Leaderboard

No.

I like many of your ideas. However...I want to be consistent in my view that Madrigal is untouchable. I understand that everyone is tradable but you have to draw the line somewhere.

Shoot, I forgot to clarify a few things: I overshot Wheeler a bit to ensure they get him. Let's adjust to 5/110 Trade for Price would include cash to knock down his yearly contract. 36 million sounds realistic (and we may even need to add lopez or dunning +...so he would be $20 mil a year Price 20 mil Rendon 34 mil Wheeler 22 mil Grandal 20 mil Abreu 18 mil (1 season only) Benintendi 4.9 mil New Salary - 119 mil this season 101 mil 2021 40 mil of assumed salary for roster Losing Sanchez 6.9 mil Goins 900 K so about 160 mil for 2020 and 140 mil for 2021 (obviously will be adjusted with losses and additions)

But you're failing to fill in your own logic loop. You're saying that teams want to pay $6 million per WAR because that's how they value players, but they wind up paying over $10 million because of injuries and poor performance. You're then discounting Price and Benintendi by that amount. But then you project Bummer's surplus value over the next 4 years, 3 of which are arb years, to be $30 million. He was worth 1.3 WAR/$10.2 million this year - so assuming he keeps those numbers up and was a dominant reliever the next 4 years, he'd produce $40 million in value the next 4 years and maybe be paid $10-$15 million for it through arbitration. To count him as $30 million - you're taking him at the full free agent value price for that position. So you're discounting Price and Benintendi, but then you're treating Bummer in the exact way you say you can't treat Price and Benintendi.

Price was no where near a 2 WAR pitcher this year. He accumulated 2.3 WAR in just 100 IP. Price has never had a FIP above 4.02. The demise of David Price has been greatly exaggerated because of his market and contract. Price and Benetendi for 32 million is more valuable than Cole for 32 million imo. I don't think it straps the Sox at all.

Price was on a 4.5 WAR pace this year. He's no longer a star, but he certainly is still a + starter who would liking get 20+ million a year if he was a FA. He's probably overpaid by about 30 million so Benetendis surplus value would negate that difference and the sox should only have to give up a middling prospect.

The Sox taking on Price's contract and getting Benintendi because of it makes all the sense in the world for both sides.

I know a trade might be coming and I would be in favor of most upgrades. I think Grandal would be a very good acquisition. I'm just concerned that Grandal plus other areas of need push the payroll too high for this year when next year will give us more time to assess areas of true need , Right now with so many young players it's real hard to pinpoint exactly what we need .Yes we know we need LH balance and more power, OBP, and pitching . My true hope is that by adding the pitching and that Kopech etc will rise to become what we all hope they will. I also hope Rodon and Dunning can also show signs of adding to that strength from which we can deal from. Stopgap option in areas other than pitching might be the way to go as long as we find talent that has been good consistently (Moustaskas) or whose value isn't appreciated (Dickerson). Or maybe a guy who is only a year removed from being very good (2018 All-Star ) like Gennett, but stunk because of injuries but won't be 30 until May. They all should be much easier to sign then others but provide a lot of upside and depth . Undervalued. Right now there is very little to trade who isn't the part of the expected core and they really do need the time to show what they have. If we don't find that out such as with Collins and the others we just don't have the payroll to keep filling roles with free agents. Despite what you personally think of Collins he did go back down the the minors, made adjustments and showed he is capable of more not just with the bat but as a catcher too. Remember people thought we were selling high on Narvaez , one of our best OBP guys, and he turned around and went even higher and might go higher still. The Sox just cannot afford to abandon ship on the very reasons why they rebuilt. The board is filled with people telling us Collins won't make it, McCann is the same McCann he was in Detroit, our OF prospects won't make it . Remember all the doubters of Giolito and Moncada ? Stay the course , don't trade prospects, don't bail out Boston's problems , don't take on bad contracts , don't trade for rentals, Almost everything we need could already be here whether it's Collins,Mercedes or any one of Basabe, Rutherford, Walker, Gonzalez or Adolfo, Continue to look for talent in the minors who seem blocked by guys ahead of them in the majors and undervalued guys in the majors. Maybe one day we can find a Tatis or a Muncy or a Yordan Alvarez or Juan Soto or to a lesser degree Trauchman, Mercado and Luplow. . Right when some of these guys are starting to blossom is no reason to trim the garden . Let it grow into something beautiful and strong.. Time and time again we hear how development isn't linear. It's time we started believing that. How strong would the Sox look right now with Tatis and Semien or even Narvaez.

