Genuine progress

[bmags]

We know offensively we've been better in the second half. How it has been done has been reassuring to me that we are scouting and have a better young core.

Offensively, I'm sure we are aware that post ASB we have been an actual very good offense. That has helped us be a .500 team in the second half despite a very bad pitching staff.

But there is one area I appreciate because even if you isolate our no-good offense of April and May showed immediate, genuine progress.

Team BB%+:

• In 2022, our 81-81 team had a BB%+ of 80, which is 20% below league average and also last in the league.
• In 2023, our team BB%+ was 75, which is both 25% below league average but also last in the league. That was a 100 loss team obviously.
• In 2024, our team BB%+ was 83, which is 17% below average and amazingly just 29th in the league.

While 2022 could be passable because we struck out less, and did so with league average power, by the time that we get to 2024 we are striking out more, walking less, and when we do hit it, it's for grounders.

In 2025, our BB%+ is 102, which is 2% above average and 11th in the league. Our K% is 100, so we are just average in strikeouts (17th in league). What makes our offense still relatively tepid is the power.

So this is, finally, a real reversal into a trend that was just extremely stuck. Much of that was players, but we had a lot of differentplayers during that 3 year stretch. This year, the MLB vets we got were able to provide actual bases not just generated by hits, but so was our talent from the farm coming up and not being embarrassing in their approach.

What makes me genuinely even happier is if you isolate it to just April and May of 2025, when our offense was bad,  we had a 107 BB%+ which was good for 11th overall in the league. They struck out MUCH more early, and had zero power.

So even if you say we are buoyed by a hot stretch, this pattern has seemed genuinely durable across some different groups of players.

A funny part is - hey wait Colson isn't necessarily an amazing part of this - ...

Well post July 4th, with our loss of a few vet hitters and rise of Colson and younger bats, our Walk rate does go down to 96 and 20th in league, but our K rate is actually 90 - so we strike out 10% less than the rest of the MLB. We actually have the 5th lowest K%+ since Colson came up.

But our power IMPROVED. pre Colson our Power ISO+ was 73, now it is 106 post Colson. 

So BBs went down, Ks went way down, and power went way up.

But most importantly, we stopped this 3 year long trend of being bottom of the league in BB%+. In 2021, when we had good offense, we were second in league in BB%+ at 114 (thanks Grandal).

We have more work to do to be the best team in baseball, but this is the kind of real progress I like to see. Shows across the board better execution in scouting, coaching, and players.
 

[GreenSox]

Thanks for the post:    well-researched, reasoned and full of information

I certainly like the changed org approach toward taking the walks.  
But I wonder if it's for everyone.  Robert has a near 10% walk rate this year (way high for him) but has had a poor year overall.  (His absence the last few weeks may be a reason the team walk rate is down,)
Sosa is an ever improving hitter, but his walk rate is way low.  He certainly needs to improve his OBP to be a complete hitter,  and that will require more walks; but you don't want to completely mute his aggression.  He also has a very reasonable K rate, and more looking-Ks is often a result of looking for more walks.
I also like the idea of a couple of hitters in the lineup being "Against the grain" -- not OBP guys.

[Harry Chappas]

I feel like Getz has been preaching this and is actually following through on implementation.

[bmags]

22 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Thanks for the post:    well-researched, reasoned and full of information

I certainly like the changed org approach toward taking the walks.  
But I wonder if it's for everyone.  Robert has a near 10% walk rate this year (way high for him) but has had a poor year overall.  (His absence the last few weeks may be a reason the team walk rate is down,)
Sosa is an ever improving hitter, but his walk rate is way low.  He certainly needs to improve his OBP to be a complete hitter,  and that will require more walks; but you don't want to completely mute his aggression.  He also has a very reasonable K rate, and more looking-Ks is often a result of looking for more walks.
I also like the idea of a couple of hitters in the lineup being "Against the grain" -- not OBP guys.

Sadly in July it looked like a beautiful combo.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said:

I feel like Getz has been preaching this and is actually following through on implementation.

You can scream about taking walks until you're blue in the face but you gotta have the right mix of guys. Getz got pretty lucky that Colson is hitting his 99th percentile projection (and even if he regresses he's still a solid starter next year) as otherwise the lineup doesn't have much pop -- but he did a nice job bringing in guys with a good approach. I tend to think you need a "critical mass" of good swing decisions in a lineup otherwise guys start to press. It's easier to hit when the pitcher is constantly going deep in counts.

