Ive written about this in another thread, but the Sox do have a lot of money committed to '22, '23, and '24 as they don't have too many contacts coming off the books and a lot of the young core is due for Arb raises or steep increases from their extensions.
For comparison sake, the Sox have $85M (not including the Arb 2 years for Madrigal and Cease and Arb 1 years for Kopech and Crotchet) in payroll committed to 2024 and the Cubs have just $5M.
The Sox financial commitments are pretty much entirely healthy. There arent any true albatross contacts and the long term commitments all seem like good investments at this point. The roughly $52M/year investment into Keuchel, Hendricks, and Grandal will ultimately impact what theyre able to spend in the coming summers, however.
For 2022, the Sox have $116M committed (The Arb raises for Gio and Engle and the buyout from Eaton probably even out), but need to replace Rodon and Lynn who have been aces for a whopping $12M combined. The Sox will also have to patch up the bench and bullpen as their are a few expiring contacts (Lamb and Hamilton) and arb casualties (Marshall, Fry, and maybe Leury).
The Sox need to go cheap and homegrown for as much of these spots as possible. Eloy can replace Eaton, defense be damned. I think Kopech needs to be converted back into being a starter. That would allow the Sox to afford to retain Lynn or Rodon and have money to address their other needs. The only other in house option that will likely be ready to start in 2022 is Stiever and Mike Wright who would be significant downgrades, but are serviceable As for relievers, Burdi and Medieros would be the in house options to fill in whats missing in the pen and Pilkington (maybe as a starter) and Gomez are also intriguing.
As for hitting, next up in the pipeline is Burger, Sheets, Zavala, Cespedes, Adolfo, and Romy Gonzalez. I would love to see Burger and Sheets get some big league at bats this year and to see how well how they both can defend. It's also important to see if Yermin ends up more toward his player of the month April or his .567 OPS since May. It would be huge if he maintains his standing as a cheap long-term stars in the lineup along with Madrigal and Vaughn.
If there was ever a time to increase the payroll this next offseason is it. The 2021-22 free agent class (pending extensions) is stacked which fits perfectly in this window over the next 2 years. Yoan goes from 6.8M in 21 to 24.8M in 24. Robert goes from $3,5M in 21 to 12.5M in 24. Eloy goes from 4.3 to 13.8. Timmy Goes from 7.2 to 14.
Yoan, Robert, Eloy, Hendricks and TA cost the Sox $33.1M in 2021. The commitment to those same players goes up to 80.1M in 2024. As I said earlier, that doesnt include the Arb raises/extensions for Madrigal, Cease, Kopech and Crotchet. Gio and Keuchel are also UFAs in 2024 so thats two more rotation spots to fill. If the Sox don't develop their young pitching, they will have the same problem the Cubs had come 2024. If I were Rick Hahn, I would consider my window 2021-2023 and make whatever moves they need to get over the hump.