Nomar Mazara is the Rangers version of Avisail Garcia.

Sure...but let’s be honest, your optimism knows no bounds. I am probably on the more optimistic side of most regular posters here, but am at least able to look at things objectively. You’re just a company yes man. Not that that is a bad thing..we all have our different ways of being a fan, but it’s also the truth. ??‍♂️ There is no realistic scenario in which the White Sox are sporting a 2020 payroll in excess $160M.

Avi is better than many people we have discussed here. If we spend a boat load on starting pitching & Grandal...a player like Avi might make sense.

I have every faith that JR will go 160+. That is just barely into the top third of baseball. They will put their money where the mouth has been.

If you could identify a single thing this board has guessed and been way off on every offseason it’s how much teams will give up just to rid themselves if bad contracts. But I’m sure this time it’s different, with one of the richest, most well run franchises in the game.

Me thinks a lot of people think Benintendi is better than he actually is.

I would very much say that the White Sox do not have the money to get whoever they want. Counting SP, RF, DH, Bullpen, and maybe catcher - they have 4+ positions where they need major upgrades to really be competitive. If you signed the best player on the market at all those positions you're easily over a $170 million payroll, and it seems unlikely that they'd want to go that high. They've developed some good players from their trades and their #1 picks, but they haven't found any big league regulars any other way, leaving them too many holes to fill to go for many premium guys. If acquiring someone like Mazara frees up money to spend $30 million on a starter, and it doesn't cost much in the way of trade assets, then it's a pretty plausible move. However, I still of course am skeptical that the White Sox will actually spend $30 million on a starter, even though I think it's a good way to spend their money.

of course you do.

Or you sign Moustakas and play him at 2B

Can we at least try to avoid going full Jace Fry on Bummer?? Or does this board HAVE to severely overrate every Sox player that has some success? It’s not like his peripherals were phenomenal and his FIP certainly doesn’t match up....I have a hard time believing any team is giving Bummer an evaluation of 10’s of millions right now

How did I discount him? Again, teams are not paying 9 million per WAR. I have no idea why people continue to cite a number that isnt based on what teams are paying for WAR but what teams are getting out of their dollars. Those are two dramatically different things. Do you notice that Castellanos isnt projected to earn 25 million a year? Do you notice how his contracts forecasts are coming in at the 15-17 million a year a year? Thats because 2-3 WAR players are worth about 6 million per WAR in free agency. Now pair that with the fact that defensive value is not paid as equally as offensive value and benetendi is worth even less. I'm not making the number up; I'm basing my forecasts based on what teams pays for projections not outcomes. I'm using 10+ years of data to determine a 6-7 million dollar number. 1 is worth about 5 million, 2 WAR is worth 12 million, 3 WAR is worth 18-20 million. It does not scale equally as you scale upward.

No. You sign Moustakas and move Moncada back to 2B.

Probably I like Stiever, but pitchers are volatile - as made by clear by Giolito and Lopez from 2018 to 2019 and Stiever himself from one level to another. 2 years ago Hansen was untouchable, now we probably couldn't give him away.

