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Offseason Targets

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8 hours ago, Orlando said:

I don’t think the Sox are interested in Hand. They could have claimed him at a decent price today with no competition. I would love Ozuna but Nightengale mentioned Brantley and Morton. I think he has proven he has his hand on the pulse of the White Sox.

Wish we would get our new pitching coach on board soon.  He should be part of the decision making process on pitcher acquisitions.

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24 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Fangraphs has posted their contract predictions for the top 50 free agents!  If Jerry is willing to spend some money to please his buddy Tony, damn could we clean up this offseason.  Some of these prices are well below expectations.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/

I'm sure a ~$150M payroll target is unreasonable and some of these estimates are going to be way off, but holy shit would I quickly do the following and then just go to fucking war:

  • Bauer = 4/$90M
  • Pederson = 2/$20M
  • McCann = 2/$14M
  • Colome = 2/$14M
  • Kluber = 1/$9M

2021 roster.PNG

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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24 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I'm sure a ~$150M payroll target is unreasonable and some of these estimates are going to be way off, but holy shit would I quickly do the following and then just go to fucking war:

  • Bauer = 4/$90M
  • Pederson = 2/$20M
  • McCann = 2/$14M
  • Colome = 2/$14M
  • Kluber = 1/$9M

2021 roster.PNG

I would be beyond shocked if McCann took a deal that low. I can see the Mets going after a few guys now with their rich owner and McCann getting paid there for example. 

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11 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

I would be beyond shocked if McCann took a deal that low. I can see the Mets going after a few guys now with their rich owner and McCann getting paid there for example. 

I think a lot of those prices seem too low, but they reflect a market adjustment due to COVID.  And the Mets could easily sign McCann, but they also could just go sign Realmuto.  This is going to be a fascinating offseason because the handful of teams prepared to spend a bit could really clean up.

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18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think a lot of those prices seem too low, but they reflect a market adjustment due to COVID.  And the Mets could easily sign McCann, but they also could just go sign Realmuto.  This is going to be a fascinating offseason because the handful of teams prepared to spend a bit could really clean up.

All the signs point to us being one of those teams.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I'm sure a ~$150M payroll target is unreasonable and some of these estimates are going to be way off, but holy shit would I quickly do the following and then just go to fucking war:

  • Bauer = 4/$90M
  • Pederson = 2/$20M
  • McCann = 2/$14M
  • Colome = 2/$14M
  • Kluber = 1/$9M

2021 roster.PNG

This👆
 

Bauer - whatever it takes 

Pederson - perfect platoon for Engel

McCann - Captain clubhouse needed with LaRussa here 

Colome - closer until the kids are ready 

Quintana - Lefty starter for the backend of the rotation 

 

Let’s go!

 

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2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I'm sure a ~$150M payroll target is unreasonable and some of these estimates are going to be way off, but holy shit would I quickly do the following and then just go to fucking war:

  • Bauer = 4/$90M
  • Pederson = 2/$20M
  • McCann = 2/$14M
  • Colome = 2/$14M
  • Kluber = 1/$9M

2021 roster.PNG

Love it! Great excel work also.

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1 hour ago, SoxAce said:

I would be beyond shocked if McCann took a deal that low. I can see the Mets going after a few guys now with their rich owner and McCann getting paid there for example. 

I'd be shocked if Bauer AAV is 22.5 but such is the market w/COVID. Need someone (Mets/Realmuto?) to stoke the hot stove with an aggressive signing and see if other teams jump in.

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If there was any year Bauer might actually take a 1 year deal, it’s this one. I see him more of a 1/$25 or 2/$50 type deal. 

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I know others disagree but I view TLR presence as positive as relates to FA signings. I can see him insisting on Bauer or ? and JR capitulating. Certainly improves chance of JR stepping up and, if not for COVID, I think we would go aggressively after several targets....we might anyway.

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Sox love and fear Carlos Santana. Looks like the perfect Sox candidate. Sox killer on the decline.

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6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I'm sure a ~$150M payroll target is unreasonable and some of these estimates are going to be way off, but holy shit would I quickly do the following and then just go to fucking war:

  • Bauer = 4/$90M
  • Pederson = 2/$20M
  • McCann = 2/$14M
  • Colome = 2/$14M
  • Kluber = 1/$9M

Great work, and great thought put into this.

