he threw 95 all the time his fastball might be straighter and get hit.

collins used to play against dunning in college he told the story of him and his teammates in the dugout trying to guess which pitch dunning was going to throw and where and they were wrong most of the time. He just pounds the glove with good to great stuff. 

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12 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

Not saying you're wrong, but I'm sure people have said the same thing about Kyle Hendricks his entire career.

Hendricks has outstanding control, rarely allowing walks or HR's. 

I'm not saying it is impossible for Dunning to develop into more, just saying it is unlikely he can become more than a mid rotation arm. Either way, he's a valuable piece.

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It looks like he makes the Eaton trade a clear winner, instead of just a good trade.

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49 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Among qualified starters Cease has the worst FIP and second worst xFIP in baseball, worst fWAR, and tied for worst BB/9. He has been pretty bad, but to his credit he is somehow keeping teams from torching him like they should be.

This is worrisome if you're thinking about his next start, but long term this is actually a good sign. If he can worm his way through when he is struggling with his command to this extent, he should be outstanding when he finally gets his mechanics worked out. No telling how long that might take, but if he can keep his head above water in the meantime the dividends should be plentiful. It would be a lot easier to take if we had another solid starter to bump him down a notch, but oh well.

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24 minutes ago, oldsox said:

It looks like he makes the Eaton trade a clear winner, instead of just a good trade.

Giolito alone has made the trade a winner.

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Just now, Vulture said:

Giolito alone has made the trade a winner.

The Nats aren't mad any more. 

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28 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Hendricks has outstanding control, rarely allowing walks or HR's. 

I'm not saying it is impossible for Dunning to develop into more, just saying it is unlikely he can become more than a mid rotation arm. Either way, he's a valuable piece.

Dunning HRs/9 in the minors - 0.6

BBs/9 in the minors - 2.4

Hendricks HRs/9 in the minors - 0.4

BBs/9 in the minors - 1.6

Obviously there's variables to consider (Dunning pitched 3 years in the minors, Hendricks 5. Dunning the much higher strikeout guy at 10.2 Ks/9 to Hendricks 7.6 Ks/9 etc.) but Dunning isn't exactly a walks or homerun allowing machine here. You may be right however but I can definitely see #3 type guy personally. 

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1 hour ago, turnin' two said:

People being awful hard on Cease for basically keeping the team in every single game (except his first).  Yeah, he needs to rein in the walks.  But he has been effective, if not efficient.  For a 24 year old, who just made his 20th appearance, I don't get why people feel the need to jump on him.  Since his first start he hasn't allowed more than 2 runs.  I get that he isn't going deep into games, and that he is walking a tightrope out there, but still.  It isn't like he is garbage.  And with the stuff he has, there is reason to see front of the rotation potential.  And even if he never completely figures out the control, he can still be a good starter.  

Its because his success so far has been a lot of smoke and mirrors.  He has a massive discrepancy between his ERA and FIP right now of over 3 runs.  Simply put, he just hasnt looked good, but hes been incredibly lucky.  His walk rate is up, his k rate is WAY down.  He has been lucky in that his babip is incredibly low and his lob% is incredibly high. Once both of those revert to normal, hes going to be giving up a ton of runs.

now those are just what his stats say.  But also watching him, he just doesnt look impressive.  He has no command of any of his pitches and is constantly pitching from behind in the count.  Yes, he can throw 98.  But he cant control it, and a 98mph heater belt high over the heart of the plate leads to a lot of homeruns, which he gives up every time out.  Right now cease is your stereotypical thrower.  Hes not a pitcher.  
 

as it stands now, cease is no better than a #5 starteR, and only gets that spot in order to get him more reps, not because he deserves it with his performance.  If hes starting games in the playoffs, we’re in trouble.  

Edited by ChiSox1917

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52 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

Not saying you're wrong, but I'm sure people have said the same thing about Kyle Hendricks his entire career.

Or Aaron Nola, which is the guy Dunning reminds me most of,

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If Kopech or Cease came up looking like him they would be hailed as the second coming but Dunning wasn't a prized prospect so people seem to be downplaying how great he has looked. It is especially amazing he is doing this at the start of his career. Usually starters take even longer to develop success in the majors than hitters. Through his first 2 games he has given up only a couple hard hit balls.

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10 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Dunning HRs/9 in the minors - 0.6

BBs/9 in the minors - 2.4

Hendricks HRs/9 in the minors - 0.4

BBs/9 in the minors - 1.6

Obviously there's variables to consider (Dunning pitched 3 years in the minors, Hendricks 5. Dunning the much higher strikeout guy at 10.2 Ks/9 to Hendricks 7.6 Ks/9 etc.) but Dunning isn't exactly a walks or homerun allowing machine here. You may be right however but I can definitely see #3 type guy personally. 

