Samardzija/Hammel Traded to A's

[southsider2k5]

This isn't true though. That place will be packed as soon as next year when the kids are there. They didn't want to sign Samardzija. They offered him that lowball deal so that he'd turn it down and they could trade him. He is already going to be 30 and not worth $100 + annually. They could have signed Samardzija. They chose not to.

 

The team has blown through their waiting list, and it is hemmoraging fans right now. The longer this goes on, it will take more than just "kids" to bring people back. Their attendance hasn't been this low since 1997, and it is down 8500 per night over their peak. As Sox fans know, you don't make that up overnight.

 

I know many Sox fans have this built in inferiority complex and irrational fear of the Cubs, but the facts are the facts. The longer this drags out, the more it takes to make up the fall in numbers. Trading off your top pitcher will make this process years longer. Even if they kids do start arriving in 2016, it will take them a couple of years to fit in and see a comfort level. They also aren't all going to arrive at the same time. They aren't all going to make it either. There will be some failures of those "can't miss" guys. All you have to do is look at the ups and downs of their first wave of guys like Rizzo, Castro, and Smarj to see that.

 

We have seen this scenario play out over and over and over, through out major league baseball. A full rebuild takes an incredibly long time, if ever, to succeed. The longer it takes, the more it will eat away at that fan base.

[Quin]

This isn't true though. That place will be packed as soon as next year when the kids are there. They didn't want to sign Samardzija. They offered him that lowball deal so that he'd turn it down and they could trade him. He is already going to be 30 and not worth $100 + annually. They could have signed Samardzija. They chose not to.

 

Not many pitchers are worth $100M per year.

 

And it won't be packed till they're winning. A lot of casual Cubs fans I know HATED that deal and told me they're done with prospects and want to just win a couple games.

 

The more baseball fanatic ones get excited, but the casual ticket buying fan couldn't give a f*** until they're at least in playoff hunts.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Not many pitchers are worth $100M per year.

 

And it won't be packed till they're winning. A lot of casual Cubs fans I know HATED that deal and told me they're done with prospects and want to just win a couple games.

 

The more baseball fanatic ones get excited, but the casual ticket buying fan couldn't give a f*** until they're at least in playoff hunts.

 

Not sure about this. I mean, every Cubs site I've been on the fans are acting like Bulls fans when they beat the Heat in January. They're pretty damn stoked from what I've seen.

[BlackSox13]

Not sure about this. I mean, every Cubs site I've been on the fans are acting like Bulls fans when they beat the Heat in January. They're pretty damn stoked from what I've seen.

Yeah they are and understandably so. If the fans are hyped (which they are), attendance numbers should rise as these prospects are called up. Jersey sales for the prospects should help with the finances too.

 

I think after all these years cub fans got tired of wasting money to see a bunch of over paid hacks and decided to stay home until the cubs put something on the field to get excited about. As long as the economy holds out, the cub fans will return to their crumbling palace in time.

[Chicago White Sox]

I think arguing the Cubs won't have money to spend in a few years is pretty ridiculous, but having said that, buying top end starting pitching in free agency is typically a losing investment. Giving David Price $20M+/year for 7 years won't end pretty for them and that's if they are the lucky winners. Trading Shark was no doubt the right move, but they'll have to go outside the organization to add a #1 & #2 starter, which will be both expensive and risky. Obviously it could still work out for them, but I think developing your own starting pitching is a much safer way to ensure long-term success.

[southsider2k5]

Not many pitchers are worth $100M per year.

 

And it won't be packed till they're winning. A lot of casual Cubs fans I know HATED that deal and told me they're done with prospects and want to just win a couple games.

 

The more baseball fanatic ones get excited, but the casual ticket buying fan couldn't give a f*** until they're at least in playoff hunts.

 

Maybe in years prior, but more and more, that is becoming a "normal" contract for a good pitcher, not just a great pitcher.

[Dick Allen]

Name one of those $100+ million megadeals for a starting pitcher that the signing team would repeat if they had 20/20 hindsight over the last 10-15 years???

 

Tanaka's about the only one, and you probably won't be able to say that 3-4 years down the line when he inevitably breaks down or has TJ surgery.

Greinke.

[Balta1701]

Name one of those $100+ million megadeals for a starting pitcher that the signing team would repeat if they had 20/20 hindsight over the last 10-15 years???

 

Tanaka's about the only one, and you probably won't be able to say that 3-4 years down the line when he inevitably breaks down or has TJ surgery.

I still have not seen the Yankees show any willingness to give back the 2009 world series trophy that they won with Captain Cheeseburger.

