It’s really time for Giolito to get things going. He’s currently sporting a 3.99 FIP on the season and his xwOBA would put him in the 56th percentile, which is obviously down significantly vs. the prior two seasons. He simply isn’t getting as many K’s & whiffs as he normally does.
As I’ve mentioned previously, I think Lucas has been battling some minor release point issues that have impacted his command. Perhaps coinciding with that is a huge drop-off in the productivity of his slider. His whiff rate on the pitch is down 17 points and the xSLG is up 100 points. He’s definitely hung a bit too many center cut this year and that’s resulted in some serious hard contact. However, it’s not just meatballs that are the problem. Last year he threw nearly 40% of his sliders in the three quadrants outside the zone that are down & away from the batter, whereas this year he’s only sitting at 20%. That’s a massive difference in location and I think again it ties back to general command issues he’s been battling.
The 4 seamer is a similar story with his whiff rate down nearly 10 points vs. prior year. The velocity & movement aren’t vastly different than last year and I think it’s once again a command / location issue. Looking at the heat maps, nearly 26% of Lucas’ 4 seamers were in the three quadrants on the right side (batter’s view) of the plate center & up. This year he’s only at 19% in this area with a lot more pitches coming in on the left half of the plate and nearly 6% more coming in below the zone. I’m assuming he’s just missing his spots, but those aren’t helping his whiff rate and are leading to more, harder hit contact (barrels up substantially vs. PY). Again, I think some of this may be mechanical / release point related and hopefully he can figure that out soon. Despite pitching a little better in recent starts, it doesn’t look like much has changed in that regard since opening day unfortunately.