I posted this on another thread:
If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO.
Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst).
In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%, his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly.
Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.
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The point is that I think, yes, he was lucky he didn't do worse this year, BUT, there is very real upside because if he's able to get to make some mechanical changes to improve his command