[Quin]

Maybe in years prior, but more and more, that is becoming a "normal" contract for a good pitcher, not just a great pitcher.

 

It was a joke.

 

$100M per year.

 

As in he makes $100M each year.

 

A five year deal would be $500M.

 

That's the going rate now. 5/$75M wouldn't have been an insult to Shark a few years ago. Now? Easy $100M. Makes Sale and Q's deals look amazing.

[southsider2k5]

It was a joke.

 

$100M per year.

 

As in he makes $100M each year.

 

A five year deal would be $500M.

 

That's the going rate now. 5/$75M wouldn't have been an insult to Shark a few years ago. Now? Easy $100M. Makes Sale and Q's deals look amazing.

 

D'oh. Totally misread that.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Not many pitchers are worth $100M per year.

 

And it won't be packed till they're winning. A lot of casual Cubs fans I know HATED that deal and told me they're done with prospects and want to just win a couple games.

 

The more baseball fanatic ones get excited, but the casual ticket buying fan couldn't give a f*** until they're at least in playoff hunts.

 

 

Cubs fans that hate that deal are stupid. Those same fans that hate it will be back when the team is winning though. I always ask people if they like Jake Arrieta. Or Kris Bryant. If they say yes, then they have to like the current plan in my opinion. You can't be overly excited about the prospect of a Kris Bryant and gaga for Arrieta and be pissed that Samardzija and Hammel got traded. Arrieta and Bryant and all those other guys wouldn't be in the organization without the current plan. If people were smart, this is exactly the time that they would buy Cubs season tickets.

[Jake]

It's a deal where you can hate the plan and be disappointed that the trade signals the continuation of that plan. At the same time, it's not like the plan doesn't come without its benefits - you can get a good young player in trade like Russell. Some of them will turn out.

[caulfield12]

I still have not seen the Yankees show any willingness to give back the 2009 world series trophy that they won with Captain Cheeseburger.

 

 

Well, then by this definition, the Greinke deal isn't a great one for LA unless they win a World Series, for example.

 

I'd say, until now, it has been a good/fair contract for both sides, but I'm not going to argue it's any kind of bargain exactly when it's $147 million dollars.

[Quin]

It's really this. The Cubs fans on Facebook are going to be pissed. The Cubs fans who watched the news the other day and saw the Cubs swept the BoSox at Fenway are going to be pissed but the Cubs SoxTalk equivalent, I think it's bleedcubbieblue, is probably ecstatic and they should be. I think Billy Beane has to be worried about Addison Russell's long term health to even make this deal. I don't understand the inclusion of Hammel either. If I am Oakland I don't see the need to replace Strailey/Milone with Hammel.

 

I don't disagree.

 

My point being the Cubs fans on facebook make up a significant portion of the ticket purchasing fanbase.

[caulfield12]

It's really this. The Cubs fans on Facebook are going to be pissed. The Cubs fans who watched the news the other day and saw the Cubs swept the BoSox at Fenway are going to be pissed but the Cubs SoxTalk equivalent, I think it's bleedcubbieblue, is probably ecstatic and they should be. I think Billy Beane has to be worried about Addison Russell's long term health to even make this deal. I don't understand the inclusion of Hammel either. If I am Oakland I don't see the need to replace Strailey/Milone with Hammel.

 

 

Looking at recent playoff team history, Beane's taking no chances.

 

He said the probability that Gray, Kazmir, Chavez and the two Cubs starters make every single start the 2nd half is nearly zero.

 

Keep in mind, these are all going to be new workload territories in terms of IP for Gray and especially Chavez....and Kazmir hasn't exactly pitched 200 innings for five consecutive seasons, either.

 

Milone is insurance, just with a lot higher upside (2.62 ERA and 6-0 over his last 11 starts) than Straily. Same thing with Hammel's presence on the A's. They're both more experienced than Straily, as well.

[Kyyle23]

lol, Samardzija has been absolutely destroying the Cubs the last two days. He was very obviously unhappy with the rebuilding

[Eminor3rd]

I disagree. It really risky trading away MLB pitching for hitting suspects no matter how good they may be. It's probably a good deal when you need to factor in how they will acquire any pitching.

 

Although they will get the best pitcher in next year's draft now

 

But by all accounts, they tried very hard to extend Samardzija for almost two years. Dude wanted out, and they did well to maximize the return with two impact prospects.

[RockRaines]

But by all accounts, they tried very hard to extend Samardzija for almost two years. Dude wanted out, and they did well to maximize the return with two impact prospects.

He'll get more than offered on the open market though. They wanted him to take a pay cut to stay for a crap shoot of a rebuilding process. No thanks.