 

[DoUEvenShift]

What makes this even more impressive is that the Sox are ranked dead last in umpire scoring so far this season. Anyone who's been watching sees how often we get screwed, and it's actually trackable, not just us being homers and salty at umps.

The silver lining here is that based on this trend the Sox will have the largest benefit in all of MLB when ABS is (hopefully) implemented next year. 

[chitownsportsfan]

13 minutes ago, DoUEvenShift said:

What makes this even more impressive is that the Sox are ranked dead last in umpire scoring so far this season. Anyone who's been watching sees how often we get screwed, and it's actually trackable, not just us being homers and salty at umps.

The silver lining here is that based on this trend the Sox will have the largest benefit in all of MLB when ABS is (hopefully) implemented next year. 

Are those run values (or at least some approximation?) That's fucking insane. That's a 4 win difference between worst umped and best umped. Holy s%*#. 

[DoUEvenShift]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Are those run values (or at least some approximation?) That's fucking insane. That's a 4 win difference between worst umped and best umped. Holy s%*#. 

Yes, it's run expectancy.   https://umpscorecards.com/  They have a bunch of info there if you wanna see how they calculate everything

[WBWSF]

All I can say is The White Sox Are Coming, Tra La, Tra La!!!!

[kitekrazy]

9 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

All I can say is The White Sox Are Coming, Tra La, Tra La!!!!

Eh,  Reinsdorf is still in charge.  He has a habit ruining things.

[DoUEvenShift]

14 minutes ago, DoUEvenShift said:

Yes, it's run expectancy.   https://umpscorecards.com/  They have a bunch of info there if you wanna see how they calculate everything

Actually now looking at the individual breakdown it's our pitchers getting screwed that puts us dead last, not batters. I need to read more about how they weigh and calculate everything after work.

That said if you look at the average batter impact we've had negative values all but one year they have been tracking since 2015.

Edited September 8 by DoUEvenShift

[Rounding_Third]

Yeah boy was I ever wrong about the Getz hiring as I fiercely criticized it! 

This turnaround has been so fast and nearly all under his guidance.  His decisions and hirings have all been outstanding!

Geesh, that Crochet trade alone!  Wow!

Kudos Monsieur Getz!  

Edited September 8 by Rounding_Third

[chitownsportsfan]

15 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

Yeah boy was I ever wrong about the Getz hiring as I fiercely criticized it! 

This turnaround has been so fast and nearly all under his guidance.  His decisions and hirings have all been outstanding!

Geesh, that Crochet trade alone!  Wow!

Kudos Monsieur Getz!  

The greatest trick Getz ever played was anchoring expectations of 120 losses in year one. I'm not kidding. As I said I'll give him a solid C+ for this season but dude since he took over we're like 90 and 200. 

[fathom]

26 minutes ago, DoUEvenShift said:

Actually now looking at the individual breakdown it's our pitchers getting screwed that puts us dead last, not batters. I need to read more about how they weigh and calculate everything after work.

That said if you look at the average batter impact we've had negative values all but one year they have been tracking since 2015.

Isn’t this where Quero being one or the worst framers of the last decade comes into play?

[PaleAleSox]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

You can scream about taking walks until you're blue in the face but you gotta have the right mix of guys. Getz got pretty lucky that Colson is hitting his 99th percentile projection (and even if he regresses he's still a solid starter next year) as otherwise the lineup doesn't have much pop -- but he did a nice job bringing in guys with a good approach. I tend to think you need a "critical mass" of good swing decisions in a lineup otherwise guys start to press. It's easier to hit when the pitcher is constantly going deep in counts.

 

I do think Teel and Quero will show more power in the next year or two, and Vargas probably a little more as well. Just really need a left fielder who is almost pure power, since Braden is more of an all around guy. 

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, PaleAleSox said:

I do think Teel and Quero will show more power in the next year or two, and Vargas probably a little more as well. Just really need a left fielder who is almost pure power, since Braden is more of an all around guy. 

