A Realistic Offseason

[ChiSox59]

19 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

again.... 70 of those games you listed have a bad hitter at DH... makes no sense carrying 3 C. Grandal's entire value is dependent on him playing C.. He is not a DH

I can basically guarantee you that if Collins is on the major league roster, there will be 3 catchers on it.  They are not going to relegate Collins to pure backup catcher duties at this point.  If Collins is on the team, he is going to play, and that is going to be a time-share at C, 1B and DH.  I am not ready to completely write-off Collins as a "bad hitter" at this stage, but definitely understand your concern there.  However, the scenario I describe is an ENORMOUS upgrade over what we ran out at DH/C/1B in 2018, so not sure why that suddenly doesn't work in your mind.

I too would prefer the Sox sign JDM to DH, Grandal to catch, resign Abreu to play 1B, find a suitable RF and some SP.  But I also live in reality and realize the Sox are unlikely to exceed $125M payroll.  The Grandal/Abreu/McCann/Collins tandem sharing C, DH and 1B duties makes a ton of sense.  You may not like it, but Grandal has a career OBP of .348 and OPS + of 115.  Obviously that profiles better at catcher than DH, but he isn't going to be able to catch 150 games, so you work his bat in elsewhere.  It makes sense to me, and to a lot other people who pay a lot of attention - including non-White Sox associated people like Mike Petriello who says Grandal is an amazing fit for the White Sox.  

The Sox need to find a way to get more lineup balance, while also improving team defense.  The available free agents are very right handed, and the better bats are poor defenders.  You don't sign a guy just because he is lefty and switch hitter, but that is something that needs to be considered and oftentimes ignored here.  Moncada can't be the only legitimate bat in the lineup that hits lefthanded.  

5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I'm advocating we sign Grandal to a multi year deal and still keep McCann for 2020 as a backup. 

I know. You and I are on the same page.  

[ChiSox59]

8 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

So we're trading McCann or Collins? 

No.  McCann is the backup catcher (takes Gios starts and some starts against LHP).  Collins is a part time platoon player that gets occasional starts at catcher, 1b and DH against RHP. 

Not that complicated.  

Edited October 23, 2019 by ChiSox59

[SCCWS]

3 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Grandal 100 games catching, 40 games DH

Abreu 120 games 1B, 30 games DH

Collins 60 games catching, 40 games DH

Gennett 50 games DH, 50 games 2B, 15 games 3B, 15 games OF

You have lost me. In this scenario, you have released McCann and made Collins your back-up?  I don't think they can assume Collins is a #2 and if Grandal got hurt they are screwed. If they sign Grandal, I think they catch McCann the other 60 games. Let Collins catch a year at AAA and see how he progresses.  

Also Grandal had as bad a 2nd half as McCann. Historically, Grandal struggles in the 2nd half. Maybe only catching him 100 games vs his usual 130 will prevent his 2nd half drop-off. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, cjgalloway said:

loll.. so who DHs the 100 games when he is catching? McCann?  Collins?  The whole, "lets carry 3 catchers so they can alternate at DH" is a complete and utter joke when 2 of those can't hit.. 

It’s called platooning.  McCann is well above league average vs LHP over his career and Collins was league average against RHP in first MLB stint despite a horrendous start bringing down his numbers.  My guess is those two can give you quality offensive production if used correctly.  And Grandal giving you ~120 wRC+ production is more than fine at the DH spot.  To me, the idea makes perfect sense and provides far more flexibility than bringing on JDM.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, cjgalloway said:

again.... 70 of those games you listed have a bad hitter at DH... makes no sense carrying 3 C. Grandal's entire value is dependent on him playing C.. He is not a DH

Outside of Cruz & JDM, what DHs put up a better wRC+ than Grandal last year?  You are seriously sleeping on his bat.

[ChiSox59]

38 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

It’s called platooning.  McCann is well above league average vs LHP over his career and Collins was league average against RHP in first MLB stint despite a horrendous start bringing down his numbers.  My guess is those two can give you quality offensive production if used correctly.  And Grandal giving you ~120 wRC+ production is more than fine at the DH spot.  To me, the idea makes perfect sense and provides far more flexibility than bringing on JDM.

I just don’t understand. It’s a match made in heaven with their roster situation, especially if married to Abreu. Thankfully I think the Sox are very interested in Grandal, but it takes two to tango. Have to imagine 4/$75M at the most gets it done. Better offer than he turned down from the Mets last season before taking the 1 year deal. There should be a good deal of interest across the league. 

[Bob Sacamano]

I'll be honest: carrying 3 catchers sounds like a waste of a roster spot. 

[Jack Parkman]

I think that we should do the offseason plan project like they do on SoxMachine. Anyone up for creating the thread? 

[ChiSox59]

5 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I'll be honest: carrying 3 catchers sounds like a waste of a roster spot. 

Don’t look at Collins as a catcher then. He probably won’t be doing it much. He’s 1B/DH type that you can occasionally play at catcher and allows you to DH your other 2 catchers on a regular basis without any concern.

