One I really wish people would understand- they need WAY more than just to stay healthy. They lost some to injury last year, but they offset a lot of their injury losses with ridiculous performances from Cueto, Andrus, Zavala, and a couple others - some of those you would never repeat if you replayed the season a thousand times. And no matter how many dumb decisions their manager made, they also outplayed their projected record by several games thanks to a stellar performance in 1-run games - either surprisingly lucky or some actual decent coaching. And from there, they’ve lost Abreu, now they’ve lost Hendriks.
Their ZiPS record is below .500 and in third place in the division, and that includes a lot of guys being healthier than last year and pretty well justified expected numbers. That didn’t include Benintendi, but it has the White Sox with one of the best bullpens in baseball led by their top reliever, Hendriks.
They need a lot of guys to return to form or even break out. If Robert is only a .790 OPS guy but healthy (same as last year before the wrist injury), he’s a very good player, but not an all star in this league and that doesn’t make this a title team. If Vaughn puts up a .815 OPS, that’s better than any year of his career and pretty weak for replacing Abreu. That’s where ZiPS has them both, and neither were great. If Giolito isn’t strong without the sticky stuff, then their rotation is pretty weak. If Lynn and Kelly are healthier but have inconsistent stretches because of their ages, that’s not a health problem and it is a huge issue. If Moncada has fewer injuries but still hits .230, that’s not a strong 3b. If the rookies aren’t really good, then they have several lineup black holes. I can keep doing this, there’s SO MANY. Grandal. Eloy. Bummer. Anderson (see his defense last year). Their entire bench.
On top of that, Cleveland could absolutely be better than last year. Super young team, extremely talented, one of the leagues best coaches, they could win this division even if a lot of things go right for the White Sox. The division could easily be stronger than last year, the White Sox beat up Detroit and Detroit was WAY more injured than the White Sox - we had a series against them when their top 5 starting pitchers were on the IL. Just imagine the losing streak if that happened to the White Sox, it might be 25 games. If Detroit plays better, that’s a big worry, and you no longer get 19 games against them, you get to face all the NLs teams including the NL East.
They need tons of guys to return to form in things that had nothing to do with injury. Plus, they need tons of guys to break out into what they’ve never been. And then they need other teams not to step up and outperform them. Just to talk about this as a 90 win team they need nearly everything to go right. Not just injuries, almost no one can disappoint, which is a tough standard.
It isn’t impossible, it could absolutely happen, but it is way more than just staying healthy. No one should underestimate how much needs to go differently here. If they are healthier than last year but everyone performs like they did last year they might finish in 4th place. They need these guys to fundamentally transform into different players from what they were last year.
That’s why it’s not just health, it’s a setup where Grifol will absolutely deserve manager of the year if it happens. He has to coach a lot of guys into players that they have never been or where you’d be stunned if they pulled it off at their ages. It can happen, but boy after last year I hate hearing people talk about how simple this will be, how all it takes is a little better health, and how they don’t respect our opponents after all the braggadocio last year about how easy it would be and how that worked out.