Unfortunately it likely won't be haha. I've been prone to pushing this thing along quicker in the past, but at this point, and this is a big IF, IF we are truly going to believe in JR to do this the right way, then that right way is to wait a year and go insane on Mookie Betts. Castanellos is a nice bat, makes good contact, hits a shit ton of doubles, good teammate, hard worker, etc. He's fine. But why plug a hole with a guy that we saw what his open market trade value was vs. Mookie? This 2020 team is not winning a WS so there's no reason to add long term, big spend FA yet. If we as a board look at last offseason we probably went into it thinking Moncada was a toolsy, but likely overrated bust and a replacement level or so player at 2B .... this offseason we think he walks on the moon and are okay with passing on Anthony Rendon at 3B. Same with Giolito .... we have a totally different outlook on Reynaldo Lopez too. The thing is we need to do that again & see what we have in a bunch of guys. The good news is that this year probably represents a year where baseball shoudl be fun to watch all year with the Sox. So enjoy the last season of cheaper tickets, short bathroom lines, competitive baseball and watching the likes of a Collins, Madrigal, Robert, Eloy, Cease, Kopech learn and struggle and grow. Outside of a few guys (Cole, Rendon ... maybe Strasburg ... ) there aren't a whole ton of guys I think we should really be breaking the bank for because it's likely to be more of an impediment to our true Championship window which begins in 2022 (2021 if all goes extremely well) True window goes back to what I'll always say **** 2021 might be us looking like the Braves and winning 90 games or the Astros winning 85-86 their first year when they lost to the Royals in the ALDS, or Cubs before their WS year. The talent will likely be there, but has to cure, learn how to win, be able to have pitching depth, etc. It may happen, but would be highly unlikely... 2022 is the year. (also that is assuming all players take positive steps forward... again... you look at the Cubs and almost any other team ever.... you have players who take steps forward, but also those who fall off..... Cubs fans thought their window would be ongoing forever.... look how quickly someone like a Happ or Schwarber not doing their job... or Addison Russell ... or even to an extent Kris Bryant .... etc etc. guys will regress. Moncada might not be the stud he was last year. Giolito may fall into old habits... things happen. injuries happen. That's why when you do win a WS its so damn satisfying.. everyhting has to fall into place. So my stance is to urge patience. We don't need another Herrera at $9mm a year for 3 years ... we need to save that money and apply it next offseason and the offseason after that.

Boston has a lot of what the White Sox are looking for this offseason. Any of their starting three outfielders would be a better fit defensively than any of the options free agency has to offer. If the White Sox swing and miss in free agency the right deal with Boston could make sense for both teams.

A bullpen pitcher with only 1 year pre-arb remaining and a guy in the low minors? I don't think that comes close to Benintendi alone.

Just because the Metropolitans did something stupid doesn't mean we have to. The other comp here is the Adrian Gonzalez deal, where the Dodgers basically gave the Red Sox nothing IIRC.

This is where our sweet sweet boy danny salazar comes in.

It will be more fun for all of us to watch you make an excuse and complain about all of Nick Madrigals successes at the MLB level. Remember when he went 4-5 or 5-5 in Triple A and you said they would have all been outs in the big leagues? That was funny. The Sox should have no interest in moving Madrigal. He is what this team desperately needs - an elite defensive player who never strikes out, works counts and is as smart of a baseball player as you'll find. He is one of the key pieces this team was missing this year.

Why would Eloy move to right when Benetendi is, by far, the superior defender. An outfield of benetendi and robert would be electric defensively even with Eloy in left. Robert could shade eloy way and likely compensate himself for Eloys lack of range.

8/260 with 'unlikely to be earned incentives' to make it 10/350? We're at the table, and our offer will trump even a guaranteed offer of 10/350! IT'S ALL BINARY!

Anything is possible, but why would the Sox give up assets for JD Martinez when Nick Castellanos is available for nothing but money. Not even draft picks? Seems unlikely.

All the money the Sox have given to stiffs the past few years like Jay and Alonso and you are worried about a few bucks here and there? As low as the Sox payroll has been for Jerry, why not give a fan favorite like Jose some well deserved cash? The guy led the AL in RBIs and hit 33 bombs and we act like he's going to need a wheelchair to get to the plate in 2 seasons.

If he has Cuban blood does that mean he's really like 33?

Those two and then quite a few pitchers. I only see the Sox giving out two big contracts this offseason (at most), so if they sign Castellanos, then i think the Grandal + good starting pitcher hope is dead. To me, Castellanos should be a backup plan if they don't land Grandal.

In fact I will save you the trouble Ray. Here is that exchange. He said the Sox, not Chicago itself, and he is right. The fact that we are even compared to the Rays and Royals speaks volumes. I think his point is that if money is almost equal, top players will not be picking us. We'd essentially have to force players to pick us by overpaying.

Because they weren't even close....

All you have to know is last year Buster Olney who isn’t a clown, actually laughed when others suggested the White Sox would sign Harper and/or Machado. i don’t think it is being a clown to assume the White Sox will not sign the top guys until they actually do. Let’s face it, $68 million is still their record contract. The Red Sox have a bigger one playing AAA. I fully expect them to convert on a household name this year. Then Rick will “check his box”, and it will be Back to business as usual just like with international free agents after they signed Robert. They will have to hord money to be able to keep their young players.

