Couple interesting things to note about Clevinger. His K rate was horrible this year, but what’s interesting is his four seamer was basically the same as it was in 2018 in terms of velocity, spin rate, & movement. His declining K rate has more to do with his slider and curveball than anything else. The curve was simply not effective this year and he cut its usage substantially. The slider was still effective at generating whiffs, but not as strong as 2018 and he made more mistakes with the pitch given the sizable increase in ISO against. However, his spin rates for both breaking balls was as good or better than 2018.
Not sure if he was dealing with rust coming off TJS or if the knee injury he dealt with hurt his mechanics / command, but it seems like the pure stuff might still be at 2018 levels when he put up a 3.52 FIP and 4.2 fWAR over 200 innings. He’s obviously not going to average 6.25 innings per start and I think we can rule out 32 starts right out of the gate. However, I think we can probably get ~135 innings out of him next year and that could be worth 2.5 to 3.0 wins. Obviously there are no guarantees and he could easily bust, but I think there is reason for optimism here and it doesn’t require him returning to his Cy Young caliber form from 2019.