[witesoxfan]

He'll get more than offered on the open market though. They wanted him to take a pay cut to stay for a crap shoot of a rebuilding process. No thanks.

 

That's the thing I don't understand. What's the Cubs' ultimate end game here? Is it "acquire ALL the prospects?" They seem to be collecting talent with no real direction moving forward. I don't understand what they're shooting for.

[LittleHurt05]

That's the thing I don't understand. What's the Cubs' ultimate end game here? Is it "acquire ALL the prospects?" They seem to be collecting talent with no real direction moving forward. I don't understand what they're shooting for.

 

The consensus seems to be that once these guys are ready to play, they will have traded a few for some pitching and then will open the pocketbooks for the rest of their arms. Problem is, when you pay top dollar for a FA pitcher, that can be a crapshoot and is only a good idea for a year or two. Plus, with their attendance plummeting and the Ricketts crying poor, how much money will they actually have to spend?

[Dick Allen]

The Cubs obviously aren't winning this year or next, so you make it like a draft and take the best players available for guys you don't want to pay more than $100 million for when they are over 30 and don't have a long track record of success.

 

With the way pitchers are dropping, maybe waiting until they are ready to win makes the most sense before acquiring them. If Bryant, Baez, Russell, Rizzo.... live up to the hype, they should easily be able to acquire needed pitching down the road. They do have enough hitters now where even if you factor some will bust, they should have a pretty good offense in the next few seasons.

Edited July 7, 2014 by Dick Allen

[iamshack]

That's the thing I don't understand. What's the Cubs' ultimate end game here? Is it "acquire ALL the prospects?" They seem to be collecting talent with no real direction moving forward. I don't understand what they're shooting for.

Don't you think they're trying to put together the biggest collection of talented young players into the same window as possible?

 

They're accumulating assets, and they're accumulating the ones they believe have the most value. Then when the time comes, they'll trade the assets they don't need for those that they do need.

 

The obvious risk is that they miss the aforementioned "when the time comes."

[witesoxfan]

Don't you think they're trying to put together the biggest collection of talented young players into the same window as possible?

 

They're accumulating assets, and they're accumulating the ones they believe have the most value. Then when the time comes, they'll trade the assets they don't need for those that they do need.

 

The obvious risk is that they miss the aforementioned "when the time comes."

 

As a fan though (if I were a Cubs fan), I'd hope for a bit more direction. It's admirable how much talent they have accumulated, but it just seems aimless at this point.

 

They almost seem to be getting to the Royals point of a rebuild where they don't want to trade their talent because it's so good, but they also don't want to make any significant moves because it would be wasteful while they're good players eat up arbitration years. At that point, they end up trying to just get value for them rather than doing anything else. For a team like the A's, who are fully loaded now, it makes sense because they can't spend as much. For a team like the Cubs, who can absolutely support a $120+ million payroll, you'd hope they'd be pointed more towards the area of contention. Instead, they're one of the 4-5 worst teams in the league again.

[dpd9189]

I think the Cubs did well. Samardjiza is a nice pitcher but that's as far as it goes. He's not worth the $100 mil he's asking for. If he's worth that then Sale is worth about $140-$150 mil when his time comes for a long term deal. I think it was a good deal for both teams but Oakland better win it this year because I think Beane unloads Samardjiza in the offseason. No title + trading away a top 6-7 prospect in MLB + eventually trading JS = Failure.

 

As for the Northsiders lack of pitching, they'll probably start acquiring some this offseason. God knows they have the $$$ and prospects for it. If they don't it'd be a real slap in the face to their fans.

[caulfield12]

I think the Cubs did well. Samardjiza is a nice pitcher but that's as far as it goes. He's not worth the $100 mil he's asking for. If he's worth that then Sale is worth about $140-$150 mil when his time comes for a long term deal. I think it was a good deal for both teams but Oakland better win it this year because I think Beane unloads Samardjiza in the offseason. No title + trading away a top 6-7 prospect in MLB + eventually trading JS = Failure.

As for the Northsiders lack of pitching, they'll probably start acquiring some this offseason. God knows they have the $$ and prospects for it. If they don't it'd be a real slap in the face to their fans.

 

 

All depends on what they get back for him. Oakland has six pitchers already...they have Milone parked there in AAA with a 2.62 ERA and 6-0 record in his last 11 starts but no spot in the rotation nevertheless.

 

If anything, it's more like the Jackson for Hudson/Holmberg move, or its equivalent in 2014. Sacrificing part of the future for a "win now/no excuses" mentality amongst the players.

 

With Cespedes on the market after 2015...their window is this year and next. That's pretty much it before they have to reload/retool again.

Edited July 7, 2014 by caulfield12