For the plan to work, you need Grandal. Without him, may as well just send Collins to AAA to play everyday. 

Edited October 23, 2019 by ChiSox59

[TheFutureIsNear]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Don’t look at Collins as a catcher then. He probably won’t be doing it much. He’s 1B/DH type that you can occasionally play at catcher and allows you to DH your other 2 catchers on a regular basis without any concern.

For the plan to work, you need Grandal. Without him, may as well just send Collins to AAA to play everyday. 

At that point I just trade him. I think the organization probably knows whether he’s going to be a catcher or not at this point. If he’s not then he needs to get regular AB’s at 1B/DH. He doesn’t have anything left to prove in the minors and will be 25 before the season. I mean, we do need LH hitters and high OBP guys...kinda sounds like Zack Collins. But I know everyone here has much bigger dreams and wouldn’t be happy with that.
If they plan to have Madrigal start the year in the minors I don’t hate the idea of signing Moose and playing him at 2B early and giving Collins a crack at DH vs RH early. If Collins succeeds it’s a good problem to have, if not Moose is the DH anyway. 
 

On the other hand, I don’t think he has a ton of value, but I think he would be a fairly interesting trade chip to some teams. Could be a way to fill a spot in the back of the rotation without overspending on questionable talent in free agency

Edited October 24, 2019 by TheFutureIsNear

[Bob Sacamano]

15 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

At that point I just trade him. I think the organization probably knows whether he’s going to be a catcher or not at this point. If he’s not then he needs to get regular AB’s at 1B/DH. He doesn’t have anything left to prove in the minors and will be 25 before the season. I mean, we do need LH hitters and high OBP guys...kinda sounds like Zack Collins. But I know everyone here has much bigger dreams and wouldn’t be happy with that.
If they plan to have Madrigal start the year in the minors I don’t hate the idea of signing Moose and playing him at 2B early and giving Collins a crack at DH vs RH early. If Collins succeeds it’s a good problem to have, if not Moose is the DH anyway. 
 

On the other hand, I don’t think he has a ton of value, but I think he would be a fairly interesting trade chip to some teams. Could be a way to fill a spot in the back of the rotation without overspending on questionable talent in free agency

I kinda have a small feeling he gets moved. For what, who knows. 

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I just don’t understand. It’s a match made in heaven with their roster situation, especially if married to Abreu. Thankfully I think the Sox are very interested in Grandal, but it takes two to tango. Have to imagine 4/$75M at the most gets it done. Better offer than he turned down from the Mets last season before taking the 1 year deal. There should be a good deal of interest across the league. 

There's too much risk of an overpay if you're going beyond three years...considering his age and the second half of his 2019 season.

[pcq]

2 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

I'll be honest: carrying 3 catchers sounds like a waste of a roster spot. 

Only with a guy rotating three spots as 26th man. Rosters should be 28. 

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, pcq said:

Only with a guy rotating three spots as 26th man. Rosters should be 28. 

It works if 2 of 3 can hit...making the other useful off the bench in late innings, and the 3rd as a defensive replacement.

Of course, the big question is whether Collins can actually hit well enough at the big league level to justify his existence.

[thxfrthmmrs]

In my perfect offseason I would have a 3 way trade of Collins, Basabe/Adolfo, and Bush to a third team for Nimmo after signing Grandal and Moose.

I’ve been one of the first ones to hop on the Moose train also but quickly warming up to Grandal and even preferring him to JDM given how much he’s better than just about every other catcher at framing.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

6 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I still can't figure out how a guy who led the league in passed balls three times and was benched in the playoffs twice for his horrific catching is (analytically) considered a great catcher.

And THIS is a major red flag to me regarding Grandal. Also, if he’s as good as metrics seem to portray, why could he only muster a 1 year $16M deal (with 2nd year mutual option) last winter? That confirms to me that the rest of the league is just as skeptical of the guy as me.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And THIS is a major red flag to me regarding Grandal. Also, if he’s as good as metrics seem to portray, why could he only muster a 1 year $16M deal (with 2nd year mutual option) last winter? That confirms to me that the rest of the league is just as skeptical of the guy as me.

In no small part because he received a qualifying offer and teams will not give away draft picks without a fight. In another part, because he turned down a multi-year deal with the Mets expecting a better deal to come along, the Mets said fine and filled their catcher spot elsewhere.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

46 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

In no small part because he received a qualifying offer and teams will not give away draft picks without a fight. In another part, because he turned down a multi-year deal with the Mets expecting a better deal to come along, the Mets said fine and filled their catcher spot elsewhere.

True stud catchers very rarely hit the open market in their prime. The top catchers of the past couple decades have all been extended before they hit free agency - Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina, Buster Posney, Brian McCann, Jorge Posada. Why would the Dodgers not extend Grandal if he’s truly a top 2 catcher in baseball? Why wouldn’t they bring him back at a cost equal to or greater than the relatively minimal offer by the Brewers (and not lose a draft pick in the process)? Why would teams be so deterred about signing a top 2 catcher in baseball because of a QO but look past the QO attachment quite easily for many other high profile free agents in recent years? It just doesn’t add up.

