Yes but who ISN'T a huge risk? Robbie Ray is two years older and as recently as 2020 had an ERA of nearly 7. Yes he's coming off a great year...but he's pitched 8 years in the majors and has had a WAR above 1 twice. Plus the predictions are he will be 4/$100m and costs a draft pick. Would you bet your life that he would have a better year than Keuchel? Keuchel's had 6 seasons with WAR above 2. Yes Ray's stuff is sexier and he had a much better 2021...but Keuchel's already on the team and had a MUCH better 2020.
Stroman? Would be our 5th righty and probably #5...5/$90 plus draft pick would be a lot to pay for a guy that is 31 and been a 2 WAR pitcher.
Max, Verlander and Kershaw have been amazing...but huge risk.
Again part of the goal I think should be threading the needle and getting multiple WS's. Rodon was 3rd overall pick in the draft, had brief touches with greatness and then arm trouble. There are pitchers that have a history of early arm trouble that then come through it. I detailed in an earlier thread about Mike Minor...missed two complete seasons and then put up 14 WAR in the next three. Rodon was amazing last year...what everyone thought he could be. Yes he wore down after 130 inning but he basically didn't pitch for two years before that...building up arm strength IS a thing. A dominating lefty power pitcher is what the White Sox need. There are really only three reasons the White Sox didn't put a QO on Rodon--1, Soxtalk preferred belief that the White Sox are idiots, 2. They think his arm is about to fall off and they are worried he would accept the free $18 million. 3. They are keeping everyone guessing...playing footsie with Boras and Rodon and if his market is soft they have good will to get him for say 3/$50, Of all the moves they could make this winter I would most like to see that.