In the wake of the Kopech injury, as the season has turned more and more meaningless, I've been thinking a lot about Moncada and Anderson's numbers and whether they are "good" or not.
What's strange about this is that 20 years ago, I would have thought for two young players 18ish homers and 40+ xbh, as fairly good, batting average aside. Add in Moncada's walk rate and Anderson's stolen bases, and some of their respective defensive plays and upside, and I think years ago many would have thought "these players are just fine, they just need time"
However, that's NOT what's going on. The board is at least somewhat divided on whether both are going to be as good as they can be to significantly contribute to this team.
Then I thought about Joe Crede.
Joe Crede was one of the most frustrating players to root for from 2003-2004. After his rookie season of 2002 (he had a handful of PAs in 2000-2001), he had a very difficult time keeping his batting average, on base percentage, and OPS high enough to be acceptable for the next two seasons. He also had a difficult time keeping his WAR up, even with his defensive prowess.
In his first 279 MLB PAs, he did very well - an over .800 OPS, great defense, tons of promise, WAR of 0.8 (with only 40% of a season).
However, over the next 1123 MLB PAs, from 2003-2004, he did NOT do as well: a .251/.304/.424/.728, with a combined WAR of 3.2, averaging 1.6 per season. It obviously wasn't horrible or anything, but it wasn't something that I think White Sox fans felt they could necessarily live with as a long term option. My recollection was that fans were pretty unsure about him, in general. His two saving graces were his ability to hit homers and his defense.
In 2003-2004 Joe Crede was 25 and 26 years old, and at the end of that time he had 1402 MLB PAs to his credit.
As of the end of 2004, his stats were: .256/.304/.434/.738 career. Not bad, but just a seemingly just little above replacement. His career WAR was roughly 3.8 at this point.
HOWEVER....
The next three complete seasons (and the injury shortened 2007) that Crede played were his best, and indubitably he was utterly essential to our championship run. I don't think anyone would argue that if we didn't have Joe Crede we would have won the 2005 championship.
His combined 2005-2008 stats were: .258/.308/.453/.761 and his WAR over that span was 7.6 - twice the value of the previous four years over about the same number of PAs.
All of this is to say that Moncada's WAR is currently 2.4 for his career at just 23 with about 800 PAs, and Anderson's is 4.5 at 25 through a little over 1400 PAs (ironically exactly the point Crede broke out himself)
I think because Moncada was acquired in the Sale trade and we all expect instant gratification for players there is very little patience for MLB development.
However, I think Crede (even as a lower rated prospect initially) is a great example of a player who gave us well over 1000 PAs at the MLB level before he was able to truly break out.
Thoughts?