Dunning has been looking even better than he did in the minors. He may have come back from Tommy John an even better pitcher than he was.

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Expectations are that he has a locked in spot in 2021 that Kopech has to try and take. I like that. Make them all hungry. 
Cease honestly is the one that really will have something to prove if Dunning keeps having effective control and Kopech comes back blazing. 

Since they didn't make a move, Bauer or Stroman on a shorter deal is absolutely perfect short term while all this talent sorts itself out the next 2 seasons. 

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Probably a #3 but maybe Q like.  Good control and works relatively fast.  Doesn't walk the World and when stretched out can probably go 6 or 7 solid innings.  I wish we had another of him.

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I think I finally believe that Kenny Williams has turned the keys over to RH.  Dunning is a guy that KW moves at the deadline for a reliever.  

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1 hour ago, turnin' two said:

People being awful hard on Cease for basically keeping the team in every single game (except his first).  Yeah, he needs to rein in the walks.  But he has been effective, if not efficient.  For a 24 year old, who just made his 20th appearance, I don't get why people feel the need to jump on him.  Since his first start he hasn't allowed more than 2 runs.  I get that he isn't going deep into games, and that he is walking a tightrope out there, but still.  It isn't like he is garbage.  And with the stuff he has, there is reason to see front of the rotation potential.  And even if he never completely figures out the control, he can still be a good starter.  

With some of the pitchers the Sox have rocked throughout the years, Cease isn't one to complain about at all.  Anyone doing so is complaining just to complain.  The kid is figuring out his schtick...he could be far worse, because we've seen it...the fact he seems serviceable for now is a huge plus.

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1 hour ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Its because his success so far has been a lot of smoke and mirrors.  He has a massive discrepancy between his ERA and FIP right now of over 3 runs.  Simply put, he just hasnt looked good, but hes been incredibly lucky.  His walk rate is up, his k rate is WAY down.  He has been lucky in that his babip is incredibly low and his lob% is incredibly high. Once both of those revert to normal, hes going to be giving up a ton of runs.

now those are just what his stats say.  But also watching him, he just doesnt look impressive.  He has no command of any of his pitches and is constantly pitching from behind in the count.  Yes, he can throw 98.  But he cant control it, and a 98mph heater belt high over the heart of the plate leads to a lot of homeruns, which he gives up every time out.  Right now cease is your stereotypical thrower.  Hes not a pitcher.  
 

as it stands now, cease is no better than a #5 starteR, and only gets that spot in order to get him more reps, not because he deserves it with his performance.  If hes starting games in the playoffs, we’re in trouble.  

Yeah.  I get it.  He walks people.  He is a young starter with a lightning arm.  There are very few of those that come up who don't struggle with their command and control.  

You said he is lucky a couple times, maybe it isn't only that he is lucky, maybe his 98 mph stuff, when he gets it over, is difficult to hit very well consistently.  I completely agree, that he is a thrower not a pitcher.  Again, he has made 21 career appearances as an MLB pitcher.  He is 24 years old, and pitching meaningful innings on a contending team.  There is going to be a learning curve.  Very few guys come up and pitch great right away (hopefully Dunning remains that guy- he has looked absolutely great -- but even with him, there have been several posts today mentioning how he doesn't throw hard enough.  People's expectations are out of whack.  Do you really expect every pitcher to come up and dominate with elite stuff right away???  Dunning may have elite control.  Cease has elite stuff.  They both have to adjust on the other aspects of their games.).  Up until Sunday, Cease had made 5 straight starts of at least 5 innings, without allowing more than 2 runs.  That is a great stretch of luck.  And all but one of those starts was at least 6IP.  Yeah he walks too many guys.  Hardly a reason to crap on him as a guy with 109 innings under his belt.

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Expectation? To be a #3 or #4 for the Sox for many years to come. That said, if he can become more than that, that would be awesome. I'd love to see him creep in to the #2 or #3 area. But either way I'm excited to have him on our team moving forward. I found it weird the other day that a handful of posters here seemed to really want to trade him.

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15 hours ago, TomPickle said:

Among qualified starters Cease has the worst FIP and second worst xFIP in baseball, worst fWAR, and tied for worst BB/9. He has been pretty bad, but to his credit he is somehow keeping teams from torching him like they should be.

Giolito was the worst starter in baseball as recently as 2018. I'm not suggesting that Cease will turn it around and receive Cy Young votes next season, but additional growth and development is basically a certainty for him.

Edited by oneofthemikes

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13 hours ago, Leonard Zelig said:

What is the realistic time frame for a pitcher to increase his workload?  

I wanna say that it's something like 30% per season

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