Steamer projects our positional group to put up 14.3 fWAR next year. That would have ranked 23rd overall last year, so still in the bottom 25% of teams. However, it does reflect a 20.6 win improvement over the -6.3 fWAR we got out of our positional group last year. I keep seeing people saying that this roster is worse than last year, but I really doubt that is the case. Last year’s group was the 10th least productive in baseball history per Fangraphs. Like just getting replacement production at C, 3B, & RF is worth nearly seven wins alone. And beyond that, there are plenty of rebound candidates, Robert being the biggest and most likely one even if he suffers through some injuries.
The pitching staff is definitely worse on paper and is only projected for 5.7 fWAR next year. That would have ranked 29th in all of baseball last year and reflects a 4.1 win decrease from this past season for us. When combined with the positional group, that’s a 16.5 fWAR improvement YoY despite the loss of Crochet and Fedde and no meaningful external additions. I personally think the positional group projections are too optimistic, but again, just replacing the guys who had no business being on a major league roster with slightly above replacement level talent wil make a huge difference.
Gun to my head right now, I think this team wins 55+ games next year. Losing Robert would change that for me, but I think a 49.5 O/U is an absolutely absurd line and everyone should be pumping the over because it’s really fucking hard to win less than 50 games in a season.