Yea power can come from DH and the corner spots. I'd like to see Beni as the odd man out more next year and give all of his 30 or so DH starts to Teel and Quero and Sosa. Park Vargas at 3B, Colson and SS and then work in Chase at 2B with Sosa while making sure Sosa starts 5 times a week at some rotation of 1B, 2B, DH.

[Quin]

13 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The greatest trick Getz ever played was anchoring expectations of 120 losses in year one. I'm not kidding. As I said I'll give him a solid C+ for this season but dude since he took over we're like 90 and 200. 

I love that the success of the Crochet trade has erased everyone's memories of the disastrous Cease trade.

[DoUEvenShift]

7 minutes ago, fathom said:

Isn’t this where Quero being one or the worst framers of the last decade comes into play?

Certainly a part of it. But even if he continues sucking at it just another reason that ABS helps. Framing will eventually become obsolete. 

[chw42]

11 minutes ago, Quin said:

I love that the success of the Crochet trade has erased everyone's memories of the disastrous Cease trade.

If Thorpe doesn't come back and become at least a back of the rotation starter, we basically just gave Cease away for free. Iriarte has been awful. Zavala has no pop. Wilson is whatever. 

[chitownsportsfan]

15 minutes ago, Quin said:

I love that the success of the Crochet trade has erased everyone's memories of the disastrous Cease trade.

 

3 minutes ago, chw42 said:

If Thorpe doesn't come back and become at least a back of the rotation starter, we basically just gave Cease away for free. Iriarte has been awful. Zavala has no pop. Wilson is whatever. 

It's still hard to believe Wilson was part of that trade. Getz earns a A for that Crochet trade so far and an F for this one. Overall a straight C imo.

[Quin]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

 

It's still hard to believe Wilson was part of that trade. Getz earns a A for that Crochet trade so far and an F for this one. Overall a straight C imo.

Tra La La!

[wegner]

33 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Yea power can come from DH and the corner spots. I'd like to see Beni as the odd man out more next year and give all of his 30 or so DH starts to Teel and Quero and Sosa. Park Vargas at 3B, Colson and SS and then work in Chase at 2B with Sosa while making sure Sosa starts 5 times a week at some rotation of 1B, 2B, DH.

100% agree

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

The offense is undeniably better and has taken a positive step in the right direction. 

My only hesitance is that most of this is driven by guys we acquired from other orgs who had developed a lot within those orgs. Guys like Teel, Tauchman and Vargas are lifting heavy on the walk side, and guys like Quero and Miedroth are carrying some good weight on the strikeout side.

In order for me to trust the organizational change, I'd like to see us scout and develop this more than scout and trade for it. 

That said, they have 7 guys who are league average or better with the bat. Of those seven though, only TWO grade out + as defenders (Monty and Teel). Progress is progress, but a lot of room to go.

On the flip side though, almost all the growth we've seen offensively has regressed on the pitching side which is a huge bummer. 

Edited September 8 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Rounding_Third said:

Yeah boy was I ever wrong about the Getz hiring as I fiercely criticized it! 

This turnaround has been so fast and nearly all under his guidance.  His decisions and hirings have all been outstanding!

Geesh, that Crochet trade alone!  Wow!

Kudos Monsieur Getz!  

The White Sox have the second worst record in MLB.

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The offense is undeniably better and has taken a positive step in the right direction. 

My only hesitance is that most of this is driven by guys we acquired from other orgs who had developed a lot within those orgs. Guys like Teel, Tauchman and Vargas are lifting heavy on the walk side, and guys like Quero and Miedroth are carrying some good weight on the strikeout side.

In order for me to trust the organizational change, I'd like to see us scout and develop this more than scout and trade for it. 

That said, they have 7 guys who are league average or better with the bat. Of those seven though, only TWO grade out + as defenders (Monty and Teel). Progress is progress, but a lot of room to go.

On the flip side though, almost all the growth we've seen offensively has regressed on the pitching side which is a huge bummer. 

I said this during the last rebuild, and still stand by it.  We can try to sell the guys who we traded for all we like, but if the farm system Chris Getz hired someone new to be in charge isn't hugely more successful than the farm system Chris Getz himself was in charge of, this is all just masterbation theater.  It's all about player development.  Hell at this phase of the last rebuild, Rick Hahn was getting GM of the year mentions.