[Buehrle>Wood]

3 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

I'll be honest: carrying 3 catchers sounds like a waste of a roster spot. 

26 roster spots. Pitchers must pitch to 3 batters. It makes a lot of sense.

I know front offices cant resist an extra shitty pitcher but god it just doesnt make sense. 

[ron883]

Anybody else hesitant about going after Strasburg with the amount of innings he's pitched this year? His career high and MANY more than he has pitched in a while. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Anybody else hesitant about going after Strasburg with the amount of innings he's pitched this year? His career high and MANY more than he has pitched in a while. 

Yes

[caulfield12]

24 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

True stud catchers very rarely hit the open market in their prime. The top catchers of the past couple decades have all been extended before they hit free agency - Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina, Buster Posney, Brian McCann, Jorge Posada. Why would the Dodgers not extend Grandal if he’s truly a top 2 catcher in baseball? Why wouldn’t they bring him back at a cost equal to or greater than the relatively minimal offer by the Brewers (and not lose a draft pick in the process)? Why would teams be so deterred about signing a top 2 catcher in baseball because of a QO but look past the QO attachment quite easily for many other high profile free agents in recent years? It just doesn’t add up.

The only other "top" option in the next cycle or two is likely to be Realmuto, unless you're willing to take a chance on Sal Perez at this stage in his career.

There just aren't that many true two-way threats anymore.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

12 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The only other "top" option in the next cycle or two is likely to be Realmuto, unless you're willing to take a chance on Sal Perez at this stage in his career.

There just aren't that many true two-way threats anymore.

The question is...is Grandal truly a top option at the position worthy of significant years and dollars? Based on how other teams responded to his availability last winter I’d say the answer is no. Now If he’s willing to sign for 3/$40M or something along those lines sure bring him in but I think it would be a mistake to give him more than 3 years or more than ~$14M AAV over several years. I know many have but I also haven’t given up on Collins yet as the starting catcher from 2021 onward.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

He was 8th in baseball in rCERA, meaning despite having a bad pitching staff, they outperformed their season end numbers when he caught in relation to Castillo.

rCERA is likely the best publically available metric for evaluating a receivers impact on his team.

Grandal ranked 47th of 49 qualified catchers in rCERA. He is simply a poor receiver and game caller.

I understand why you like McCann. Pitchers like him. He's a leader . He does his homework. He made adjustments. During the 2nd half slump I stuck up for him against the guys who were all jumping on the "he is who we thought he was" train.

All that being said I don't believe Grandal is a luxury. He is simply the best free agent out there to help the Sox in 2 areas that they sorely lack which is power  (specifically LH ) and OBP who would be affordable if we can all agree that starting pitching is going to command the most money spent this off season. McCann just might not be around after next year. Grandal should get a 3 year at minimum contract,

No matter what anyone thinks of McCann he out bWar'd Grandal 3.5 to 2.8 in around 80 less AB's so I have to think McCann got more credit for defense especially when Grandal is usually among the league leaders in passed balls. Both McCann and Grandal hit left handers very well so with a lefty pitching I can easily see Grandal DHing while McCann catches with Collins on the bench.Catcher is the one position that really needs to be shared when it is so demanding both physically and mentally.

 

 

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I understand why you like McCann. Pitchers like him. He's a leader . He does his homework. He made adjustments. During the 2nd half slump I stuck up for him against the guys who were all jumping on the "he is who we thought he was" train.

All that being said I don't believe Grandal is a luxury. He is simply the best free agent out there to help the Sox in 2 areas that they sorely lack which is power  (specifically LH ) and OBP who would be affordable if we can all agree that starting pitching is going to command the most money spent this off season. McCann just might not be around after next year. Grandal should get a 3 year at minimum contract,

No matter what anyone thinks of McCann he out bWar'd Grandal 3.5 to 2.8 in around 80 less AB's so I have to think McCann got more credit for defense especially when Grandal is usually among the league leaders in passed balls. Both McCann and Grandal hit left handers very well so with a lefty pitching I can easily see Grandal DHing while McCann catches with Collins on the bench.Catcher is the one position that really needs to be shared when it is so demanding both physically and mentally.

 

 

Agreed, would much rather invest 3/$40-50 million into Grandal than 50% more for Ozuna...at a less critical position.

Not to mention there's nothing in our system after Collins, and Zavala/Mercedes just aren't realistic options at this point.

In RF, we still have multiple possibilities of getting 2-3 fWAR production on the cheap from Walker/Adolfo/Rutherford.

Being solid up the middle (C/SS/2B/CF) is a HUGE advantage, and we're almost there.   Anderson's going to have to shore up his sloppiness and concentration errors, but having Madrigal around will really benefit him, IMO.

 

 

Edited October 24, 2019 by caulfield12