For the record, the cardinals pushed back against the notion once it leaked as they should have; you dont want your fans of team thinking you offered more but someone did not want to play for you. All the reports immediately following the signing said the White Sox didnt offer the most. How accurate that is, I'm not sure as I dont have first hand knowledge.

I've heard players complain about GRF being half empty. It makes a negative impression on opposing players. There have been multiple reports of this.

Last year one team gave a legit offer to Manny. Harper probably had two such offers. And by legit offers I mean offers they'd strongly consider signing. This year I think the top pitchers get 3 such offers. I think the secondary pitchers like Wheeler will get 4 such offers. Grandal may get 5 such offers.

National reporting. From what I heard, 2/3 of the teams in the league are expected to be active participants this year. They want to get Tony Clark to STFU a bit. Really, only the hard rebuilders are going to be out. (KC/Detroit/Seattle/Miami/Toronto/Pittsburgh)

It’s somewhere on this site. It was during his press conference. This source you cited says might have. Plus letting him waste a summer in the DR for tax purposes also helped. If the Sox want to sign guys, just like any other team, they better be prepared to offer the most money, The pitch to sell their ability to build a team so come work for us for less didn’t work with Tanaka, it didn’t work with Ohtani. They made a nice video for Harper, but when they found out money was the priority, they quickly dropped out. They were $50 million short with Machado. Hahn said they were very interested in Michael Brantley, but he wanted to win. Maybe some day players will want to be White Sox, and may be willing to take slight discounts to make it happen,The league as a whole loves Chicago. But right now, they are just another team, one where winning doesn’t occur very often.

This is not under dispute. Clearly, if a team over pays they become the favorite. When things are neck and neck, which is the case with a many FAs, what sets teams apart? And this makes our situation worse because we refuse to overspend on quality FAs with the exception of the cheaper Cuban guys.

Based on what? Seems like you have blind optimism. What makes this off-season a fail to you? As long as we spend 40M you are happy?

It isn't a one or the other thing. The Sox dont get top players at market value when other teams are involved because they are not as desirable. In turn, the Sox do not overpay top players due to their lack of desirability either. I would have no problem if Cole says he hates JR and Kenny, but still signs because we give him the biggest deal. But, odds are we won't.

Nobody is saying they won't sign anyone. But who cares if we sign a 4 or 5 starting pitcher and an average RF/DH? Where does that get us? I think they are going to end up overpaying for average talent. We won't sign a top 5 FA (Cole, Rendon, Stras, Grandal, Wheeler) IMO.

I agree but be ready to be disappointed, I don't think we will get either.

That it is very possible we can strike out in free agency again even though all signs point to us being big players? You make it seem like it is a guarantee we are going to sign quality players but people were saying the same thing last year when there wasn't as high of a market as there will be this year.

At this point it is not assuming the worst. Rick Hahn's FA signings tell a terrifying tale. He has another chance to change this narrative this year, so we shall see.

The Sox have at least a dozen different options for RF and they are all flawed in their own way. Most of them in multiple ways. Whether it's handedness, lack of RF arm, salary, injury history, lack of OBP, lack of overall defense, high acquisition cost, contract, etc. there is something to knock on just about all the guys out there. As opposed to last year when Harper fit what this team needed exactly (and still does). The free agent options aren't good fits for the team and no one is exactly excited to trade any of the prospects because of reasonable concerns over the depth of the system. With all that in mind, I am still not all that concerned about right field. There is no doubt that right field is a black hole that needs to be addressed but I am much more concerned on the quality of the targets the Sox convert on at SP and at the C/DH/WE positions. 1. Yasmani Grandal 2. Josh Donaldson 3. Anthony Rendon 4. JD Martinez 5. Gerrit Cole 6. Stephen Strasburg. These are the players they need to pursue (in no particular order) and actually sign. Given the volume of RF's that will be on the market there should be a solid deal or two to fall into. The Sox need a headliner though. They need to show they're serious and take advantage of the payroll situation they created for this exact purpose. If they do that, everything else may actually fall into place.

Stop with the trying to improve one position by weakening another one.