Where I will differ is that I'd see Bauer getting a 9-figure offer, and more like 5+ years. He represents the top of the SP market, and I believe that the top FAs will get their money as usual. Also, at 30 years old, would he want to go back to FA at 34? I dunno. Spotrac had his market value at $21.7MM/per, but that was for last offseason. Bauer's reported market value a year ago.

With Kluber, he's 34, and coming off a shoulder injury? [Or was it an elbow?]. NO thanks to him, or ANY geezing geezers who want to come steal money at the end of their careers. We've seen that movie before, and we know how it will end.

I also don't know if McCann would take 2/$14MM. My guess is no, but its a guess.

 

OTOH:

IF Pederson can be pried away from the west coast, I'd love that contract. I also dunno if at 29 years old, that he's looking for a shorter or longer-term deal.

I'd also love the Colome deal. $7MM/per would be less than what was squandered on a number of players in recent memory for the SOX. I dunno what he'll ultimately get, but Spotrac had his value at $14.7MM/per a year ago. Given what is currently available on the open FA market, I don't see other possibilties that will be as attractive as a 32 year old who still looks like he has his FB velo.

 

I think I might go [and these are all wild guesses at this point]:

Stroman 3/$54MM + option(s) [$18MM/per]

Quintana 2/$24MM + option(s) [$12MM/per]

Your Pederson Contract 2/$20MM [$10MM/per], or Puig 1/$7MM + KW's favorite, incentives to keep him in line + option(s)

Colome, maybe 2/$24MM + options [$12MM/per]

Totals: $52MM added

 

Either way, JR will have to be talked into spending money, AND accepting the reality that no matter what, the White Sox will likely lose money, due to this pandemic. Here's hoping that he will, and that Assistant Team President TLR will approve such spending. Meanwhile, I'm sure they'll find something for RH to do. 

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7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 And the Mets could easily sign McCann, but they also could just go sign Realmuto. 

Everyone can't sign Realmuto. Only way Sox resign McCann is if they can guarantee him 120+ starts a year throughout his contract somehow. He's getting a starting job somewhere. He's outperformed 90+% of the catchers out there including Grandal since the beginning of '19 season.

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I see Tommy Kahnle elects free agency today from the Yankees. He pitched in only 1 game this season. But was decent in 19. In 18 was terrible. 

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If we can grab Bauer, this offseason looks a lot better than if we don't grab him.

IMO we really need a TOP of the rotation starter, not just bandaids and hold-me-overs. 

Kind of Bauer or bust IMO. 

A successful offseason without Bauer or a top of rotation starter would look like a Top tier RF bat like Conforto/Gallo/Ozuna/Springer + 2 mid level arms like Stroman/Quintana + Bullpen help

I think that's kinda a tough ask.

But to get Bauer + a good RF option isn't too much to fathom

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17 minutes ago, smellysox said:

I see Tommy Kahnle elects free agency today from the Yankees. He pitched in only 1 game this season. But was decent in 19. In 18 was terrible. 

He’s out for 2021

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10 minutes ago, fathom said:

He’s out for 2021

Was it tjs? I knew he was hurt this year.

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11 minutes ago, smellysox said:

Was it tjs? I knew he was hurt this year.

Yes. 

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Under the circumstances I'd think he'd have to consider taking that and going for the jack pot next off season. He has ten days to submit his decision.

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12 minutes ago, SouthWallace said:

 

This might discourage a number of teams interest in him. Maybe the sox too. 

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4 hours ago, SouthWallace said:

 

I think this means that Bauer will definitely set the market among SPs.

I'd still go with a 3 year deal for Stroman, with somewhere between $15Mm to $18MM/per.

(Edit): I previously had been against trading away comp picks to pickup FAs. But, if a comp pick will somewhat suppress Stroman's appeal (in an already-suppressed pandemic market), Im all for it. 

After all, if Steele Walker (46th pick) was supposedly worth the great Nomar Mazara, wouldn't a ~35th or so pick EASILY be worth Stroman? I think so.

Edited by Two-Gun Pete

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2 hours ago, SouthWallace said:

 

A month from now he might decide to accept that. 

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